Rafael Nadal (1.33) v Novak Djokovic (4)
Djokovic has won the last three meetings between these two, all of which have been on hard courts but none of which have been since last November. Overall Nadal leads by 14 wins to seven, although that is skewed by the Majorcan’s 9-0 record on clay and it is Djokovic who’s won seven of their nine hard-court matches. However, they’ve met in four previous finals and the Serb has won just one set in those matches, while his last three wins over Nadal were all while the World Number One was in his slump during the second half of last year.
Nadal has won 18 of his last 22 finals and has not dropped a set in his last five, while he’s won 22 of 26 Masters and Grand Slam finals when the favourite, with 13 of his 16 wins since 2007 coming in straight sets. Furthermore, he’s won his last five Grand Slam finals with both victories this year coming without dropping a set. Since 2007 Nadal has won 19 of 23 Grand Slam matches when 1.2-1.5 to win with 15 of those victories coming in straight sets. Furthermore, he’s bidding to become the first player to win the US Open without dropping a set – something he’s achieved twice at the French Open.
Djokovic staved off two match points against Federer but will surely be mentally and physically exhausted as a result. This could be particularly crucial here as seven of the last nine winners had played fewer games in their semi. With this is mind the forecast looks to have done the Serb a favour and there is a chance they might have to wait till tomorrow to play.
The Serb will be appearing in just his second final of the year and his first for almost 12 months against a current top five player. Furthermore, he’s lost seven of eight Masters and Grand Slam finals against current top-five players, including six defeats in straight sets.
Top seeds have won five of the seven US Open finals they’ve contested since 1990, with three wins in straight sets, and 11 of the last 20 finals have finished 3-0.
Recommendation: Nadal to win 3-0 at 2.88, Betfair