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Form factors

Looking back at the past seven seasons (2142 matches) of matches in the Süper Lig there is a fairly strong home team bias with the home side having W47%-D24%-L28% of games. Looking at how teams have performed over their last one, three, and five games, both overall (last x games home and away) or home/away respectively (i.e. last five home matches if they are the home team) and what the subsequent result was we have sought to establish the strongest form trends.

The strongest correlations between form and match outcome are seen for short-term form with the strongest for the home side being their last game overall and the strongest for the away side being their last three away matches.

There is a good linear relationship between different teams’ form with results improving consistently as one team’s form improves and the opposition’s worsens.

Key points and what to look for:

• Form has a short lifespan with one-game overall form the best for home teams and three-game away the best for away sides.
• Home teams that have won their last match against away teams with fewer than three points from their last three away matches have W59-D23-L18% with an average supremacy of 0.93 in 242 matches.
• Home teams that have lost their last match against away teams with five or more points from their last three away games have W33-D29-L38% with an average supremacy of -0.10 in 254 matches.

Goals

Matches in the Süper Lig are generally high scoring affairs with an average of 2.72 goals per game (1.55 for the home side and 1.17 for the away) and 51.5% of games have contained three or more goals.

We have compared the home and away teams last 10 matches both overall and home/away respectively to see how the number of over-goals matches they have had affects the chance of over or under-goals in the next game.

There is a reasonable correlation between teams’ recent goals form and the next match with the chance of an over-goals game generally increasing fairly in-line with the teams having had more over-goals in their recent matches.

The most useful factor is the home team’s recent record with their home record being dominant for an over-goals match and their overall record dominant for under-goals.

If the home team has had three or more goals in seven or more of their last 10 home matches then there have been +2.5 goals in 58% of 387 games with this average rising to 60% in the 240 matches that the away team has also had over-goals in at least half their last 10 matches overall.

If the home team has had under-goals in at least six of their last 10 matches overall then there have been -2.5 goals in 53% of 708 games with this increasing to 56% in the 270 games that the away teams has also had under-goals in at least six of their last 10 matches.

Key points and what to look for:

• For under-goals matches look for home teams that have had -2.5 goals in at least six of their last 10 overall matches.
• For over-goals matches look for home teams that have had +2.5 goals in at least seven of their last 10 home matches.
• Ideally look for match-ups where the away side’s recent overall record collaborates with the home side’s trends.

Clean sheets

The average home clean sheet figure in the Süper Lig is 33% and the away clean sheet figure is 22%.
We have compared the home and away teams last 10 matches both overall and home/away respectively to see how the number of clean sheets and failures to score have affected the chance of either a home or away clean sheet in the next game.

The most important determining factors for a home clean sheet are the home team’s recent overall clean sheet record and the away team’s recent overall record of failing to score. Individually these factors result in 37-38% home clean sheets with this rising to 40% when both factors are applied (188 matches).

For away clean sheets the more important factors are the home side’s recent home record for failing to score and the away side’s recent away record for keeping clean sheets. When the away team has kept four or more clean sheets in their last 10 away matches (results in 28% away clean sheets) and the home team has failed to score in three or more of their last 10 home matches (results in 24% away clean sheets) then there have been away clean sheets in 36% of 107 matches.

Key points and what to look for:

• For home clean sheets look for away teams that have failed to score in four or more of their last 10 games overall and home sides that have kept clean sheets in four or more of their last 10 overall matches.
• For away clean sheets look for home teams that have failed to score in at least three of their last 10 home matches and away teams that have kept clean sheets in at four or more of their last 10 away games.

Half-time draws and first half clean sheets

Süper Lig games have half-time draws in 44% of matches with 32% being 0-0 at the interval. There are half-time wins in 34% of games with losses accounting for the other 22% of games.

The link between first half clean sheets and half-time draws is not that strong although there is some evidence to suggest that the number of half-time draws (and goalless opening periods) increases as the home side’s recent overall record of scoring in first halves worsens and the away side’s recent away record of scoring improves. Where the home side has failed to score in seven or more of their last 10 games and the away side has scored in at least half their last 10 away matches there has been half-time draws in 51% of 185 games (37% were 0-0 at half-time).

Overall there are much better correlations for half-time wins and losses with the number of wins increasing as the home side’s first half clean sheet and scoring records improve, and the away side’s first half clean sheet and scoring records worsen.

The strongest results for half-time wins are when the home side has scored in the first half in at least seven of their last 10 home matches and the away side has failed to score in at least seven of their last 10 away first halves. This has resulted in half-time wins in 47% of 133 matches.

The strongest results for half-time losses are when the home team has kept fewer than five first half clean sheets in their last 10 overall games and the away team has kept first half clean sheets in at least six of their last 10 away matches. This has resulted in half-time defeats in 32% of 187 games.

Key points and what to look for:

• For half-time draws and goalless first halves look for home teams with a strong recent record for failing to score in the first half and away teams with a strong recent record for scoring in the first half.
• For half-time wins look for home teams that have a strong first-half scoring record and away teams that have strong recent record for failing to score.
• For half-time defeats look for home teams that have a weak first half clean sheet record and away teams that have a strong record for keeping first half clean sheets.

HT/FT

The average amount of home W/W’s in the Süper Lig is 27.5% while away W/Ws occur 15% of the time.
When looking for home W/Ws or home L/L’s it is the home or away side’s recent W/W record that is dominant over the L/L trend. In particular the home or away side’s recent overall record is more important than their home/away records respectively.

Where the home side has had three or more W/Ws in their last 10 overall games there have been W/Ws in 34% of 721 games. More selectively this increases to 40.5% from 158 matches where the home side has had five or more W/Ws in their last 10 overall games.

Where the away side has had three or more W/Ws in their last 10 overall games they have W/W away in 21.5% of 735 matches rising to 26% from 167 games when they have had five or more W/Ws.

Key points and what to look for:

• Recent overall W/W records are dominant over opposition L/L trends
• For W/Ws look for teams that have had at least three W/Ws in their last 10 overall matches.

 

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