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Form Factors

There is a distinct home advantage in the Eredivise with the home team going W48%-D22%-L30% in a 1592-game sample over the last five seasons. These figures are appear to stay consistent on a season-to-season basis.

Form is a strong indicator of future performance in the Netherlands. The home side’s home and overall form and the away side’s away and overall form all correlate well with a team’s likely next result. In terms of the best correlation, one should look for how the home team have faired in their previous five home fixtures and how the away team have done in their last three away matches.

The largest supremacy, as expected, arises when a strong home team — one with at least 10 points from their last five home matches — plays host to a weak away side — one with fewer than one point from their previous three away fixtures. When this situation arises a home team can be expected to win 64% (1.56 odds) and lose just 15% (6.67) of the time. Moreover, the home side average a 1.29 goal supremacy in these matches.

Home wins (and losses) are clearly linked to the form of the two sides involved. The chance of either result is boosted further by how extreme the difference in form is of the teams in question. Contrastingly, there is little correlation between any combination of form between the teams and the chance of the match being drawn. The likelihood of the points being shared rarely deviates from around 23% (4.35).

Key points and what to look for:

• Both short and long term form are good indicators of likely next result, particularly if both are strong (or weak). Strong home form is represented by a team with at least 10 points from their last five home matches, whereas a weak away team will have accrued fewer than four points in the same time-span.

Goals

Over the last five seasons there has been an average of 3.00 goals per game in the Eredivisie (1.75 for the home side and 1.25 for the away side). 56% (1.77) of the matches have settled the +2.5 goals market whilst 36% (2.78) have featured at least four scores.

A team’s ‘over’ goals form — the number of +2.5 goals games they have experienced in their last 10 home, away or all games — is an strong indicator of the likelihood of a future ‘over’ goals game. When a strong ‘over’ goals home team — one with at least seven +2.5 goals in their last 10 home matches — hosts any side, regardless of the opponents over goals form, there exists at least a 57% (1.75) chance of a +2.5 goals match. When a low ‘over’ goals team — one with fewer than four +2.5 goals games in their last 10 league matches — hosts a  low away ‘over’ goals team — one with fewer than four +2.5 goals in their last 10 away league matches — there is just a 43% (2.33) chance of a +2.5 goals match.


Key points and what to look for:

• Look first for the number of +2.5 goals matches a team has experienced in their last 10 home, away or all games when assessing the chance of an over goals match.

• In the Eredivisie a high over goals team can only be regarded as such if they have had at least seven +2.5 goals games in their last 10 fixtures.

• The chance of an under goals game is heavily influenced by the amount of under goals games a team has been involved in during their last 10 league matches.

Clean Sheets

Home teams have kept a clean sheet in 33% (3.06) of their home matches since the start of the 2004/05 season. Throughout this period they have failed to net in 21% (4.76) of their home fixtures.

A team who have kept at least five clean sheets in their last 10 home matches can be expected to stop their opponents scoring in their next match 44% (2.27) of the time.

There exists a strong correlation between a team’s form and their chance of keeping an away clean sheet, although even in the most extreme case there is never more than a 28% (3.57) of the away side doing so.


Key points and what to look for:

• Look for the number of clean sheets a team has kept in their last 10 fixtures.

• Teams with a strong clean sheet record, at least four in their last 10 matches, win 56% (1.78) of their next home matches.

Half-time draws and first half clean sheets

626 of the 1592 (39%, 2.56) Eredivisie matches since 2004/05 have been level at half-time and this has remained constant over the last two seasons. There is a large difference between the number of half-time draws and the number of goalless first halves (28%, 3.55) in the Dutch league.

Half-time clean sheets (for or against) show a better correlation with the half-time win or loss chance than with the half-time draw expectation.

There is a 42% (2.38) chance of a half-time draw when a team who have failed to score in at least seven of their last 10 first-halves play.

Key points and what to look for:

• Regardless of the teams involved there tends to be a 37%-42% (2.7-2.38) chance of a half-time draw in the Eredivisie.

HT/FT

As expected in a league with a strong home supremacy, there exists a strong chance of a home W/W — 30% (3.31) of the matches over the last five seasons have ended in this fashion, whereas just 16% (6.27) have been L/L affairs.

A strong W/W team is one who have kept at least four clean sheets in their last 10 league matches. There exists a very strong correlation between these team’s W/W form and their chance of recording a W/W in their next game. A strong W/W team can be expected to register a similar double result in their next match 47% (2.13) of the time. These teams suffer a L/L in just 8% (12.5) of their next league matches.

Key points and what to look for:

• Strong W/W trends tend to continue in the Eredivisie, whilst L/L’s are rare in the league as a whole.

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