Form factors

Serie A has a relatively strong home bias, with home teams winning 46% and losing 24% of their games since the start of the 2004/05 season (1900 matches). However, last season’s average home PPG of 1.77 was considerable higher than the league’s average (1.68) over the last five seasons, and saw 51% of matches won by the home side (24% lost).

The performance of the Home team over their last three home matches is the key indicator for their next game in the top tier of Italian football. Similarly, for the away team the form in their last five away games provides the strongest correlations for the next match outcome.

When a good home team has strong form (6-9 points in their last three home games) and hosts away sides with form of 0-3 points in their last five away games, then the home team win 65% of matches. However, if a strong away side (7-15 points in their last five away games) comes to town then they win just 39%, losing 31%.

Away sides with superior form hold the advantage in Serie A when they have picked up 7-15 points in their last five away games and travel to a side who have recorded both 0-3 and 4-5 points in their last three home games. In such matches over the last 10 seasons, the away side has won 42%/38% of the time and only lost in 29%/33% respectively.

Key points and what to look for:

• Home team’s last three game home form and away team’s five game away form.
• Home teams who have taken 6-9 points from their last three home matches dominate away teams with a low and average away five game form (0-3 points).
• Away teams who have gained 7-15 points in their last five away games are dominant over home teams who have taken 0-5 points from their last three home matches.

Goals

Serie A matches average 2.57 goals per game (1.49 for the home side and 1.08 for the away team) with a little under half the games (47%) featuring three goals or more since 2004/2005.

The correlation between goals for over the last 10 games and matches with +2.5 goals is extremely weak; however, the most dominant factor is the away team’s recent overall record (last 10 games home and away).

The poor correlations in the goals category have thrown up some bizarre results. Matches with three goals or more are most common when the home team have had +2.5 goals in three or less of their last 10 home matches the away team has a poor record of over goal games (0-3 goals in the last 10) producing 52% over goals games.

On the other side of the coin, when both the home and away teams have high overall (home and away) +2.5 goal form the next match only averages 39% of over goal games.

However, due to the poor correlations the majority of form related pairing produces an outcome of around 45-49% which is bang on the league average.

Key points to look for:

• Form plays very little part in indicating the number of goals that will be scored in the proceeding match.

Clean Sheets

An analysis of the home and away teams’ record for clean sheets and ability to score provides some very useful indicators towards the chances of clean sheets, over-goals, and match result. With only a marginal difference in Serie A’s scoring rates, it is not a surprise to see the average home clean sheet figure is 35%, with the figure for away clean sheets at 21%.

There is a very strong correlation between a home team’s clean sheet record and their opponent’s record of failing to score. This is most relevant when a team with a strong clean sheet record (at least five clean sheets in their last 10 games) plays at home and moreover, is strong regardless of their opposition – with 43% of teams in the high home clean sheet band blanking their opponents.

With the away team clean sheet correlations almost as strong, away sides who have a good clean sheet record (at least four clean sheets in their last 10 away games) continue to keep clean sheets irrespective of the strength of their opponents’ record in 31% their next away games.

Key points and what to look for:

• For home clean sheets look for home teams with five or more clean sheets in their last 10 matches – CS in 43% of home matches.
• For away clean sheets look for away teams with four or more clean sheets in their last 10 away matches – away CS in 31%.

Half-time draws and first half clean sheets

Since 2004/2005, Serie A has seen a relatively average number of half-time stalemates, with 44% of matches drawn at the interval and 33% of games ending 0-0 after 45 minutes. The statistics show us that there is a poor relationship between the ability of a side to keep a first-half clean sheet and draw the opening half. This is apart from first half clean sheets when the home teams have a good record (at least failing to score in seven or more of their last 10 away games) and go onto draw 51% of first halves.

However, as a more general trend it can be said with some confidence that the better the home team’s first half clean sheet record and the worse the away team’s first half scoring record the better the home teams does, and vice-versa. The best indicator for both the home and away sides is their recent overall first-half clean sheet record in the last 10 matches (home and away).

Key points and what to look for:

• There is no link between the number of half time draws/first half clean sheets in their last 10 games and the likelihood of a half-time draw in their next such game.

HT/FT

With the home teams being dominant in Serie A it is not surprising to find that on average they win 28% of their matches by the W/W double result while they suffer L/L reverses in only 13% of matches, interestingly both the D/W and D/D are more common occurring in 17% of matches each.

With strong correlations there are many factors which can be used when predicting home W/W’s. However, the dominant factor for predicting home W/Ws has been the home side’s recent overall (last 10 games home and away) W/W form, with 43% of the next matches being W/W if a side has recorded 4-10 W/Ws in their last 10 matches. The next most pertinent correlation being the home side’s last 10 home form, with 42% of the next matches being W/W if a side has recorded 5-10 W/Ws in their last 10 home matches.

When looking for away W/Ws, correlations are again strong. The most important of these are the away team’s W/W record in their last 10 away matches, which produces 26% away W/W’s with four or more W/W’s in their last 10 away matches and the away sides W/W record in their last 10 games – 23% away W/W’s with four or more W/W’s in their last 10 matches.

Key points to look for:

• For home W/Ws look for matches where the home team has W/W in four or more of their last 10 matches (home W/W in 43% of matches) or the home team has had five or more W/W results in their last 10 home games (home W/W in 42% of games). When both criteria have been met the home team has recorded W/W in 45% of matches.
• For away W/Ws look for matches where the away team has W/W in four or more of their last 10 away matches (away W/W in 26% of matches) or the away team has had four or more W/W results in their last 10 games (away W/W in 23% of games). When both criteria have been met the away team has recorded W/W in 26% of matches.