Tennis / Preview / Us Open Day 6 Preview

US Open Day 6 Preview

It's third round action from both draws in New York and we highlight six matches including Jelena Jankovic's match against Kaia Kanepi.

Richard Gasquet

 

Yanina Wickmayer (1.36) v Patty Schnyder (3.2)

This is a first meeting between last year’s semi-finalist and the Swiss veteran. Wickmayer is yet to drop a set in her first two matches but coming into the tournament had lost three of her last four matches as her early season form has dropped off. The Belgian has lost three of her last eight matches when 1.2-1.5 to win and dropped a set in one of the wins as only two of the wins were by more than four-clear games.

Schnyder is making her first third round appearance at a Slam since she reached the quarters here two years ago but has some good recent form having reached a final and semi-final on clay since Wimbledon. Furthermore, she’s played well here this week and beat the 22nd seed in the previous round. Since 2009 she’s won 15 of 27 matches against players now ranked 11-50, including four of the last six and half the 14 hard-court matches, and she’s also won four of her 10 hard-court matches in the past 12 months when the underdog and was beaten by more than four games only three times.

Recommendation: Schnyder to win at 3.55, Betfair

 
Kaia Kanepi (1.83) v Jelena Jankovic (2)

Surprisingly Kanepi has been made favourite for this match against the number four seed, but she can point to a win in their only previous match on hard courts. However, Jankovic won 2-1 in their only other meeting at this year’s French Open.

The Estonian has been having a superb year as she’s improved her ranking by almost 100 places in just over four months. However, her best results came on the clay and she’s been beaten in straight sets by Hantuchova and Clijsters on hard-courts recently, as well as losing to the world number 344 in qualifying for Cincinnati. Kanepi has lost seven of her 10 matches against current top 10 players since 2009, including both matches that went to a third set, while she’s also lost nine of 13 matches against current top 25 ranked players on outdoor hard courts in the same period. Moreover, she’s lost four of five matches on outdoor hard courts since 2009 when 1.7-2.0 to win.

Jankovic has looked pretty average so far, but has battled through two three-set matches and is a former finalist here. The Serb won Indian Wells this year and was in good form before the French Open and has been held back by injuries since. However, she’s won three of her last four matches when 1.8-2.3 to win and has won 16 of her last 22 matches against players currently ranked 26-50, including six of seven on hard courts.

Recommendation: Jankovic to win at 1.90, Betfair


Svetlana Kuznetsova (1.44) v Maria Kirilenko (3)

This all-Russian affair has Kuznetsova as the favourite despite her younger rival having beaten her twice this year. However, the former US Open champion’s form has improved significantly since those two 2-1 clay defeats.

Kuznetsova has won seven of eight matches against players currently ranked 11-50 since the French Open, with her only defeat coming against Sharapova directly after winning the title in San Diego. Furthermore, three of her last four wins were in straight sets and since 2008 she’s won 21 of 27 outdoor hard-court matches when 1.3-1.6 to win with 15 2-0 successes. Furthermore, 13 of her 16 wins here since 2006 have been in straight sets.

Kirilenko had to come from behind to win her last match and she’s lost 13 of 17 matches this year against current top 25 ranked players, including 10 of 12 not on clay, with nine of those 13 defeats in straight sets. The younger Russian has also lost 10 of 11 completed outdoor hard-court matches since 2009 when 2.5-4.0 to win, with seven 2-0 losses, and she’s lost in the third round on each of the previous four occasions she’s reached this stage at Flushing Meadows.

Recommendation: Kuznetsova to win 2-0 at 2.2, Betfair


Juan Carlos Ferrero (1.73) v Jurgen Melzer (2.25)

Ferrero leads the head-to-head by four wins to two although they’ve not met for almost two years.

The Spaniard is a former finalist here and has thrashed his two opponents to reach this point. He also won his last event coming into this week, on clay in Croatia. Ferrero has won nine of 14 matches against players currently ranked 11-25 since 2009, including five of seven such matches at Masters level or higher. Moreover, he’s won 12 of 15 completed matches since 2009 when 1.6-2.0 to win, including six of the last seven and three of five on hard courts.

Melzer produced excellent performances at the last two Slams but has struggled so far here as he’s gone to a fifth set in his opening two matches and coming into this fortnight he’d lost early in each of his last three tournaments. He’s also lost his last three matches against players currently ranked 11-50.

Players that have won their opening two matches 3-2 have lost 11/14 US Open matches since 1990, including all five that have been against a player that won both his opening matches in straight sets.

Recommendation: Ferrero to win -2.5 games at1.96, Betfair


Richard Gasquet (1.4) v Kevin Anderson (3.25)

Gasquet has been at his best this week as he’s despatched Greul and Davydenko in straight sets. The Frenchman has won 11 of 16 matches this year when 1.3-1.6 to win, although he’s won just five of nine on hard courts in that sample. He’s also won four of six hard-court matches this year against players ranked 51-100 with four of the matches containing at least one tie-break and another seeing him drop a set.

Anderson has taken at least one set in eight of his nine matches against players ranked 11-50 since April as he’s won three times. Five of those matches have contained at least one tie-break while two of the others have had a 7/5 set.

In six previous third round matches here since 1990 between two non-seeds where one player has won their opening matches in straight sets and the other went to five in his previous game, their has been just one straight-sets win with five matches having 39 or more games. Also, nine of 13 third round matches between non-seeds have had four or more sets when one player has beaten a seed in straight sets in the previous round.

Recommendation: Over 38.5 games at 1.91, Sporting Bet


Kei Nishikori (1.67) v Albert Montanes (2.38)


Montanes won their only previous meeting, which came on hard courts back in 2008 during the Japanese sensation’s breakout year.

Montanes struggled through his opening match as he made the transition to hard courts from clay, but was excellent in the second round. The Spaniard has enjoyed an excellent year as he’s claimed two titles and had career best results at all four Slams with this his fourth third round showing of the year. Moreover, the Spaniard has won 12 of 16 matches since 2009 when 2.0-3.0 to win.

Nishikori has already played five matches this week and went to five sets in the previous round in a huge win over Marin Cilic. This extends his winning streak to 10 matches having won a Challenger event coming into this, although the highest ranked of those opponents other than Cilic was 90th. Moreover, since 1990 qualifiers have lost 11 of 13 third round matches when they’ve played a five-setter in the previous round.

Recommendation: Montanes to win at 2.38, Stan James

 

 
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