After finishing 17th in 2007/08 with a meagre points tally of 36 points, the Cottagers concluded last term in seventh place on 53 points. However, our study shows that Roy Hodgson will have his work cut out to prevent the West London club deteriorating in 2009/10.

We looked at teams who had achieved a similar profile to this Fulham side; since 2000/01 11 teams finished in the top eight having finished 12th or lower (including promoted sides) the previous season. Of those 11 sides, only Bolton Wanderers, in 2004/05, managed a second successive league improvement. Sam Allardyce’s side improved from 17th  and 44 points in 2002/03 to 6th place and 58 points in 2004/05, having leapt to 8th position and 53 points in 2003/04.

All of the other 10 sides to improve from 12th or lower to 8th or higher went backwards the following season, including three, Ipswich, West Ham and Reading, who were relegated. The average position reached by the 11 clubs in our sample in their ‘improved’ season was 6.63, and the average position the following season was 13.36, a considerable deterioration. The average points total during the ‘good season’ was 57.18, a ratio that dropped to 44.72 the next season.

Everton featured twice in our sample, yo-yoing in the seasons between 2001/02 and 2005/06 in the early part of David Moyes’ reign. During that spell, Everton moved from 15th to seventh, to 17th, to fourth, to 11th.

The effects of a European campaign are often sited as a reason for domestic failure, but it should be noted that seven of the 11 teams in this sample failed to qualify for Europe, including the exception to failure, Bolton. Nonetheless, the four teams who did compete in the UEFA Cup, fared worse than the average of teams who remained unencumbered by European football.

The four UEFA Cup combatants averaged 61.75 points in their qualification season, before averaging 45.25 the following term, a ratio deficit of 16.5. The seven teams not weighed down by European football, averaged 54.42 in their ‘improved’ season before dropping 10 points to a ratio of 44.42.

All of which suggests that Fulham, engaged in the Europa League this term, will fall considerably short of last season’s points total. The spread betting firms have factored in an expected shortfall of points for Fulham, but the expected six points loss that the 46-47.5 points total suggests looks to be too conservative, despite the considerable merits of Roy Hodgson’s managerial skills. Sell Fulham.

Recommendation: Sell Fulham Premiership points total at 46, Sporting Index