Tennis / Preview / Us Open Day Three Preview

US Open Day Three Preview

Andy Murray gets his campaign off and running this afternoon as we highlight five matches from todays order of play.

Andy Murray

 

Carsten Ball (2) v Albert Montanes (2.02) 16:00

Australian Carsten ball resides in California and this is the 23 year olds favourite surface, with the 6’6” left-hander able to utilise his serve to the fullest. He recently won the Lexington Challenger without dropping a set and was a comfortable winner in round one. Moreover, he’s won five of his last seven outdoor hard court matches against players currently ranked 11-100, having reached the final in LA last year.

Montanes sneaked past Przysiezny in five sets in round one in his first hard court match for over five months – worryingly his Polish opponent had lost his last six matches and was also not comfortable on hard courts. Montanes’ record here is a terrible W2-L8 and he’s lost four of six completed outdoor hard court matches since 2007 against current 101-200 ranked players.

Since 2004, four of seven seeded players that went to five sets in the first round have lost their completed second round matches.

Recommendation: Ball to win at 2.0, Stan James


Kevin Anderson (1.91) v Thomaz Bellucci (2.1) 16:00

The big-serving South African Anderson has had a very successful US Open series as he reached the semis in Atlanta – where it was unbelievably hot – and came through qualifying to reach the third round in Toronto. Moreover, he’s won six consecutive matches against players now ranked 26-100 since switching to hard courts, all without dropping a set, and has also won eight of nine matches this year when 1.7-2.10 to win, including a perfect W5-L0 record on hard courts.

Bellucci has lost five of his last seven matches and has never been past the second round here. Furthermore, he’s lost three of four matches against players currently ranked 51-100 since Wimbledon and has also lost half his 12 outdoor hard court matches since the US Open last year against 26-100 ranked players. Moreover, he’s lost seven of 12 hard matches when 1.8-2.4 to win since 2008.

Recommendation: Anderson to win at 1.80, Victor Chandler

 


Ana Ivanovic (1.44) v Jie Zheng (2.88) 16:00

Ivanovic may have lost her last two matches against Jie Zheng (both in 2008) and be ranked 17 places lower but she comes into this match in the better form of the two and was very impressive in her opening round.

The Serb looks to be over the injury she suffered in Cincinnati and has now won her last five completed matches. Furthermore, since 2009 she’s won 10 of 15 hard court matches against players now ranked 11-50 when the favourite, including seven 2-0 victories and eight by four or more games. Furthermore, she’s won seven of eight hard matches this year when 1.4-1.7 to win, including five in straight sets.

Zheng reached the semis at the Australian Open courtesy of a soft draw but has won just half her 16 matches back to the start of the French Open despite reaching the quarters in Montreal. Her recent defeats have also been heavy ones as each of her five defeats since Wimbledon have been 2-0 and her last four have all been by six or more games. Zheng has lost four of her last five matches against players ranked 26-50 and has also lost eight of her last 11 completed matches when 2.5-3.5 to win with five defeats by four-clear games and five in straight sets.

Recommendation: Ivanovic to win 2-0 at 2.2, Victor Chandler


Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (1.17) v Sania Mirza (6.8) 16:00

Mirza won when these two met last year but since then the Russian’s game has improved massively while Mirza’s has gone the other direction.

Pavlyuchenkova has no points to defend here and will be looking to climb into the top 20 after this event, having already claimed two hard court titles this year. Furthermore she reached the semis in Cincinnati and has won seven of her eight completed hard court matches since 2009 against players currently ranked 101-200, including six wins by six or more games. Moreover, she’s won all 10 of her career matches when shorter than 1.25 to win, with eight wins by seven or more games.

Mirza has come through qualifying and had a good first round win, but this will be a massive step up compared to her recent opposition. She’s lost 13 of her last 14 matches when greater than 3.0 to win, including 10 defeats by six or more games. Furthermore, she’s lost eight of her last nine matches against players currently in the top 100, with six straight set defeats and six by five or more games.

Recommendation: Pavlyuchenkova to win -5.0 games at 1.85, Sporting Bet


Andy Roddick (1.2) v Janko Tipsarevic (5.6) 01:30

Roddick and Tipsarevic lock horns for the third time with their series tied at one win apiece, although both matches were very tight affairs at Wimbledon with two tie-breaks in each match as they both went to a fourth set.

Roddick found some form in Cincinnati as he reached the semis, although four of his five matches there featured at least one tie-break. Since 2009 the American has won 14 of 15 completed outdoor hard court matches against players currently ranked 26-50, but has dropped sets in three of the four most recent matches. He’s also dropped a set in five of his last seven second round Grand Slam matches not on clay and has won just 4/13 Slam matches since 2008 in straight sets when 1.1-1.3 to win.

Tipsarevic is fully recovered from an ankle injury picked up in Toronto and is in good form. The Serb reached the semis in LA, the quarters in Washington and had an excellent win in the first round. He’s also won four of six Tour matches not on clay against current top 10 players since 2008, with just three straight set defeats, and this includes two wins in three such Slam matches with his defeat being 10/8 in the final set against Federer.

Recommendation: Over 36.5 games at 1.9, Paddy Power

 
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