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Form Factors
Home teams have maintained an advantage when going into a fixture over the past five seasons (since 2004/05) in the Bundesliga, winning 46% of matches, drawing 26% and losing 28%. Narrowing the sample to matches over the past three seasons shows little change with the average PPG being 1.64 over three seasons and over five seasons (W46%-D25%-L29%).
Form in the Bundesliga is a pretty consistent indicator when it comes to determining a likely future match result. Both the home team’s home and overall form and the away teams away and overall form correlate tidily to suggest what the probable outcome will be in their next match. When looking for the strongest correlation, consider the performance of the home team in their last three home matches. There is also persuasive correlation when looking at how the home team have performed in their last five matches at home. As regards the away team, their form in the last three matches home and away provides the best correlation but their last five matches home and away and their last five away match form also show strong correlation.
Generally speaking the Bundesliga presents very linear form patterns. When one team’s form improves and the other teams’ worsens one can expect a consistent improvement in results. It also must be said that the possibility of a draw being the match outcome remains undeviating even as the respective home and away form fluctuates.
Key points and what to look for:
- Home teams’ last three game home form and last five home game form.
- For the away team their last three match overall form is a strong indicator as are last five home and away form and last five match away form are also to a lesser extent good indicators.
Goals
The Bundesliga is known to be one of the higher scoring leagues of the Big Five in Europe and this is confirmed by their average goals per game over the past five seasons which is 2.84. The home side averages 1.62 goals per game and the away side 1.22. Over this period 54% of Bundesliga matches have witnessed three goals or more. Last season confirmed these figures with 56% of matches seeing +2.5 goals.
In the Bundesliga the correlation between goals for over the last 10 matches and matches which in turn produce +2.5 goals is very weak, with the most dominant determinant being the home teams recent overall record (last 10 games home and away).
Matches where the trends for +2.5 goals are most congruous are when the home team have had three goals or more in seven or more of their last 10 matches. The most likely type of match to yield over 2.5 goals is when said home team plays an away team with a low scoring trend (0-3 goals in the last 10 home and away matches) where 62% of encounters have witnessed +2.5 goals. Generally speaking, the home teams’ goal-scoring form determines whether the match is likely to produce over goals, for instance, when they have been in high-scoring home form (+2.5 in seven or more of their last 10 matches), the away team’s form means very little with most types of match-up proving to yield an over average amount of games with +2.5 goals. This is also true of the home team’s overall form. Moreover, it must be said that when an away team that is in high-scoring away form (+2.5 in seven or more of their last 10 matches) travels to a home team in low-scoring home form (+2.5 in 0-4 of their last 10 matches) then the likelihood of +2.5 goals is 60%.
However, due to the relatively poor correlations most pairings produce a result which is around 54-56% which is round-about the Bundesliga average.
Key points to look for:
- Form plays very little part in indicating the number of goals that will be scored in the proceeding match.
Clean Sheets
An analysis of the home and away teams’ record for clean sheets and ability to score provides some very useful indicators towards the chances of clean sheets, over-goals, and match result. In the Bundesliga the average figure for home clean sheets is 31% and the average for away clean sheets is 20%.
There is a decent correlation between a home teams clean sheet record and their opponent’s record of failing to score. This is most relevant when a team with a strong home clean sheet record (four or more clean sheets in the last 10 games home and away) plays at home. Furthermore, this trend remains strong regardless of the fortunes of their opposition- with 35% of teams in the high home clean sheet band blanking their opponents. There are also strong home clean sheet records in matches where the away team has had a strong failed to score record (four or more clean sheets) in their last 10 matches home and away with no particular preference to their oppositions’ fortunes in their previous 10 matches- returning clean sheets in 36% of such matches.
The correlation for away clean sheets is also strong. When the away team has a strong overall clean sheet record (five or more in the last 10 away games) they continue to be blanked irrespective of the strength of their opponents’ record- seeing 28% away clean sheets.
Key points to look for:
- When looking for home clean sheets, consider home teams that have kept clean sheets in four or more of their last 10 games overall and also in all matches where the away team has struggled to score in four or more of the last 10 matches home or away.
- Away clean sheets occur most often when the away team has a strong overall clean sheet record (five or more in the last 10 away games), they continue to struggle in front of goal regardless of what their oppositions’ record has been like.
Half-time draws and First half clean sheets
Since 2004/05, the Bundesliga has seen a relatively low number of half-time stalemates, with 41% of matches drawn at the interval and only 28% of games ending 0-0 after 45 minutes. The statistics show us that there is a poor relationship between the ability of a side to keep a first-half clean sheet and draw the opening half.
The fact that the Bundesliga is a high-scoring league means that the chances of first-half clean sheets are unsurprisingly less abundant. However, as a more general trend it can be said with some confidence that the better the home team’s first half clean sheet record and the worse the away team’s first half scoring record the better the home teams does, and vice-versa.
Key points and what to look for:
- There is no strong link between the number of half time draws/first half clean sheets in their last 10 games and the likelihood of a half-time draw in their next such game.
HT/FT
On average home teams in the Bundesliga have achieved a W/W result in 28% of their matches since 2004/05 and have suffered the reverse L/L result in 17% of home encounters.
With strong correlations there are many factors which can be used when predicting home W/W’s. The dominant aspect is when the home side’s recent overall (last 10 games home and away) W/W form is strong (four or more W/W’s in their last 10 fixtures) and when the away teams’ away L/L record is strong (five or more L/L in the last 10 games), recording 36% W/W and 39% W/W respectively.
When looking for away W/W’s, correlations are again strong. The strongest being when an away team in good overall form (W/W in four or more of their last 10 games) or when an away team is in strong away form (W/W in four or more of their last 10 games). These records are strong regardless of the away team’s form.
Key points and what to look for:
- For home W/W’s look for a team in good overall form (four or more W/W’s in their last 10 fixtures) and when the away team’s away L/L record is strong (five or more L/L in the last 10 games).
- For away W/W’s look for an away team in good overall form (W/W in four or more of their last 10 games, home and away) or when an away team is in strong away form (W/W in four or more of their last 10 games).
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