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Cincy & Montreal Tennis SF Preview

American tennis has found some redemption in Cincinnati as Mardy Fish takes on Andy Roddick in today's semi-finals and we preview all four.

Caroline Wozniacki

 

Marcos Baghdatis (3.75) v Roger Federer (1.33)

Federer has won six of their seven previous meetings, although the Cypriot won when they met earlier this year in Indian Wells courtesy of a final set tie-break.

Baghdatis’ recent form is excellent with a finals run in Washington and then impressive wins here over Berdych and Nadal. In fact he’s won his last four hard court matches against current top 10 players, with three of the last five (all this year) going to a third and final set. However, this is his first semi-final at Grand Slam or Masters level since 2007.

Since 2008 Federer has lost five of seven hard court Masters semis, although five of those matches did go to a third set, and his two wins came last week in Toronto and here a year ago. The World Number Two has won four of his five Masters matches against players currently ranked 11-25 since 2009, with all those matches going to a third set.

Seeds have won all nine of their semis against non-seeds here since 1990, although five have gone to a final set.

Federer has looked in better form in the past two weeks and while Baghdatis has impressed this week the Swiss should progress, although it may well take three sets for him to do so.

Recommendation: No Bet


Andy Roddick (1.62) v Mardy Fish (2.5)

This is a repeat of the 2003 final here and also the recent Atlanta semi, with Roddick winning the first of those and Fish the more recent. Overall though, Roddick has won nine of their 11 matches.

Roddick has transformed his form this week as he’s had back-to-back top-ten wins and he’s now playing like the guy who’s won 21 of 25 matches on outdoor hard courts against current top 50 players this year. The American number one has had at least one tie-break in five of his nine matches since Wimbledon, including in three of four this week. Furthermore, there have been one or more tie-breaks in 18 of his 28 outdoor hard court matches against current top 25 ranked players since 2009

Fish has been in great form of late as the 30lbs he’s lost since last year has shown off with recent wins in Newport and Atlanta. Moreover, Fish has won six of his last eight matches against current top 25 players, including each of his last three against those currently in the top 10. Moreover, six of those eight matches against top 25 players had at least one tie-break, as did all three against top-10 members (two had two breakers).

10 of the last 22 finals in Cincinnati have had at least one tie-break and with bost players serving superbly this week it would be a surprise if this match didn’t also feature one.

Recommendation: Tie-break in match – yes at 1.67, Sky Bet


Svetlana Kuznetsova (2) v Caroline Wozniacki (1.91)

These two have shared their four previous matches, although this is their first meetings since the Dane sneaked through in three tight sets at last year’s US Open.

Kuznetsova has won nine of her last 10 matches as she’s found form since moving onto hard courts after Wimbledon. Since 2009 Kuznetsova has won 11 of 20 matches against current top 10 players, despite losing seven of nine after her French Open title last year until her recent surge. Furthermore, 13 of those 20 matches had three sets. The Russian also has an impressive record in semi-finals as she’s won 10 of 13 since 2008.

Wozniacki’s played well this week and she’s now won nine of her last 10 matches. She’s also won 11 of her 21 completed matches on hard courts since the start of last year’s US Open against current top 25 ranked players, of which 10 have gone to a third set. However, she’s lost six of eight matches when narrowing this sample to the current top 10.

Half the eight semis between a top-four seed and a 5-16 seed here since 1997 have gone to a third set. Since 2007, there have been 12 matches here between two players who were both 1.85-2.10 to win, with 10 of those matches going to a third set.

Recommendation: Split stake – Kuznetsova to win at 2.06, Betfair,
                                                           Three Sets at 2.5, Sporting Bet


Victoria Azarenka (1.57) v Vera Zvonareva (2.62)

Azarenka has won both their meetings this year, with Zvonareva having won their first four matches.

Azarenka has won nine of her last 10 matches and has won six of her nine completed matches against players currently in the top 10 since 2009, with all her wins coming in straight sets. Moreover, she’s won 11 of her last 13 completed matches against current top 25 players on hard courts when the favourite, with nine 2-0 wins.

Zvonareva upset Clijsters in the previous round, although she was helped by an injury to the Belgian, and she’s lost her last 10 matches on hard courts when 2.3-3.0 to win, with seven 2-0 defeats.

Recommendation: Azarenka to win 2-0 at 2.5, Betfair
 

 
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