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Form factors

League 2 has a reasonable home bias, with home sides winning 46% and losing 28% of their games in the past 10 seasons (5560 matches).

Form provides a useful indicator of the likely match result when looking over a sufficient period. In terms of timeline the best form guide for home teams is their last five home matches followed by their last five matches overall (home and away) and then their last three home games. For away teams their last five matches overall is best, followed by their last five away games and their last three overall.

There is a good linear relationship between different teams’ form with results improving consistently as one team’s form improves and the opposition’s worsens.

Key points and what to look for:

• Form has a moderate lifespan with five game home form the best for home teams and five game overall the best for away sides.
• For shorter three-game form the home form is best for home teams while overall form is best for away teams.
• Home teams with 10 or more points from their last five home matches against away teams with fewer than six points from their last five overall matches have W51-D28-L21% in 620 matches.
• Home teams with six or fewer points from their last five home matches against away teams with nine or more points from their last five overall games have W35-D26-L38% in 491 matches.

Goals

Matches in League 2 average 2.50 goals per game (1.43 for the home side and 1.07 for the away) and 46% of games have contained three or more goals.

The correlation between the home and away team’s recent goals form (last 10 matches) and the chance of an over-goals match (+2.5 goals) is not that strong. However, it is apparent that the home team’s recent overall goals form is dominant regardless of what the away side has done.

If the home team has had fewer than four +2.5 goal games in their last 10 overall matches then there have been under-goals in 58% of the following games (1311 matches). Restricting the sample further to fewer than three over-goals matches in the last 10 gives under-goals in 62% of 542 matches.

If the home team has had +2.5 goals in six or more of their last 10 overall matches then there have been over-goals in 49% of the following games. Restricting the sample to seven or more etc does not lead to an increase in the number of over-goals matches.

Key points and what to look for:

• The home team’s recent overall goals form is dominant.
• For under-goals matches look for home teams that have had at least and ideally seven or more under-goals matches in their last 10 overall.
• For over-goals matches look for home teams that have had at least six over-goals matches in their last 10 overall games.

Clean sheets

The average home clean sheet figure in League 2 is 33% and the away clean sheet figure is 24%. The correlations between the home and away team’s recent clean sheet and scoring records are reasonably strong with the dominant factor for both home and away clean sheets being the home side’s recent trends.

The most important factor for a home clean sheet is the home team’s recent overall record (last 10 games) for keeping clean sheets followed by the home side’s recent record for keeping clean sheets at home. While the number of home clean sheets increases as the away team’s number of recent failures to score increases this is not massively significant.

Home teams that have kept clean sheets in at least five of their last 10 matches have kept clean sheets in 40% of the subsequent 696 matches.

For an away clean sheet the key factor is the home side’s recent overall record of failing to score followed by their recent record of failing to score at home.

Furthermore recent clean sheet and scoring record provide very good correlations for the match outcome with results improving as clean sheet form improves and opponents scoring ability worsens.

Key points and what to look for:

• For home clean sheets the home team’s recent clean sheet record is dominant.
• For away clean sheets the home side’s recent record of failing to score is the most important factor.

HT/FT

The average amount of home W/W’s in League 2 is 27% while away W/Ws occur 15% of the time.

For establishing the chance of a home W/W the most important individual trends are the home and away team’s recent overall record for W/Ws and L/Ls. However when looking at a match up between two teams, the home side’s overall W/W record and the away side’s away L/L record provide the best correlations. In 175 matches where the home team has had four or more W/Ws in their last 10 overall matches and the away team has had four or more L/Ls in their last 10 away games there has been a W/W 41% of the time.

For home L/L results the most important factors are the home side’s recent overall L/L record and the away side’s recent away W/W stats (although the away side’s overall W/W stats are almost as good). In 318 matches where the home side has suffered three or more L/Ls in their last 10 overall matches and the away side has had three or more W/Ws in their last 10 away games their has been a home L/L 21% of the time.

Key points and what to look for:

• For home and away W/Ws there is a good correlation between home and away sides’ recent W/W and L/L records.
• There is no single dominant factor but a combination of a strong W/W record (four or more in the last 10 or three or more if the last 10 away games) and the opponent having a strong L/L record (four or more in the last 10 or three or more if the last 10 home games) gives a consistent trend of W/Ws.

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