Sam Stosur (1.33) v Sara Errani (4) 16:00
Stosur has won both their previous matches, although she required a final set tie-break to do so in New Haven last week and will have the pressure firmly on her in this match.
Stosur’s game has been pretty average since her failure in the French Open final. She’s suffered lob-sided defeats in her last three events against Azarenka, Pennetta and Petrova having gone out in the first round at Wimbledon before that. The Aussie is making her first appearance in the third round here having fallen at the opening stage in four of the past five years. While she’s won seven of her eight matches against players ranked 26-50 since April she’s beaten the -4.5 game handicap just once and she lost a set in that match. Furthermore, she’s beaten that handicap in just two of eight matches back to the French Open final when 1.2-1.5 to win, and again dropped a set one of the times she managed to beat it.
Errani thrashed 28th seed Kleybanova in round two and has made the third round at the last four hard-court Slams. The Italian has beaten the +4.5 games handicap in half her last eight matches not on clay against current top 25 ranked players, including the last two. Moreover, since 2008 she’s won seven of 15 outdoor hard-court matches when 3.0-5.0 to win and beat the handicap nine times, while she’s won at least one set in six of the eight such matches this year.
Recommendation: Errani to win +4.5 games at 2.0, Paddy Power
Julien Benneteau (1.73) v Tommy Robredo (2.36) 16:10
The head-to-head record stands at two wins apiece, although none of the matches have been close with the loser not managing more than two games in any set.
Benneteau’s current form is good, although he was physically sick on court during his opening round win. The Frenchman has had good recent wins over Istomin, Llodra and Warinka, while he held match points against Nadal in Cincinnati, and he’s now won six of his last seven matches against players currently ranked 26-50. Furthermore, he’s won nine of 11 hard-court matches since 2009 when 1.6-2.0 to win, while he’s also won all three Slam matches he’s played in this time when similarly priced. Six of Benneteau’s 10 completed Grand Slam match wins since 2008 have been by six or more games.
Robredo has struggled this year and this is the first Slam he hasn’t been seeded for in seven years. He’s lost in the first round of the opening three Slams this year and also been beaten in six of his last nine matches. Furthermore, he’s lost five of his last six matches against players ranked 26-50. 16 of Robredo’s 19 Grand Slam exits since 2006 have been by six or more games.
Recommendation: Benneteau to win -5.5 games at 3.0, Paddy Power
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (1.36) v Gisela Dulko (3.3) 18:00
Pavlyuchenkova is one of the most in-form players on tour as she’s won 11 of her last 13 matches with her only defeats coming against Sharapova and Kuznetsova. Moreover, she’s won seven of nine matches this year against players currently ranked 26-50, including six of seven on hard-courts of which four were won in straight sets and five by five-clear games. Furthermore, she’s won 12 of 13 hard matches this year when 1.2-1.5 to win, with 10 2-0 victories.
Dulko knocked Azarenka out of a second Grand Slam in the previous round but she’s lost her last four matches in straight sets when 2.8-4.0 to win and has lost nine of her last 12 completed hard-court matches when the underdog and playing a current top 25 ranked player with eight 2-0 defeats.
Recommendation: Pavlyuchenkova to win 2-0 at 2.06, Betfair
Flavia Pennetta (1.4) v Shahar Peer (3.3) 21:30
Pennetta has shown no signs of the foot injury that caused her to pull out of New Haven and she carries a 3-1 lead in her head-to-head record against Peer.
The Italian has been in good recent form as she’s won 12 of 15 matches since switching to hard courts with her only defeats coming against Kuznetsova, Clijsters and Wozniacki. Moreover, she’s won 12 of 14 hard-court matches this year when 1.3-1.6 to win, with 11 2-0 victories. She’s also won nine of 14 matches on hard-courts since 2009 against players ranked 11-25, with seven 2-0 wins.
Peer’s form has dropped off recently and she’s lost her last three matches against players ranked 11-25, while she’s yet to be tested this week having played two opponents ranked outside the top 100. Moreover, she’s lost eight of nine matches not on clay since 2008 when 2.8-4.0 to win, with seven 2-0 defeats. Furthermore, she’s lost seven of 10 hard matches since 2009 when playing 11-25 ranked opponents and the underdog with five straight-set losses.
Recommendation: Pennetta to win 2-0 at 2.0, Betfair