Form factors

The Greek Super League (GSL) has a relatively strong home bias, with home teams winning 49% and losing 26% of their games since the start of the 2002/03 season (1680 matches). However, last season’s average home PPG of 1.55 was down on the leagues average (1.71) over the last seven season.

The performance of the Home team in their last match is the key indicator for their next game in Greece. However, for the away team the form in their last three games be it overall (home and away) or just away provide good correlations for the next match outcome although their three-game away stats are the strongest.

When a good home team has strong form (won their last game) visits of away sides with form of 0-4 points in their last three away games sees the home team win 62% of matches. However, if a strong away side (5-9 points in their last three away games) comes to town then they win just 40%, losing 34%.

The only times the away team holds the advantage in Greece is when they have picked up 5-9 points in their last three away games and travel to a side who has lost their last match. In such matches over the last six seasons, the away side has won 46% of the time, but still lost in 31%.

Key points and what to look for:

• Home teams’ last game form and away teams’ three game away form.
• Home teams who have won their last match dominate away teams with a low and average away three game form (0-4 points) but struggle against sides who are strong on the road in the last three games (5-9 points)
• Away teams who have gained 5-9 points in their last three away games are dominant over home teams who have lost their last match since 2002/03

Goals

The GSL is a low scoring league, averaging just 2.38 goals per game (1.42 for the home side and 0.96 for the away)  – with 58% of the games featuring two goals or fewer since the start of the 2002/03 season, including a third of matches featuring no more than a solitary goal.

The correlation between goals for over the last 10 games and matches with +2.5 goals is strong, especially comparing the home sides’ last 10 home form with the away teams’ last 10 overall goals record.

Interestingly, the highest percentage of matches with three goals or more occurs when the home side has seen 6-10 of their last 10 home games feature +2.5 goals and the away team has a poor record of over goal games (0-3 goals in the last 10) and sees 57% over goals.

As one may expect, especially with such strong correlations, when two sides with low scoring trends meet (0-3 +2.5 goals in the last 10 all matches) there is a strong case for a low scoring match, with 69% of these games ending with -2.5 goals.

Key points and what to look for:

• Look for Home teams’ last 10 home matches and away teams’ last 10 overall (home and away).
• For games with +2.5 goals look for home teams with six or more over-goals matches in their last 10.
• For games with -2.5 goals look for home and away teams with 0-3 over-goals matches in their last 10, either overall or home/away with respect to venue.

Clean Sheets

An analysis of the home and away teams’ record for clean sheets and ability to score provides some very useful indicators towards the chances of clean sheets, over-goals, and match result. With the Super League generally producing low scoring matches, it is not a surprise to see the average home clean sheet figure is 41%, with the figure for away clean sheets at 26%.

There is a very strong correlation between a home teams clean sheet record and their opponent’s record of failing to score. This is most relevant when a team with a strong clean sheet record (at least six clean sheets in their last 10 home games) plays at home and moreover, is strong regardless of their opposition – with 48% of teams in the high home clean sheet band blanking their opponents.

With the away team clean sheet correlations almost as strong, away sides with good records of not conceding (at least five clean sheets in their last 10 away games) continue to have good clean sheet records irrespective of the strength of their opponents’ record, 34% away clean sheets.

Key points and what to look for:

• For home clean sheets look for home teams with six or more clean sheets in their last home 10 matches – CS in 48% of home matches. However teams with high all team form and opponents with poor scoring records only slightly fall below this both at 47% clean sheets.
• For away clean sheets look for away teams with five or more clean sheets in their last 10 away matches – away CS in 34%. Also look for home teams that have failed to score in five or more of their last 10 matches (home and away) – away CS in 30%.

Half-time draws and first half clean sheets

Since 2002/03, half-time draws have been very regular in the GSL - 48% of matches level at the break. With such a high number of first half stalemates and the GSL’s nature for being a low scoring league it is not surprising that 38% of the opening 45 minutes end goalless.

While there is very little correlation between a home side’s last 10 first-half clean sheet record and a half time draw, it is a lot more pertinent to look at the first half clean sheet record of the away side in their last 10 games. An away team who has a strong record of away clean sheets will see 57% of their next matches level at the break and even if this record is strong overall (home and away) over the last 10 games 52% of their next away opening halves end level.

Key points and what to look for:

• For half-time draws and goalless first halves look for away teams with eight or more first half clean sheets in their last 10 away matches (HT draw = 57% and 0-0 = 44%) and last 10 matches overall (HT draw = 52% and 0-0 = 39%).

HT/FT

With home teams being dominant it is not surprising to find that the home side wins 27% of matches by way of the W/W double result and suffers L/L reverses in just 13% of games.

The dominant factor for predicting home W/Ws has been the home side’s recent overall (last 10 games home and away) W/W form, with 42% of the next matches being W/W if a side has recorded 4-10 W/W’s in their last 10 matches. The next most pertinent correlation being the home side’s last 10 home form, with 38% of the next matches being W/W if a side has recorded 4-10 W/W’s in their last 10 home matches.

When looking for away W/W there are a few indicators that become relevant. The most important of these are the home team’s L/L record in their last 10 home matches and their overall (home and away) last 10 L/L record.

Key points to look for:

• For home W/Ws look for matches where the home team has W/W in four or more of their last 10 matches (home W/W in 42% of matches) or the home team has had four or more W/W results in their last 10 games overall (home W/W in 38% of games). When both criteria have been met the home team has recorded W/W in 45% of matches.