Mikhail Youzhny (1.4) v Tommy Robredo (3.6) 16:00
It’s been four years since these two last met, when Youzhny, who was then unseeded, beat the sixth seeded Robredo for the loss of just three games.
This time around Youzhny is the seed and looks to be playing well after a good win over Isner and before that over in-form outsiders Sela and Golubev. In the past 12 months Youzhny has revived his career, taking his ranking from 60 to 14, and has won 14 of 22 completed matches against players currently ranked 26-50, including 10 of 15 when the favourite. Furthermore, he’s won 11 of his 16 matches when 1.3-1.6 to win in the past 12 months, including W7-L2 on hard courts.
Robredo has benefitted from consecutive retirements by some flaky Frenchmen and while he’s finding some form he’s yet to come up against an opponent playing his best. The Spaniard has lost five of his last seven Tour matches against players now ranked 11-25 with four straight-set defeats. Moreover, since 2009 he’s lost 10 of 11 matches when 3.0-5.0 to win, with nine straight-set defeats. Furthermore, he’s lost eight of his nine Slam fourth-round matches on hard courts with all eight defeats by at least six games
Recommendation: Youzhny to win -4.5 games at 1.86, Betfair
Francesca Schiavone (3.04) v Venus Williams (1.44) 19:30
Williams has won all of her previous seven meetings with Schiavone, although the Italian has taken the first set in both their matches this year.
This is Williams’ first tournament since Wimbledon and while she’s supposedly suffering with a knee injury she’s played fairly well. Since 2009, she’s lost eight of 18 matches against current top 10 players, including seven of the last 13, and has dropped at least a set in all but five of the matches. Furthermore, she’s lost six of 11 of the matches that have been on hard courts with just one 2-0 win. Increasing the sample to the current top 25, Williams has lost 10 of 21 hard-court matches since the start of last year’s US Open Series.
Schiavone has been impressive so far as she looks to have finally refocused after struggling since winning the French Open. The Italian has won four of five matches this year against current top 10 players, and she took a set in the other match. However, she’s lost nine of 16 matches since 2009 when 2.5-4.0 to win with eight of those defeats in straight sets and all nine by at least five games, including six 2-0 defeats in eight outdoor hard-court matches.
Recommendation: No Bet
Sam Querrey (1.87) v Stanislas Wawrinka (2.1) 18:00
Wawrinka won their one previous meeting after a final set tie-break last year in Indian Wells.
Querrey was a comfortable winner against Almagro in the previous round and this is his second consecutive Slam fourth round. Since 2009 Querrey has won eight of 12 matches against players now ranked 11-25 and since 2008 he’s won five of seven matches when 1.8-2.1 to win.
Wawrinka knocked Andy Murray out in the previous round but required a treatment on an injury and will face a far more aggressive opponent today. The Swiss is particularly inconsistent and his previous match is no guarantee of another win and going back to Cincinnati last year he’s lost seven of 12 matches against players currently ranked 11-25.
Players who have beaten a top-four seed and then had to face a 17-32 seed in the next round have won only half their eight matches. In the three previous matches between two 17-32 seeds here, the higher ranked player has always won. Furthermore, the higher seed has won 73 of 107 matches here since 1990 where they’ve been 1-8 seeding places higher.
Recommendation: Querrey to win at 1.94, BWin
Fernando Verdasco (1.73) v David Ferrer (2.3) 21:30
Verdasco leads the head-to-head by six wins to four, although Ferrer won their most recent meeting. However, the only time they’ve met on anything other than clay was back in 2004.
Verdasco looks to be playing himself into some form after surviving a five-set first round match. However, he’s lost his last five matches against players currently ranked 11-25 and five of his seven such matches in the past 12 months when 1.6-2.0 to win.
Ferrer is yet to drop a set and is a former semi-finalist here. He also showed slightly better form coming into the event. However, he’s lost 11 of his last 12 matches on hard courts against current top 10 players, although seven of those matches were against the current top four and he’s actually won six of his last eight outdoor hard matches against players ranked 11-25. Ferrer has won seven of his 10 completed matches against Spaniards other than Nadal in the past 12 months.
The higher seeded player has won 15 of 28 completed US Open matches between two 5-16 seeds since 1990.
Recommendation: No Bet
Kim Clijsters (1.25) v Sam Stosur (5) 00:00
Clijsters has won all their previous three matches in straight sets, including this year in Miami.
Clijsters has won six of her last seven hard-court matches against current top-10 players, with five of those wins coming in straight sets and four by five or more games. Furthermore, she’s won nine of 10 matches since her comeback when 1.2-1.4 to win with seven 2-0 victories in the nine completed matches and six wins by six or more games with the other two by exactly five. Moreover, the Belgian lives nearby and has won 24 of her last 25 matches here with 20 2-0 wins, including 10 in 15 matches against seeded players (W14-L1).
Stosur can count herself lucky to have survived against Dementieva after being match points down. However, she will have to improve massively to beat Clijsters who will almost certainly target her weaker backhand side more than her other opponents to date. This year she’s lost four of seven matches against current top 10 players when the underdog, with all seven matches settled in straight sets. Moreover, since 2009 she’s lost seven of nine hard-court matches when greater than 3.0 to win, with six 2-0 defeats and five by five or more games.
Top-four seeds have won 18 of 25 matches here against 5-8 seeds in quarter-final and semi-final matches since 1997, with 14 2-0 wins while all seven defeats have been 2-1. Furthermore, when narrowing the sample to top-two seeds they’ve won in straight sets in 11 of 16 matches.
Since 2006 there have been 15 US Open matches from the quarter-finals on where one player was shorter than 1.4 to win and they’ve won every time with 13 2-0 wins.
Recommendation: Clijsters to win 2-0 at 1.62, Sky Bet
Rafael Nadal (1.06) v Feliciano Lopez (13) 01:30
Lopez beat Nadal at Queens this year in their last meeting, but Nadal had won their five previous encounters. Before that defeat Nadal had won 22 consecutive matches against Spanish players and 27 in a row against left-handers, and the top seed has also won 14 of his last 18 outdoor hard-court matches against players currently ranked 11-25. Moreover, he’s won all 71 of his outdoor hard matches when shorter than 1.1 to win (W198-L2 on all surfaces), including 21 3-0 wins in 26 such Slam matches.
Lopez benefitted from a retirement to progress in the previous round to reach just the seventh Grand Slam fourth round of his career. However, he’s unlikely to advance further as he’s lost seven of his last eight matches against the current top 10 and 17 of 19 career meetings with the Big Four (he also beat Nadal in 2003 when Nadal was just 17) with 13 straight-set defeats.
However, while this match-up looks bad for Lopez, Djokovic’s straight-set win over Mardy Fish yesterday was the first time in 13 matches here since 2001 that a top-four seed has beaten a 17-32 seed 3-0.
Recommendation: No Bet