Form Factors

La Liga has a relatively strong home bias, with home teams winning 48% and losing 27% of their games since the start of the 1999/2000 season (3800 matches). Last season the figures remained constant with the home team averaging a PPG of 1.67 compared with an average of 1.69 PPG since 1999/2000.

The performance of the Home team over their last three home matches is the key indicator for their next game in Spain. However, for the away team a form over their last five overall games (home and away) provide good correlations for the next match outcome.

When a good home team has strong form (7-9 points in their last three home games) visits of away sides with form of 0-5 points in their last five games sees the home team win 56% of matches. However, if a strong away side (9-15 points in their last five games) comes to town then they win just 44%, losing 29%.

Even when a strong away side (9-15 points in their last five matches) visits a weak home team (0-3 points in their last three home games) the weaker home team holds the advantage. In such matches over the last 10 seasons, the home side has won 37% of the time, but lost in 33%.

Key points and what to look for:

• Home teams’ last three game home form and away teams’ five game form.
• Home teams who have taken 7-9 points from their last three matches dominate away teams with a low and average five game form (0-8 points).
• Away teams who have gained 9-15 points in their last five games don’t dominant over home teams who have taken 0-3 points from their last three home matches.

Goals

La Liga matches average 2.65 goals per game (1.53 for the home side and 1.12 for the away team) which is relatively high in comparison with other European leagues. Since 1999/2000 only marginally under half of the games (49%) featured three goals or more.

The correlation between goals for over the last 10 games and matches with +2.5 goals is extremely weak; however, the most dominant factor is the away team’s recent overall record (last 10 games home and away).

Matches with +2.5 goals are most common when the away team have had +2.5 goals in seven or more of their last 10 matches. The highest percentage of matches with three goals or more occurs when such an away side is paired with a home team with a similarly high 10 game average of 7-10 games featuring +2.5 goals – these produce 59% over goals matches.

Interestingly, when a home sides with low scoring (0-4 +2.5 goals in the last 10 home matches) hosts a low scoring away team (0-4 +2.5 goals in the last 10 all matches) there is a strong case for low scoring matches, with 58% of these games ending with -2.5 goals.

However, due to the poor correlations the majority of form related pairing produce an outcome of around 48-50% which is bang on the leagues average.

Key points to look for:

• Form plays very little part in indicating the number of goals that will be scored in the proceeding match.

Clean Sheets

An analysis of the home and away teams’ record for clean sheets and ability to score provides some very useful indicators towards the chances of clean sheets, over-goals, and match result. With only a marginal difference in La Liga’s scoring rates, it is not a surprise to see the average home clean sheet figure is 33%, with the figure for away clean sheets at 22%.

There is a very strong correlation between a home teams clean sheet record and their opponent’s record of failing to score. This is most relevant when a team with a strong clean sheet record (at least five clean sheets in their last 10 home games) plays at home and moreover, is strong regardless of their opposition – with 35% of teams in the high home clean sheet band blanking their opponents. There is a stronger home clean sheet patterns when away teams who have struggled to score (failing to score in at least five of their last 10 away games) play on the road, irrespective of the strength of their opponents’ record - 37% home clean sheets.

With the away team clean sheet correlations almost as strong, home sides who have struggled to score (failing to score in at least four of their last 10 away games) continue to be blanked irrespective of the strength of their opponents’ record, 27% away clean sheets.

Key points and what to look for:

• For home clean sheets look for home teams with five or more clean sheets in their last 10 home matches or away teams who have failed to score in five or more of their last 10 away matches – CS in 35 and 37% of home matches respectively.
• For away clean sheets the home side’s recent record of failing to score is the most important factor. Failing to score in four or more of their last 10 home matches leads to CS in 27% of away matches.

Half-time draws and first half clean sheets

Since 1999/2000, La Liga has seen a relatively low number of half-time stalemates, with 43% of matches drawn at the interval and only 31% of games ending 0-0 after 45 minutes. The statistics show us that there is a poor relationship between the ability of a side to keep a first-half clean sheet and draw the opening half.

However, as a more general trend it can be said with some confidence that the better the home team’s first half clean sheet record and the worse the away team’s first half scoring record the better the home teams does, and vice-versa. The best indicator for both the home and away sides is their recent overall first-half clean sheet record in the last 10 matches (home and away).

Key points and what to look for:

• There is no link between the number of half time draws/first half clean sheets in their last 10 games and the likelihood of a half-time draw in their next such game.

HT/FT

On average home teams in La Liga will W/W 28% of their games while they suffer L/L reverses in 15% of matches, interestingly both the D/W and D/D are more common occurring in 16% of matches each.

With strong correlations there are many factors which can be used when predicting home W/W’s, however, the dominant aspect is when the home side’s recent overall (last 10 games home and away) W/W form is strong, with 36% of the next matches being W/W if a side has recorded 4-10 W/W’s in their last 10 matches. The next most pertinent correlation being the home sides last 10 home form, with 33% of the next matches being W/W if a side has recorded 4-10 W/W’s in their last 10 home matches.

When looking for away W/W’s, correlations are again strong. The most important of these are the away team’s W/W record in their last 10 matches, which produces 20% away W/W’s with four or more W/W’s in their last 10 matches (home and away) and the home sides L/L record in their last 10 home games – 19% away W/W’s with four or more L/L’s in their last 10 home matches.

Key points to look for:

• For home W/Ws look for matches where the home team has W/W in four or more of their last 10 matches (home W/W in 36% of matches) or the home team has had four or more W/W results in their last 10 home games overall (home W/W in 33% of games). When both criteria have been met the home team has recorded W/W in 37% of matches.
• For away W/Ws look for matches where the away team has W/W in four or more of their last 10 matches (away W/W in 20% of matches) or the home team has had four or more L/L results in their last 10 home games (away W/W in 19% of games). When both criteria have been met the away team has recorded W/W in 22% of matches.