Tennis / Preview / Us Open Wednesday Preview

US Open Wednesday Preview

It's quarter-finals action in Flushing Meadows and the Maestro is back on court against Robin Soderling as we preview all four matches.

Federer aus open SF win

 

Novak Djokovic (1.33) v Gael Monfils (4)

Djokovic has won all four of their previous matches although they’ve all been close, with the Serb winning their most recent match in the final of last year’s Paris Masters 7/6 in the final set. There three matches before that finished 3-2, 2-1 and 3-0 to Djokovic, with the straight sets victory coming at the French open and featuring two tie-breaks.

Djokovic has been increasingly impressive in this tournament after looking on his way out in the first round. Since 2008 he’s won six of seven Slam matches when 1.2-1.4 to win, with four 3-0 successes. However, he’s won just two of his last six Slam quarter-finals, and his only win in straight sets was against the unlikely opponent of Yen-Hsun Lu at Wimbledon. Further back nine of his last 11 Slam quarters have featured at least one tie-break.

Going back to the 2008 US Open Djokovic has won six of eight hard-court Slam matches against players currently ranked 6-25 but has had just two 3-0 wins compared to four 3-1s and five of the seven have had at least 39 games (also, the one he retired in would almost certainly have had 39 or more games).

Monfils also survived a first round five-setter and has improved as the tournament has progressed. This is his third Slam quarter-final having won one and lost one previously, and this is the third year in a row he’s made the fourth round or better here. Last year he took a set off Nadal in the fourth round here and he’s twice beaten current top 10 players in Slams (W2-L6). Furthermore, he’s taken a set in five of his eight matches on hard courts against current top 10 players since 2009 despite losing the last seven.

Recommendation: Split stake - Djokovic to win 3-1 at 3.75 Victor Chandler
                                                          Over 37.5 games at 2.0, Boyles   


Roger Federer (1.29) v Robin Soderling (4.5)

Federer may have won 12 of his 14 meetings with Soderling but he’s lost the last two, including most recently at this year’s French Open. However, the Swiss has won the first set in their last 11 matches, including a 6/0 opener here a year ago. A sign of how close their more recent matches have become is that six of the last eight have had at least one tie-break, including six in their last 14 sets.

The most prolific Slam winner in history has rediscovered his form since Wimbledon as he enjoyed his best Masters run in Cincy and Canada since 2007. With Soderling having beaten him at Roland Garros Federer will be looking for some revenge and since Wimbledon 2003 only Nadal has beaten him more than once in Slams. Federer has won 10 of 13 hard-court Slam matches against current top 10 players since 2008 with six 3-0s and three 3-1s. Furthermore, he’s won all 13 hard-court Slam quarter-finals he’s played, with five 3-1 wins.

Soderling failed to mount a challenge at the hard-court Masters after Wimbledon and survived a five-set match in the first round. Since 2009 Soderling has lost 19 of 32 matches against current top 10 players, including six of the last eight, but he’s taken at least a set in 15 of the last 18 such matches. Furthermore, three of the Swede’s previous four Slam quarter-finals have lasted four sets, including both the ones he lost.

There have been 12 US Open quarter-finals since 1990 between a top-four seed and a 5-8 seed with the higher ranked player winning nine times including five 3-1s, with eight of the matches featuring a tie-break. In all rounds when two top-eight seeds have met the higher one has won 31 of 44 matches with 13 3-1s and 15 3-0s, while six of their 13 defeats have been 3-1.

Federer should continue his progress towards a seventh consecutive US Open final and while Soderling looks capable of taking a set it’s still worth having a Fed straight-sets win on-side.

Recommendation: 0.6pt Federer to win 3-1 at 3.6, Sporting Bet
                                   0.4pt Federer to win 3-0 at 2.56, Betfair


Caroline Wozniacki (1.11) v Dominika Cibulkova (9)

Cibulkova won the first time these two met back in 2007. However, since then the Dane has won four in a row without dropping a set including a 6/4, 6/1 win two weeks ago in New Haven.

The top seed has won 13 straight matches and 19 of her last 20. Furthermore, she’s yet to drop a set this week and was highly impressive as she despatched Sharapova in the last round. Last year’s beaten finalist has also won her last 14 matches on hard courts against players currently ranked 26-50, with nine 2-0 wins in the last 12 and nine of the 14 won by six or more games. Moreover, she’s won 40 of her last 41 matches when shorter than 1.2 to win with her only defeat coming when she was suffering with an ankle injury on clay earlier this year. 33 of those wins were 2-0 with 25 by seven or more games.

Cibulkova took advantage of Kuznetsova’s service meltdown in the previous round and is playing well. However, she’s lost her last 13 matches against the current top 10 in which she’s won just two sets, and has been beaten by seven-clear games in five of the last 11 matches including twice by Wozniacki. Furthermore, she’s lost the first set 6/0 three times in her last six matches against players currently in the top 25.

Top nine seeds have faced non-seeds in six US Open quarter-finals since 1997 with all six winning by seven or more games, and five of the first sets and five of the second have had fewer than nine games.

More generally, top-four seeds have won all 18 US Open matches in the fourth round or beyond against unseeded players excluding wild cards since 1997. Of these matches 14 were won by seven or more games, 14 had fewer than nine games in the first set and half included a 6/0 set.

Recommendation: Split stake - Wozniacki to win -6.5 games at 2.1, Sky Bet
                                                          Under nine 1st set games at 2.5, Stan James


Vera Zvonareva (1.33) v Kaia Kanepi (4)

Both these players have rediscovered their best tennis this season and this will be their first meeting.

Zvonareva has won eight of her last nine matches with seven 2-0 wins and her only defeat coming against Wozniacki. She’s also won 10 of 11 hard-court matches this year when the favourite against players currently ranked 11-50, with seven 2-0 wins and nine by five or more games. She’s also won all 15 of her completed matches this year when 1.25-1.5 to win with 12 2-0s and 12 by five-clear games.

Kanepi has dropped a couple of sets on her way to her third Grand Slam quarter-final including in her last match when she fought back after losing the first set 6/0 as Wickmayer hit 37 unforced errors in the final two sets. However, she’s lost seven of 10 matches on hard courts against current top 10 players since 2008, with six defeats by five or more games. Moreover, she’s hit 125 unforced errors in the three matches with stats available compared to just 92 in four matches by Zvonareva and the Russian has an excellent defensive game which should make it harder for her to find the necessary winners to advance.

Since 2001 17-32 seeds have played a higher seed in the fourth round or later 29 times, with the higher seed winning 24 of the matches including six of the seven in the quarters or semis. Furthermore, 20 of those wins were by five or more games and 18 were in straight sets.

Recommendation: Zvonareva to win -4.5 games at 1.91, Stan James

 
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