Though the opening six matches of the season are not necessarily crucial in the bid for the Premiership title, a soft opening fixture list should guarantee a strong start and a likely profit for spread bettors and ante-post traders.

Concentrating on the past six seasons, since Roman Abramovich took the reigns at Stamford Bridge and the concept of the Big Four became valid, a flying start to the season hasn’t proved essential for title-winning aspirations (United gained fewer points than all of their Big Four rivals in the opening six fixtures in each of the past two seasons). Unsurprisingly however, a benign opening fixture list has defined the ability of a Big Four team to start strongly; again United faced a tougher opening clutch of fixtures than their rivals in the last two seasons.

By evaluating their opposition on their finishing league position of the previous season, we can suggest the relative strength simply by adding the finishing positions of the opening six opponents for a combined finishing position, (OCFP) total; the higher the total the easier the start. In the past six seasons, since the Roman Abramovich era and the concept of the Big Four, newly promoted sides have averaged a finishing position of 16th in the Premier League, and therefore are given a notional previous season position of 16th in the OCFP.

In 2003/04, Chelsea had the easiest opening six matches, their OCFP was 69, whilst Arsenal had the second softest opening (60). Chelsea duly accrued the most points after six matches, 16, with Arsenal next best on 14.

In 2004/05, Chelsea (77) and Arsenal (76) had an easier start than Liverpool (73) and Manchester United (62), and after six games Arsenal reversed the previous season’s standing, leading the way on 16 points to Chelsea’s 14, with Liverpool 10 and Manchester United 9 trailing.

In 2005/06, Chelsea won their second consecutive title, and were helped by six opening fixtures that were considerably softer than their opponents. The Blues faced an OCFP of 71, and were the only team in the Roman Abramovich era to win all their opening six matches, indeed the Blues eventually stretched that winning sequence to nine. Manchester United (56), Arsenal (55) and Liverpool (48) all conceded a lot of ground as those OCFP’s indicated they would, gaining just 11, 10 and seven points respectively. Those who were influenced by the opening fixture list, particularly if applying an OCFP, would have been in an extremely healthy trading position, particularly as Manchester United were playing catch-up in the fixture list due to Champions League qualifying matches.

2006/07 is the only example in this six-season sample where an apparently easy opening failed to result in a strong start. Arsenal had struggled to secure fourth place in 2005/06, and that decline was evident early in 2006/07. Despite a very appealing opening sextet of fixtures with an OCFP of 76, the Gunners managed only 11 points. Liverpool again suffered a tough opening with an OCFP of 49 and duly trailed on 10 points, with Chelsea (63) and Manchester United (66) setting the pace on 15 and 13 points respectively.

In the previous four seasons the eventual champions had one of the two easiest opening sextet of fixtures amongst the Big Four. However, in 2007/08 Manchester United eventually won the title despite having a considerably tougher opening (58) than either Arsenal or Liverpool (both 70). Arsenal duly blazed an early trail, posting 16 points form six games against Manchester United and Chelsea’s (57) 11 points apiece. Liverpool’s total of 12 points, though better than the Red Devils and the Blues, indicated that they still fell short considering the evidence of their soft OCFP.

Last season, Manchester United had their toughest set of opening fixtures in the past six seasons; their opposition had an OCFP of just 49. Five of their opponents had finished in the top 12 in 2007/08, and two were Big Four sides. Once again, Sir Alex Ferguson’s side posted the least amount of points (11) of the Big Four teams in the opening six matches. Those who got carried away with Arsenal’s high scoring away victories at Bolton and Blackburn in their opening six games had not taken into account the Gunners exceptionally easy opening. Arsenal’s OCFP was the highest in this six season sample, a massive 84, yet Arsene Wenger’s boys accrued just 12 points. Liverpool gave notice of an impending best ever Premiership season with a 14-point total from an OCFP of just 56, whilst Chelsea’s 12 points from an OCFP of 59 provided evidence of a season that was to finish short of the North-West giants.  

This season Chelsea’s OCFP of 76 in their opening six fixtures is very favourable and comfortably ahead of Manchester United (65) and Liverpool’s (64). However, it is Arsenal who are really up against it with a OCFP of just 48. Moreover, due to the demands of Champions League qualification the North London club face four away fixtures in their opening six games, all of whom were top-half teams last season, and will be playing their sixth match when the other Big Four teams play their seventh game. Arsenal look worth selling at 73 points with Sporting Index and IG Index for trading buffs.

For Arsenal fans it is worth noting that the highest total of points gained in the opening six games by teams facing the difficult OCFP of 55 or lower in four previous examples is 11, a total that failed to stop Manchester United winning the title last season.

Those looking for early trading positions are advised to back, or buy, Chelsea; particularly as one of Chelsea’s two toughest opening games (at home to Tottenham) is their sixth match, providing an opportunity to trade out. That said Manchester United and Liverpool do not have particularly difficult OCFD’s to cope with, and Chelsea themselves secured 15 points from a OCFD of 63 three seasons ago, so the prospective trading profits may be fairly slim.

However, as our study indicates, these opening fixtures will give an excellent indication of a team’s likely impact on the title race and can therefore reward those who keep their ammunition dry until some solid form evidence is provided.

Recommendation: Sell Arsenal at 73 points with Sporting Index/IG Index, with a view to closing out after six games.


Recommendation:  Buy Chelsea at 82.5 points Sporting Index/IG Index, with a view to closing out after five or six games. Alternatively, back Chelsea at 3.25 on Betfair, again with trading in mind.