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US Open Womens SF Preview

Bettorlogic preview both women's semi-finals as Caroline Wozniacki looks to reach her second consecutive US Open final.

Caroline Wozniacki

 

Caroline Wozniacki (1.33) v Vera Zvonareva (3.82)

The winds should still be strong on Friday, although they will begin to calm down in the evening. However, both players dealt with conditions well in their semis, as they produced very solid defensive performances.

The Dane won comfortably when they met in the recent Montreal final and was also the winner when they played at the season-ending championships in Doha last year. However, Zvonareva won in Indian Wells earlier last year and again this year in Charleston when Wozniacki retired.

Wozniacki is enjoying a 14 match winning streak and is yet to drop a set this fortnight. While she’s lost four of seven completed matches this year against current top 10 players the Dane has won three of four semi-finals since 2008 against the current top 10. Furthermore, her semi-final record is superb with 17 wins in her last 18 completed matches.

Zvonareva has won nine of her last 10 matches with her only defeat coming against Wozniacki and this is her second consecutive Grand Slam semi-final after reaching the final at Wimbledon. The Russian also has a good record in semi-finals over the past few years as she’s won 14 of 18 such completed matches since 2008, including winning her last five against players now in the top 25. Furthermore, Zvonareva has won half her 16 matches against current top 10 players since 2009, and since 2008 seven of her 10 matches when 3.0-6.0 to win have gone to a third set and all her four wins in these matches have been 2-1.

Top-four seeds have won the first set in 20, and the match in 18, of 26 matches against 5-8 seeds here since 1997. However, they’ve lost seven of 11 that have gone to a third set. Limiting the sample just to semis and the higher seed has won six of seven matches, with three going to a third set.

In semi-finals here since 1997 where one player is seeded 1-10 places higher, the higher ranked woman has prevailed in just 12 of 20 matches with only six 2-0 wins and 12 matches going to a third set.

Recommendation: Split stakes – Wozniacki to win 2-1 at 4.3, Sporting Bet
                                                             Zvonareva to win 2-1 at 8.0, Betfair


Kim Clijsters (1.53) v Venus Williams (2.8)

Both players have won two US Open titles and six of their 12 meetings with each other. However, Clijsters has won their past four matches, including both since her comeback, and while Williams has not reached the final here since 2002 the Belgian has won on her last two trips here and reached the final the time before.

Clijsters was below her best in a poor quarter-final as she beat Stosur 2-1 but she’s won all three of her semi-finals here, with two wins in straight sets. Moreover, she’s won seven of her last nine matches against current top 10 players, and has taken the first set in all 10 such matches she’s played since her comeback.

Williams’ knee has not appeared to inhibit the American’s movement so far but if it is a weakness Clijsters will surely exploit it. Venus has appeared in just one semi-final away from Wimbledon in the past seven years and she lost that in straight sets to Henin here in 2007. However, since 2009 she’s appeared in four major semi-finals and lost the lot in straight sets. She also has an average record against the current top 10 of winning just half her last 14 such matches including the first set in only six and winning only four of 10 on hard courts.

The higher seed has won 14 of 22 all-seeded semi-finals here since 1997 although 13 have gone to a third set.

Recommendation: Clijsters to win the first set at 1.67, William Hill
Already advised: 0.5pt Double with Clijsters and Youzhny both to win at 2.65, Boyles

 
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