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Form factors

Looking back at the past nine seasons (2052 matches) of matches in the SPL the home side has W45%-D23%-L32% of games. Looking at how teams have performed over their last one, three, and five games, both overall (last x games home and away) or home/away respectively (i.e. last five home matches if they are the home team) and what the subsequent result was we have sought to establish the strongest form trends.

Form provides a good correlation for match outcome with the strongest correlation for the home team found when looking at the home side’s five-game home form. The strongest correlation for the away side has been their last match overall.

When a home side has had strong form (10 or more points from their last five home matches) and the away side has lost their previous match the home team has W64%-D18%-L19% (from 250 games) with an average supremacy of 1.12. In the 113 games of this sample where the home team is one of the Big Two then they have won 85% of games (odds 1.18) with an average supremacy of 2.11.

Key points and what to look for:

• Form provides a good guide for match outcome.
• Weak home form is fewer than seven points from their last five home matches with strong form being 10 or more points.

Goals

Matches in the SPL average of 2.67 goals per game (1.50 for the home side and 1.17 for the away) and 50% of games have contained three or more goals.

We have compared the home and away teams last 10 matches both overall and home/away respectively to see how the number of over-goals matches they have had affects the chance of over or under-goals in the next game.

The correlations between teams’ recent goals form and the next match are not that strong although the strongest trend is that the home team’s recent overall record largely dominates the chance of over or under-goals.

If the home team has had three or more goals in seven or more of their last 10 overall matches then there have been +2.5 goals in 54% of 369 games with this rising to 63% in the 81 matches that the away team has also had over-goals in at least seven of their last 10 away matches.

If both the home and away teams have had under-goals in at least six of their last 10 matches overall there have been -2.5 goals in 55% of 291 games.
Key points and what to look for:

• The home team’s overall record is the dominant factor. A collaborative away team record either away or overall also increases the chance of an over or under goals game.
• For over-goals matches look for home teams that have had +2.5 goals in at least seven of their last 10 overall matches.
• For under-goals look for home teams that have had -2.5 in at least six of their last 10 overall games.

Clean sheets

The average home clean sheet figure in the SPL is 32% and the away clean sheet figure is 24%.
We have compared the home and away teams last 10 matches both overall and home/away respectively to see how the number of clean sheets and failures to score have affected the chance of either a home or away clean sheet in the next game.

The most important determining factors for a home clean sheet are the home team’s recent overall clean sheet record both at home and overall. When the home side has kept clean sheets in at least four of their last 10 matches overall they have kept clean sheets in 41% of 655 games.

For away clean sheets the more important factors are the away side’s recent away record for keeping clean sheets as well as the home side’s recent overall record for failing to score. When the away team has kept four or more clean sheets in their last 10 away matches there has been 28% away clean sheets and when the home team has failed to score in five or more of their last 10 overall matches there has been 29% away clean sheets.

Key points and what to look for:

• For home clean sheets look for home sides that have kept clean sheets in four or more of their last 10 overall matches.
• For away clean sheets look for away teams that have a strong away clean sheet record and home teams that have a strong trend for failing to score overall.

Half-time draws and first half clean sheets

SPL games have half-time draws in 40% of matches with 30% being 0-0 at the interval. There are half-time wins in 36% of games with losses accounting for the other 24% of games.

The link between first half clean sheets and half-time draws is not that strong although there is some evidence to suggest that the number of half-time draws (and goalless opening periods) increases as the home side’s recent home record of scoring in first halves worsens. Where the home side has failed to score in seven or more of their last 10 home games there have been half-time draws in 44% of 443 games (36% were 0-0 at half-time).

Overall there are much better correlations for half-time wins and losses with the number of wins increasing as the home side’s first half clean sheet and scoring records improve, and the away side’s first half clean sheet and scoring records worsen.

The strongest results for half-time wins are when the home side has scored in the first half in at least seven of their last 10 overall matches and the away side has failed to score in at least six of their last 10 overall first halves. This has resulted in half-time wins in 54% of 261 matches.

The strongest results for half-time losses are when the home team has failed to score in at least seven of their last 10 overall first halves and the away team has scored in at least half of their last 10 away first halves. This has resulted in half-time defeats in 35% of 209 games.

Key points and what to look for:

• Half-time outcomes are closely linked to teams ability to score in the first half.
• For half-time wins look for home teams that have a strong first-half clean sheet and scoring record.
• For half-time defeats look for home teams that have a poor first half scoring record and away teams that have a good record for scoring in the first half.

HT/FT

The average amount of home W/W’s in the SPL is 29% while away W/Ws occur 18% of the time.

When looking for home W/Ws or home L/L’s it is the home or away side’s recent W/W record that is dominant over an opponents L/L trend.

Where the home side has had four or more W/Ws in their last 10 overall games there have been W/Ws in 49% of 416 games.

Where the away side has had four or more W/Ws in their last 10 away games they have W/W away in 31% of 208 matches.

Key points and what to look for:

• Recent overall W/W records are dominant over opposition L/L trends
• For W/Ws look for teams that have had at least four W/Ws in their last 10 matches either overall or home/away.