Form Factors

Home advantage is evident in the Portuguese Super Liga with the hosts going W45%-D28%-L27% in a 1332-game sample over the last five seasons. Interestingly the draw result is more common than the home loss. These figures have remained largely consistent over the last two seasons.

Form is a good indicator of future performance in Portugal. The home side’s home and overall form and the away side’s away and overall form all correlate well with a team’s likely next result. In terms of the best correlations, one should look for three-game home form for the hosting team and three-game away form for the visitors.

Contrastingly to some other leagues across Europe, no combination of form produces results where a home team can be expected to have a goals supremacy of more than 0.71 over their opponents. This extreme occurs, as one would expect, when a strong home team — a side with at least six points from their previous three home matches — plays host to a weak away side — a team with fewer than four points from their last three away matches. Despite the difference in quality of the teams in question, the home side win just 54% (1.85 odds) of these matches.

Key points and what to look for:

Form is a good indicator of likely next result, but there are clear limits to the chance of success for any team regardless of their opposition. Three-game home or away form is the strongest factor when assessing future performance.

Goals

The Portuguese Super Liga is a relatively low scoring league whereby just 40% (2.5) of the games have settled the +2.5 goals market over the last five years. There has been an average of 2.29 goals scored in these matches.

There is little correlation between a team’s over goals form and the likelihood of an over goals match in their next league game, although the away team’s over goals form has more effect than the home team’s. An away team who have experienced at least six +2.5 goals games in their last 10 away matches have a +2.5 goals game in their next match 48% (2.08) of the time independent of their opposition.

Key points and what to look for:

In the Portuguese Super Liga a high over goals team is one who have seen at least six +2.5 goals games in their last 10 home, away or all games.

The chance of an over goals game is influenced more by the away team than the home team.

Clean Sheets

As a consequence of the low-scoring nature of the Portuguese Super Liga, clean sheets are quite common-place. The home team has stopped their opponents netting in 40% (2.5) of the 480 league matches over the last two seasons.

There is a clear correlation between a team’s clean sheet record and their match outcome form. Teams who have kept at least five clean sheets in their last 10 league matches win their next home match 56% (1.79) of the time.

Key points and what to look for:

Look for the number of clean sheets a team has kept in their last 10 fixtures.

Teams who have kept at least five clean sheets in their last 10 league matches win their next home match 56% (1.79) of the time.

Half-time draws and first half clean sheets

603 of the 1332 (45%, 2.22) Super Liga matches since 2004/05 have been level at half-time. Interestingly, bettors looking for value may prefer to back the 0-0 half-time correct score as 36% (2.75) of Portuguese league matches are goalless at the interval.

The lowest chance of a half-time draw occurs when a team with at least eight half-time draws in their last 10 games play their next away game (41%, 2.44). This shows us that there is little correlation between a teams half-time draw form and the likelihood of a half-time draw in their next match, but also that even in this extreme example half-time draws are likely.

 Key points and what to look for:

Regardless of the teams involved there exists at least a 41% chance of a half-time draw in any Super Liga match.

HT/FT

26% (350/1332, 3.81) of the games in the Super Liga over the last five seasons have ended as W/Ws, whereas L/Ls occur 15% (6.47). Interestingly the second most popular double result is the D/D which happens 18% (5.53) of the time.

A strong W/W team is one who have recorded at least four W/Ws in their last 10 league matches. These teams can be expected to progress in a similar fashion and record a W/W in their next game 36% of the time.

Key points and what to look for:

W/Ws are quite rare in Portugal largely due to the high number of half-time draws that occur in the division. Bettors should be discouraged from looking for value in the W/W market when a short priced favourite is playing.
 

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