Svetlana Kuznetsova (1.83) v Agnieszka Radwanska (2.1) 18:00
Kuznetsova has won seven of their previous 10 matches, including all three since 2009 and most recently in the final at San Diego.
The Russian has shown signs of returning to her best form recently as she’s won seven of eight matches with her only defeat against Sharapova and wins over Wickmayer, Pennetta, Radwanska and Pavyluchenkova. Moreover, she’s won 10 of her 13 hard court matches since 2009 when 1.6-2.0 to win.
Radwanska’s form is also good after reaching the semi-finals at Stanford and the final in San Diego. However, she’s lost 24 of 36 completed matches since 2009 against current top 25 ranked players, including 10 of her last 11 such games.
Recommendation: Kuznetsova to win at 1.91, Sky Bet
Andy Murray (1.25) v Ernests Gulbis (4.8) 18:05
Murray has won all four of his past meetings with Gulbis, but the Latvian is a vastly improved player this season.
Murray has won 20 of 24 completed matches on outdoor hard courts since 2009 against players currently ranked 11-50, and while his record is a more modest W6-L3 in such matches this year he played some of his best tennis since reaching the US Open final two years ago in winning the Rogers Cup last week. However, Rogers Cup champions have poor records in Cincinnati the following week and Murray showed a hangover in his laboured win over Jeremy Chardy in his opening match. Moreover, he’s failed to beat the -4.5 games handicap in six of his last 10 completed outdoor hard matches against 11-50 ranked players.
Gulbis demonstrated his return to form in beating Melzer in the previous round and while he lost to Soderling last week in Toronto he pushed him to a third set and was beaten by just two games. Moreover, in his 10 matches against current top-10 players since last year’s US Open (all best-of-three sets) he’s won twice and taken at least one set eight times as he’s been beaten by more than four games just once, including in none of the six hard court matches.
Recommendation: Gulbis to win +4.5 games at 1.80, Sky Bet
Mardy Fish (1.67) v Richard Gasquet (2.38) 18:05
Gasquet won both previous meetings, although they’ve not met for two years and Fish is currently the form player having won 19 of his last 22 matches. The American is full of confidence and is playing the big points superbly as he’s won his last six tie-breaks. Fish briefly dropped out of the top 100 earlier this year but is back to number 36 and he’s won six of his last eight best-of-three set matches against players currently ranked 11-50, with five 2-0 wins.
Gasquet’s tactics of staying way behind the baseline and handing the initiative to his opponent should leave him vulnerable to Fish’s all-court game and, while he’s shown good form on clay in the past few months, his win over Youzhny in the first round was a surprise after he’d lost his past four hard court matches against players now ranked 11-50, including three 2-0 defeats. Furthermore, he’s lost seven of his last 12 best-of-three outdoor hard matches against current 11-50 ranked players with all seven defeats in straight sets.
Recommendation: Fish to win -2.5 games at 2.1, Boyles
David Ferrer (1.83) v Nikolay Davydenko (2.1) 00:05
The head-to-head stands at two wins apiece although the Spaniard is surely the more confident of the two after two good wins over very dangerous opponents in his opening rounds.
Ferrer has won 15 of his last 19 matches when 1.6-2.0 to win, including all seven on outdoor hard courts with six straight set wins. Moreover, he’s won eight of 11 matches since 2008 when the favourite against a current top 10 player, including each of the last four, with five straight-set wins and six by five or more games in the 10 completed matches.
As highlighted yesterday Davydenko is struggling for form and had trouble putting Ginepri away in his opening match. This will be the Russian’s first match against a top 25 player since his return from injury, although he’s lost seven of 13 against top 100 players in this time, and has a W8-L6 record in Cincinnati.
Recommendation: Ferrer to win -2.5 games at 2.1, Boyles
Robin Soderling (1.67) v Andy Roddick (2.38) 00:05
Soderling leads the head-to-head by two wins to one and while Roddick won the last time they met, earlier this year in Indian Wells, the American has struggled terribly with his form since and currently lies outside the top 10.
Soderling was made to work hard against Hewitt in the previous round but is in good form and reached the semis at Indian Wells and Miami earlier this year to show how much he’s improved outdoors on hard courts. The big-hitting Swede has won 20 of 26 completed matches against 11-25 ranked players since 2009, including 10 of 13 on outdoor hard courts, with all 20 wins by at least three clear games.
Roddick has been suffering from Glandular Fever for the past few months as his results have suffered alarmingly and he’s been 1.25 or shorter to win in each of his five defeats back to the French Open (he’s also won just nine matches in this time – all of which he was 1.26 or shorter).
Recommendation: Soderling to win -2.5 games at 2.05, Boyles
Flavia Pennetta (1.8) v Caroline Wozniacki (2.2) 00:00
Wozniacki has won all of their three previous meetings, although it took three tight sets for her to win their last match at this year’s French Open.
Pennetta had another good straight-sets win yesterday to make it 15 wins in her last 19 matches (all 2-0). Moreover, she’s won eight of her last 14 matches against current top 10 players, including four of her last six on hard courts, all six of which have been settled in straight sets. Furthermore, she’s won four of five matches since 2009 against top 10 players when also the favourite, all in straight sets.
Wozniacki was thrashed by Bartoli in Cincinnati and struggled past Schnyder in the previous round. She’s also lost 14 of 25 completed matches against current top 25 ranked players since last year’s US Open, including five of the last seven, and seven of eight such matches since 2009 on hard courts when also the underdog.
Recommendation: Pennetta to win at 1.80, Sporting Bet