Arnaud Clement (1.8) v Eduardo Schwank (2.1)
Both players scored underdog wins in the first round, although the Frenchman’s was the more impressive as he knocked out the in-form Baghdatis in a five-set match in the afternoon heat.
The veteran Clement is a former quarter-finalist here although he’s reached the third round just once since 2002. However, he’s a former finalist at the Australian Open so clearly copes well with the heat and reached the third round at Wimbledon. His performances at the Slams have been decent in the past couple of years despite some poor draws, as he’s won two of three matches when the favourite since 2009 and also two of seven when the underdog (both times greater than 3.0). Moreover, he’s won five of his last eight outdoor hard matches against players currently ranked 51-100 and five of eight matches in the past 12 months when 1.6-2.0 to win.
Schwank has lost eight of his last 10 matches and this is the clay court specialist’s first time reaching the second round at a Slam outside of Roland Garros. He’s also lost eight of his last 10 completed hard matches when the underdog and 13 of 20 matches since 2009 against players currently ranked 51-100, including both matches on hard courts.
Recommendation: Clement to win at 1.84, Betfair
Novak Djokovic (1.17) v Philipp Petzschner (6.5)
Djokovic won the only previous meeting between these two players, although that was back in 2004 at a clay-court Challenger event.
The Serb has won 24 of his last 25 outdoor hard matches against players currently ranked 26-100 including seven wins by seven or more games in eight such Grand Slam matches. Furthermore he’s won four of six Slam matches this year when 1.1-1.25 to win and when the favourite having dropped one or more sets in his previous match at a Slam since 2009 he’s won eight of nine matches – all by seven or more games. Furthermore, a lot of the Serb’s recent problems have been caused by the intense heat and for this match he’s been granted a late-night slot.
Petzschner was an impressive winner in the first round having lost his previous six matches. The German has played 11 matches against current top 10 players since 2009 and has had two wins. However, he’s lost seven of eight hard court matches since 2009 against players who were in the top 25 at the time including four straight-set defeats against players who were in the top 15. Remarkably, eight of his last 10 Slam matches have gone to five sets, but he’s lost all five of his matches at the majors when greater than 5.0 to win, including three by seven-clear games and the other two by six.
Since 1990, 14 top-four seeds have won their previous match in five sets and then played a non-seed with 12 winning and 10 doing so by seven or more games.
Recommendation: Djokovic to win -6.5 games at 1.85, BWin
James Blake (1.57) v Peter Polansky (2.7)
After the exit of Andy Roddick last night American expectation falls on the shoulders of James Blake. In recent times Blake has struggled for form after missing almost four months through injury before Wimbledon. He’s suffered some heavy defeats since his comeback, although a quarter-final showing in LA and then his first round win here give some hope. He’s won six of his eight outdoor hard matches against players currently outside the top 100 since 2009, including three out of four such matches this year and all four Slam matches for the loss of just one set.
Furthermore, Blake has only once failed to reach the third round here since 2002 and has won five of eight hard matches this year when 1.4-1.7 to win, including his last two in the past 10 days with just 10 games conceded in five sets.
Polansky scored a big win against Melzer at his home tournament in Toronto and came through a generous qualifying draw before knocking clay-court specialist Juan Monaco out in round one. However, his form has generally not been that good and he’s lost 17 of 22 matches against players currently ranked 101-200 since 2009, including six of nine on hard courts this year. This is his first appearance in the second round of a Slam and he’s lost three of his previous four matches when 2.4-3.5 to win.
Wild cards have won 11 of 19 matches against qualifiers at the US Open, including all four second round clashes.
Recommendation: Blake to win -2.5 games at 1.95, Sporting Bet
Kateryna Bondarenko (1.91) v Dominika Cibulkova (2.03)
Cibulkova won their only previous meeting two years ago, although then she was a clear favourite.
Bondarenko knocked out eighth seed Li Na in the first round and played well at New Haven last week. She was a quarter-finalist here a year ago and has won seven of 12 matches since 2009 against players currently ranked 26-50, including four of five matches on hard courts. Furthermore, she’s won her last seven matches when 1.7-2.0 to win, with six 2-0 wins.
Cibulkova has been struggling for form this year as her only notable wins have been over Safarova at Wimbledon and against Kuznetsova in January. She’s lost three of five matches since Wimbledon against players ranked 26-100. Moreover, she’s lost four of her last five matches when 1.9-2.4 to win, as well as each of her four such matches on hard courts since 2009.
Recommendation: Bondarenko to win at 1.94, Betfair
Patty Schnyder (1.83) v Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez (2.15)
Martinez-Sanchez struggled through her opening round match against a wild card and was thrashed by Dementieva in New Haven in her only other match since returning from two months out injured. Since 2009, she’s lost six of 13 outdoor hard court matches against players now ranked 26-100, including four of six when the underdog. Her record of W3-L3 at the US Open and the fact she’s lost three of her four matches on outdoor hard courts when 1.9-2.5 to win since 2009 also make her the rightful underdog in this match despite her seeding.
Schnyder has been enjoying some good recent form as she reached the second round in Montreal having reached the final and semis in back-to-back clay events after Wimbledon. The veteran Swiss has reached the fourth round or better on five occasions here and she’s won seven of 10 matches since 2009 when the favourite against players currently ranked 11-50.
Recommendation: Schnyder to win at 1.83, Stan James
Urszula Radwanska (1.8) v Lourdes Dominguez-Lino (2.15)
Dominguez-Lino scored a big upset in the first round having come through qualifying. This is the Spaniard’s first tournament on anything other than clay since she won just two games against Dulgheru at a hard court Challenger in March. She’s won eight of nine hard court matches against players ranked outside the top 100 this year but has lost four of seven matches when 1.9-2.5 to win since 2008 and she’s never been past the second round of a Grand Slam.
Radwanska only returned from spine surgery a month ago and her win over Chakvetadze in the first round was very impressive given the Russian’s recent form of reaching the semis or better in her previous three tournaments. The Pole is most comfortable on hard and grass courts and she’s won eight of 12 outdoor hard matches against players now ranked 101-200 since 2009. Furthermore, she’s won six of her last nine matches when 1.6-2.0 to win and is former junior finalist here.
Recommendation: U Radwanska to win at 1.8, Extrabet
Already Advised:
Carsten Ball (2) v Albert Montanes (2.02) 16:00
Australian Carsten ball resides in California and this is the 23 year olds favourite surface, with the 6’6” left-hander able to utilise his serve to the fullest. He recently won the Lexington Challenger without dropping a set and was a comfortable winner in round one. Moreover, he’s won five of his last seven outdoor hard court matches against players currently ranked 11-100, having reached the final in LA last year.
Montanes sneaked past Przysiezny in five sets in round one in his first hard court match for over five months – worryingly his Polish opponent had lost his last six matches and was also not comfortable on hard courts. Montanes’ record here is a terrible W2-L8 and he’s lost four of six completed outdoor hard court matches since 2007 against current 101-200 ranked players.
Since 2004, four of seven seeded players that went to five sets in the first round have lost their completed second round matches.
Recommendation: Ball to win at 2.0, Stan James
Kevin Anderson (1.91) v Thomaz Bellucci (2.1) 16:00
The big-serving South African Anderson has had a very successful US Open series as he reached the semis in Atlanta – where it was unbelievably hot – and came through qualifying to reach the third round in Toronto. Moreover, he’s won six consecutive matches against players now ranked 26-100 since switching to hard courts, all without dropping a set, and has also won eight of nine matches this year when 1.7-2.10 to win, including a perfect W5-L0 record on hard courts.
Bellucci has lost five of his last seven matches and has never been past the second round here. Furthermore, he’s lost three of four matches against players currently ranked 51-100 since Wimbledon and has also lost half his 12 outdoor hard court matches since the US Open last year against 26-100 ranked players. Moreover, he’s lost seven of 12 hard matches when 1.8-2.4 to win since 2008.
Recommendation: Anderson to win at 1.80, Victor Chandler