Roger Federer (1.33) v Novak Djokovic (4)

Federer has won 10 of his last 15 matches against Djokovic, including beating the Serb at the recent Rogers Cup and in four of their five Grand Slam meetings. Furthermore, he’s ended Djokovic’s US hopes in each of the past three years.

Although Djokovic has won three of their last eight matches he’s always lost the first set and the Swiss has a superb record of starting quickly. This is shown in his records against Murray, Djokovic and Soderling since 2008 where Federer’s won 18 of 31 matches but has taken the first set in 27. Only one of these eight consecutive first set wins Federer has had over Djokovic has been via a tie-break with 6/3 (three times) and 6/4 (twice) the most popular scores.

While most of their best-of-three set matches have gone the distance – seven of eight completed matches have gone to a decider – just one of their six five-set matches has not been finished in straight sets, with Federer winning 3-0 on four occasions and 3-1 once while Djokovic’s only win was another 3-0.

Federer has won 11 of 14 hard-court Grand Slam matches against current top 10 players since 2008 with seven straight-set victories and his record in New York is phenomenal as he bids for a seventh consecutive final; a run that has seen him extended to five sets just three times, with 3-2 wins over Agassi in 2004 and Andreev in 2008 and last years finals defeat to Del Potro. Furthermore, he’s played five top-four seeds since 2004 and dropped just one set. The Swiss Maestro has also won 18 of his last 19 Slam semi-finals with 12 3-0 wins.

Djokovic has played superbly since his first round let-off, although Monfils looked to be struggling with the wind more than most in his quarter-final and if it blows again Federer is one of the best wind-players of all-time. Worryingly for the Serb he’s lost all six matches he’s played this year against current top 10 players, with four straight-set losses, including three defeats to Verdasco and one against an out-of-form Roddick in Cincinnati. Furthermore, Djokovic has lost six of eight Slam semis he’s been in, including four 3-0 losses.

Since 1990 there have been 29 all-seeded semis here, with the higher seed winning 21 including 12 in straight sets. However since 1995 there have been nine all-top-four seed semis and while the higher seed has won eight, five of those have been 3-1 with two 3-0s.

More generally, of the 40 US Open semi-finals since 1990 the winner has won by five or more games on 31 occasions (78%) and 21 have had fewer than 10 games in the first set. With this in mind, while it's currently possible to back Federer to win 3-0 and cover that with the 3-1 win to get a 100% payout in the event of a 3-0 and your money back with the 3-1, it seems better value to back Federer on the -4.5 games handicap given he should beat it if he wins 3-0 (as 18/19 3-0 SF winners have done) and also has a good chance if he wins 3-1 (12/16 have beaten it).

Recommendation: Federer -4.5 games at 1.83, Sky Bet

Rafael Nadal (1.1) v Mikhail Youzhny (9.9)

Nadal is bidding to reach his first US Open final while Youzhny will return to the top 10 in the world after this tournament. This will be their 12 meeting with Nadal having won seven of the previous 11. However, they’ve not played for over two years and the Russian leads 4-2 in their matches on hard-courts, including a win here four years ago and a 6/0, 6/1 routing of the Spaniard in the Chennai final at the start of 2008.

However, despite that Nadal deserves to be such a massive favourite given his form since April and in particular during this fortnight. The World Number One has won 10 of his 13 Slam semi-finals although he’s lost three of his four on hard courts despite starting as the favourite in all four. He’s also won 12 of 15 matches this year against players ranked 11-25, although he’s won in straight sets in just three of seven matches not on clay.

Youzhny was ranked 60 in the world a year ago as he lost to Chiudinelli in the second round. Since then he’s enjoyed a superb 12 months as he’s reached six finals. However, he’s lost nine of his last 12 matches against the current top 10 and seven of his last eight against the current top five, of which five have been in straight sets. Furthermore, he’s lost 10 of 11 matches since 2005 when greater than 6.0 to win, with nine of those defeats coming in straight sets, and although he took the opening set in his only previous Slam semi-final he was comprehensively beaten in the end.

Since 1990 there have been 14 all-seeded semi-finals with one player at least four places higher, and the higher ranked player has won 10 times with eight in straight sets. Furthermore, there have been nine semis since 1990 where one player has been on court for at least 30 more games than his opponent in his last four matches (Youzhny has played 49 more games than Nadal) with the fresher player winning eight times, including five in straight sets.

Recommendation: Nadal to win 3-0 at 1.73, Sporting Bet