With Form Lab PRO you can access the form for this League and over 20 other World Leagues annually.

Click Here to subscribe to Form Lab PRO and have a free 14 day trial.

Form factors

Looking back at the past 10 seasons (5560 matches) of matches in the Championship the home team has W45%-D28%-L28% of games. Looking at how teams have performed over their last one, three, and five games, both overall (last x games home and away) or home/away respectively (i.e. last five home matches if they are the home team) and what the subsequent result was we have sought to establish the strongest form trends.

The strongest correlations between form and match outcome are seen for short-term form with the strongest for the home side being their last game overall and the strongest for the away side being their last three matches overall. In fact the second strongest form timeline for the away side is also their last match overall.

There is a good linear relationship between different teams form with results improving consistently as one team’s form improves and the opposition’s worsens.

Key points and what to look for:

• Form has a short lifespan with one-game overall form the best for home teams and three-game overall the best for away sides.
• Home teams that have won their last match against away teams with fewer than four points from their last three overall matches have W52-D28-L21% in 1197 matches.
• Home teams that have lost their last match against away teams with six or more points from their last three overall games have W38-D28-L34% in 701 matches.

Goals

Matches in the Championship average 2.55 goals per game (1.45 for the home side and 1.09 for the away) and 47% of games have contained three or more goals.

We have compared the home and away teams last 10 matches both overall and home/away respectively to see how the number of over-goals matches they have had affects the chance of over or under-goals in the next game.

There is a reasonable correlation between teams’ recent goals form and the next match with the chance of an over-goals game generally increasing fairly in-line with the teams having had more over-goals in their recent matches. However, the increases are not large and do not generally move away from the mean by too much.

The best correlations and most useful results were found by comparing both teams recent overall goals record. In these results the number of over-goals matches was lowest at 44% from 264 games when both teams had fewer than four over-goals matches in their last 10 overall games. Similarly the highest number of over-goals resulted in match-ups where both teams had six or more over-goals games in their last 10 overall matches – this gave +2.5 goals in 51% of 536 games.

Key points and what to look for:

• Team’s recent overall goals records are the best guides.
• For under-goals matches look for matches where both teams have had fewer than four over-goals in their last 10 overall matches.
• For over-goals matches look for matches where both teams have had six or more over-goals in their last 10 overall matches.

Clean sheets

The average home clean sheet figure in the Championship is 33% and the away clean sheet figure is 23%.
We have compared the home and away teams last 10 matches both overall and home/away respectively to see how the number of clean sheets and failures to score have affected the chance of either a home or away clean sheet in the next game.

The correlations between the home and away team’s recent clean sheet and scoring records show that the chance of clean sheets is largely determined by the away teams ability to score (in the case of a home clean sheet) and the home teams ability to score (in the case of an away clean sheet).

While the home team’s recent record of keeping clean sheets provides a good correlation with match outcome (the better their clean sheet record the more they win) it has virtually no correlation with the chance of another home clean sheet. Similarly the away team’s recent clean sheet records produce excellent correlations for the match outcome although there is more of a link to the chance of an away clean sheet.

Where the away team has a strong recent record for failing to score either overall (four or more fail to scores) or just away (five or more fails to score) there have been home clean sheets in 36% of games (sample of 1569 games for overall and 1118 games for away).

Where the home team has failed to score in four or more of their last 10 home matches there have been away clean sheets in 27% of 936 games. This rises to 28% from 324 games when the away team has also kept three or more clean sheets in their last 10 away games.

Key points and what to look for:

• Opposition team’s ability to score is the dominant factor for clean sheets rather than a team’s ability to keep clean sheets.
• For home clean sheets look for away teams that have failed to score in either half their last 10 away games or four or more of their last 10 games overall.
• For away clean sheets look for home teams that have failed to score in at least four of their last 10 home matches.

HT/FT

The average amount of home W/W’s in the Championship is 26% while away W/Ws occur 15% of the time.
For establishing the chance of a home W/W the most important individual trends are the home team’s recent home record for W/Ws and the away side’s recent away record for L/Ls. When the home team has had four or more home wins in their last 10 home games they have recorded a W/W in 28% of the following games (1072 matches). Similarly when the away team has had four or more L/Ls in their last 10 away their have been home W/Ws in 28% of the next games (1113 matches). However, when looking at games where both criteria are met the number of W/Ws are only increased to 29% from 282 matches.

By looking at different match-ups the greatest number of home W/Ws is found where the home team has had at least two W/Ws in their last 10 overall games and the away team has had at least four L/Ls in their last 10 overall. This has resulted in home W/Ws in 32% of 386 matches. However an even larger number of W/W results are found when looking at matches where the home team has an average ppg (points per game) more than 0.50 above the opposition with this giving home W/Ws in 36% of 934 matches. Where the home team has also had four or more W/Ws in their last 10 home games this rises to 39% from 264 matches.

For away W/W the most important individual trends are the home and away team’s recent overall records for L/Ls and W/Ws respectively. When the home team has had three or more L/Ls in their last 10 games they have recorded a L/L in 19% of the following games (1560 matches). Similarly when the away team has had three or more W/Ws in their last 10 games their have been away W/Ws in 17% of the next games (1113 matches). However, when looking at games where both criteria are met, the number of away W/Ws is still just 19% from 534 matches.

However the match-up that returns the largest number of away W/Ws is where the home side has had four or more L/Ls in their last 10 games and the away side has had at least two W/Ws in their last 10 away matches which gives an away W/W in 26% of 256 matches. Changing most other criteria doesn’t produce much increase, if any, in the number of W/Ws.

Key points and what to look for:

• For home and away W/Ws there is a good correlation between home and away sides’ recent W/W and L/L records.
• For home W/Ws look for home teams that average at least 0.50 ppg more than their opponents. Ideally this should be coupled with a strong home W/W record.
• For away W/Ws look for home teams that have suffered four or more L/Ls in their last 10 matches overall and away teams that have recorded at least two away W/Ws in their last 10 away games.

With Form Lab PRO you can access the form for this League and over 20 other World Leagues annually.

Click Here to subscribe to Form Lab PRO and have a free 14 day trial.