Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (1.73) v Francesca Schiavone (2.25)
These two have played twice before with one win each but Schiavone’s came last year on clay in three very close sets while Pavlyuchenkova’s was in straight sets on hard-courts earlier this year.
The Russian has won five of her last nine matches on hard courts against current top 10 players with four wins in straight sets and all five by at least three-clear games. Moreover, she’s won nine of 13 matches when 1.6-2.0 to win, with seven 2-0 victories and all her wins by three or more games.
Schiavone’s yet to drop a set this week but since 2009 the Italian has lost eight of nine completed matches on outdoor hard-courts against players now ranked 11-25 with five defeats in straight sets and seven by three or more games.
Recommendation: Pavlyuchenkova to win at 1.78, Betfair
0.5pt Pavlyuchenkova to win 2-0 at 3.0, William Hill
Feliciano Lopez (2) v Sergei Stakhovsky (2)
Both players narrowly avoided big upset defeats in the previous round as they won in five sets. Although Lopez is the seed his struggles are not a massive surprise given his poor record in Grand Slams where he’s made just two quarter-finals – both at Wimbledon – and has only reached the fourth round here once.
The Spaniard also come into the tournament on a three match losing streak and has lost 11 of 18 completed matches against players now ranked 26-50 since 2009 including losing six of nine on hard courts and four of the last five such matches. Furthermore, since 2008 he’s lost 10 of 16 matches when 1.8-2.2 to win.
Stakhovsky is on an eight match winning streak having claimed the New Haven title coming into this week, and he’s also won his last eight completed matches against players ranked 11-50. Furthermore, the Ukrainian has won eight of 12 career matches when 1.8-2.2 to win.
Recommendation: Stakhovsky to win at 2.0, Victor Chandler
Sam Querrey (1.44) v Nicolas Almagro (3.2)
Querrey was an easy winner in their only previous meeting, which came at the start of 2009 on hard courts. The big-serving American is bidding to reach his second US Open fourth round and he’s won eight of his last 12 matches against players now ranked 11-25, with nine of those matches having at least one tie-break.
Almagro has dropped a set in each of his first two matches but has won all three tie-breaks he’s played. Coming into the tournament the Spaniard had lost two of his three hard-court matches, although he has won two clay events since Wimbledon. Worryingly for Almagro he’s lost 13 of 15 matches since 2009 when playing players now ranked 11-25, with both his wins coming on clay, while nine of his last 12 such matches have featured at least one tie-break.
Recommendation: Querrey to win -3.5 games at 1.8, Sky Bet
Michael Llodra (1.73) v Tommy Robredo (2.2)
Llodra has lost all of his three previous matches with Robredo but this is the first time he’s come in as the favourite. The Frenchman has not dropped a set in either of his opening two matches and has good recent form having had impressive wins over Verdasco and Almagro since Wimbledon as well as pushing Federer hard for a set in Cincinnati. Moreover, he’s won six of his last eight matches not on clay against players ranked 26-50.
Robredo has lost six of his last nine completed matches as well as five of his last six against players ranked 26-50. Furthermore, he’s lost seven of his last 11 outdoor hard-court matches when 2.0-3.0 to win.
Recommendation: See below
Mikhail Youzhny (1.73) v John Isner (2.2)
Youzhny won his only previous meeting with the giant American and has been a comfortable winner in his opening two matches. The Russian has won 11 of his 14 completed matches against players ranked 11-25 since 2009, including four of five when the favourite. Furthermore he’s won seven of his last nine completed matches when 1.6-2.0 to win.
Isner has made a quick comeback from an ankle injury sustained a couple of weeks ago but has lost 20 of his last 30 matches against players ranked 11-50 including four of his last five against opponents ranked 11-25.
Recommendation: Double on Youzhny and Llodra to both win at 2.99, Extrabet