Vera Zvonareva (3.2) v Kim Clijsters (1.44)

This will be the third meeting between these two since June with Zvonareva having won at Wimbledon and in Montreal, both times after Clijsters had taken the first set. In fact in their six completed career meetings five have gone to a third set. However, given the strong trend for straight-set finals it would seem unlikely that they’ll go the distance again.

Clijsters is appearing in her fourth final in her last four visits to the US Open, having won her last two. Since 2003 the Belgian has won 28 of 38 finals including all four since her comeback and since 2005 she’s won seven of eight Premier and Grand Slam level finals – all of which have been on hard courts.

Clijsters has won eight of her last 10 matches against the current top 10. However, those two defeats were against her opponent today and she’s struggled to get past Stosur and Venus Williams in the past two rounds.

Zvonareva is yet to drop a set here and is appearing in her second consecutive Grand Slam final after being easily beaten by Serena Williams at Wimbledon. She’s won nine of 17 matches since 2009 against current top 10 players; however, she’s lost all seven such matches since 2008 when they’ve taken place in finals, including taking no more than five games in any of the last four. Furthermore, she’s lost five of her last seven finals – all of which have finished in straight sets – and has lost all seven of career finals when starting as the underdog.

In all Grand Slam finals, just one of the last 16 have gone to a third set (Australia 2010) and since 1999 35 of 46 completed Slam finals have finished 2-0, with 27 being won by at least five clear games, and just 8/47 finals have featured a tie-break. Furthermore, all 14 US Open finals since 1996 have finished 2-0 with just one of the 28 sets featuring a tie-break.

For those that followed our pre-tournament recommendation of backing Clijsters at 5.0 it might be worth taking some cover on Zvonareva given her recent wins over the Belgian. However, with weather conditions forecast to be perfect tonight this should help Clijsters, who will be a massive favourite with the crowd and given their respective finals records she should claim a third US Open title in straight sets.

Recommendation: Clijsters to win 2-0 at 2.26, Betfair