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Form factors

 Home teams in the Premier League have won 47% and lost just 27% of their games over the past five seasons (1900 games). These figures have remained consistent over the last two seasons (W46%-D26%-L28%).

Form is an extremely strong indicator of the most likely match result in the Premier League — the home side’s home and overall form and the away side’s away and overall form all correlate well. Longer-term form is the best sign of the next match result. For the home team their five-game overall form and five-game home form provide the best correlations. In addition the away team’s last five-game overall form produce the strongest results.

A strong home side — one with at least 10 points from their previous five home matches — wins 53% of their next home matches regardless of opposition. The most potent advantage occurs when they face a weak away side — one with fewer than five points from their last five home or away games — when they win 65% of their next home matches and, moreover, have a goals supremacy of 1.16.

In general there exists a clear link between the form of the two sides in question. The home team’s prospects increase as their form increases and similarly the away team’s fortunes are affected likewise.

Key points and what to look for:

• Longer term form factors. For home teams examine their last five-game form and last five-game home form. For away teams inspect their last five-game overall form. Strong form is represented by accruing at least 10 points in your last five matches whilst a weak team will have managed fewer than five points.

Goals

 Over the past five seasons, Premier League matches have contained an average of 2.52 goals (1.47 for the home side and 1.05 for the away side). 46% (874/1900) have featured at least three scores. In the same period 29% of the games have settled the -1.5 goals market.

When assessing the likelihood of an over goals game it is best to look at last 10-game overall form for both sides rather than their respective home or away form. When a high over goals side — a team with six or more +2.5 goals games in their last 10 league matches — hosts a similar side, there is a 57% chance of the game featuring three goals or more. Interestingly no combination of low, medium or high and home, away or all teams produce results where the chance of a +2.5 goals exceeds 60% (1.67).

The lowest scoring matches tend to involve away teams who have had fewer than four +2.5 goals in their last 10 away matches. In this instance the home team is largely irrelevant unless they are a strong over goals team. If an away team with fewer than four +2.5 goals in their last 10 away matches visits either a team with fewer than six +2.5 goals in their last 10 matches or a team with 4-5 +2.5 goals in their last 10 home matches there is a 61% (1.64) chance of an under goals match.

Key points and what to look for:

• It is best to the last 10-game home, away and overall form when assessing the chance of an over goals match.
• If looking for an over goals match look for teams with six or more +2.5 goals in their last 10 all matches facing similar sides, although it would be unwise to take odds of shorter than 1.67 in any situation.
• If looking for an under goals match look for away teams who have had fewer than four +2.5 goals in their last 10 away matches.

Clean Sheets

 Home teams have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their home matches since the start of the 2004 season. In this period they have failed to score in these matches 25% of the time. These stats have remained consistent over the last two seasons.

A team who have kept at least five clean sheets in either their last 10 all games or their last 10 home games can be expected to keep a clean sheet in their next home match 46% of the time.

There is less correlation when looking at the chance of an away clean sheet. Regardless of how many clean sheets an away team has kept in their last 10 away or all matches and their opponents similar statistics there is never more than a 40% chance of their home team failing to score.

Clean sheet form is also a good indication of likely match result. Teams with a strong home clean sheet record — five or more clean sheets in their last 10 home matches — regardless of the strength of their oppositions’ clean sheet form.

Key points and what to look for:

• Both the home teams clean sheet record and the away teams fail to score record affect the chances of a clean sheet.
• Teams with a strong home clean sheet win 61% of their next home matches.

Half-time draws and first half clean sheets

 831 of the 1900 (44%) Premier League matches since the start of the 2004/05 season have been level at half-time. This number has decreased slightly in the last two season, but any odds offered above 2.32 (43%) are generally good value.

As half-time draws are reasonably commonplace in the Premier League, the bands used replicate this. There is, however, relatively little correlation between a team’s half-time draw record and their likelihood of drawing the opening 45 minutes of their next home match. Away teams who have had at least eight half-time draws in their last 10 home and away matches experience a half-time stalemate in their next match 47% of the time.

It should be noted, however that no combination of teams produce results where there is below a 40% chance of above a 50% of a half-time draw.

Key points and what to look for:

• Regardless of the teams involved there will be approximately a 45% chance of a half-time draw.

HT/FT

 Over the past five seasons 28% (2.75) of Premier League matches have been W/Ws, whilst 15% (6.86) have been L/Ls. Due to these low figures it is not uncommon for a team to have registered no W/Ws in their last 10 games.

In a similar fashion to the form factor trend, both the home team’s W/W record and the away team’s L/L record both correlate strongly with the chance of a W/W.

The best factor for predicting a W/W is the home team’s recent overall (last 10 games home and away) W/W form. For the away team look for their last 10-game away L/L form.

For away W/Ws, look for an away team’s away W/W form and the home team’s home L/L form

Key points and what to look for:

• L/Ls are rare in the Premier League with just 15% of the matches finishing in this fashion.
• For home W/Ws look for home teams with at least three W/Ws in their last 10 home and away games.
• For away L/Ls look for away teams with at least the W/Ws in their last 10 away games.