Rafael Nadal (1.1) v Fernando Verdasco (10)

Fernando Verdasco produced a stunning fight back in the last round but will need to produce his very best on every point if he wants to stay with Nadal given his illustrious compatriot’s 11-nil head-to-head advantage. Furthermore, Verdasco has been beaten in straight sets in nine of those matches and won just one game when they met in the final of Monte Carlo this spring, although he did famously take Nadal to five sets the last time they met on hard courts at the 2009 Australian Open.

Verdasco’s match against Ferrer lasted almost four-and-a-half hours and while he has a good record following a five-set win he lost to Almagro at the French Open and Ferrer in Rome this year following very hard matches in the previous rounds. While Verdasco won four of five matches on clay earlier this year against current top 10 players he’s lost 20 of 23 such matches on hard courts since 2008, although he took at least one set in 16 of those games. However, he has won his last two matches against number one seeds, although he’d lost his previous eight since 2008 including five in straight sets.

Nadal improved his record to 23 wins in his last 24 matches against Spaniards and W27-L1 against left-handers when he beat Lopez in the previous round. Furthermore, he’s won 25 of 27 sets against lefties since Verdasco took two off him in Australia and before Murray beat him in Toronto he’d won 16 of his last 17 sets against current top 10 players. Moreover, he’s won 12 of 14 completed Grand Slam quarter-finals, including his last 10 of which eight have been in straight sets.

Seeds have played six US Open quarter-finals since 1990 against lower ranked players when they’ve taken three sets for their previous match and their opponents have taken five and they’ve won five times with four 3-0 wins and four by seven or more games.

Recommendation: Nadal to win 3-0 at 1.84, Betfair

Mikhail Youzhny (1.67) v Stanislas Wawrinka (2.25)

Both players have won two matches against the other, although Wawrinka’s wins came on clay while Youzhny’s were on hard courts, including in Miami this year.

This is Youzhny’s fourth Grand Slam quarter-final having reached this stage in the French open this year and here four years ago when he beat Nadal to advance to his sole semi-final at this level. The Russian has won 14 of his last 16 matches against players currently ranked 11-25 including all six this year, and he’s also won seven of eight outdoor hard-court matches this year when 1.5-2.0 to win.

Wawrinka was on court for four-and-a-half hours in beating Querrey who held twice as many break points as the Swiss during the match, but that win improves his record against players ranked 11-25 to W6-L7 in the past 12 months. He also has a reasonable record after winning five-setters of W4-L6, although few of those five set wins will have been as long and close as the one he’s just had. The Swiss has lost eight of 10 matches since 2009 when 2.0-2.5 to win, but he did take at least a set in nine of those matches. This will be his first Grand Slam quarter-final.

9-16 seeds have won three of five quarter-finals against lower ranked seeds since 1990, including both matches 3-0 where their opponent had gone to five sets in their previous match. Furthermore, when two seeds have met in the quarters or semis and the lower ranked has gone to five sets in the previous round the higher placed player has won all 14 matches including in straight sets in eight of the 12 where they avoided a fifth set in their previous round.

Recommendation: 0.5pt Youzhny to win 3-0 at 5.8, Betfair

Kim Clijsters (1.53) v Venus Williams (2.8)

Both players have won two US Open titles and six of their 12 meetings with each other. However, Clijsters has won their past four matches, including both since her comeback, and while Williams has not reached the final here since 2002 the Belgian has won on her last two trips here and reached the final the time before.

Clijsters was below her best in a poor quarter-final as she beat Stosur 2-1 but she’s won all three of her semi-finals here, with two wins in straight sets. Moreover, she’s won seven of her last nine matches against current top 10 players, and has taken the first set in all 10 such matches she’s played since her comeback.

Williams’ knee has not appeared to inhibit the American’s movement so far but if it is a weakness Clijsters will surely exploit it. Venus has appeared in just one semi-final away from Wimbledon in the past seven years and she lost that in straight sets to Henin here in 2007. However, since 2009 she’s appeared in four major semi-finals and lost the lot in straight sets. She also has an average record against the current top 10 of winning just half her last 14 such matches, including only four of 10 on hard courts.

The higher seed has won 14 of 22 all-seeded semi-finals here since 1997 although 13 have gone to a third set.

Recommendation: 0.5pt Double with Clijsters and Youzhny both to win at 2.85, Bet 365