Tennis / Preview / Cincy Amp Montreal Tennis Qf Preview

Cincy & Montreal Tennis QF Preview

After a 17% profit from the first four days this week - and 19% for the past two weeks - we highlight four of today's quarter-finals.

Rafael Nadal

 

Novak Djokovic (1.5) v Andy Roddick (2.8)

Roddick had Djokovic’s number last year as he won each of their three meetings in 2009 to take a 4-2 lead in their head-to-head record.

However, Roddick survived a marathon in the night session yesterday having been suffering from fatigue recently and will now have to play in the heat, while Djokovic was a comfortable winner against Nalbandian. The Serb has won 18 of his last 22 matches against current 11-25 ranked players, including six of his seven such matches on outdoor hard courts in the past 12 months. Furthermore he’s won six of seven outdoor hard matches since 2009 when 1.4-1.6 to win, with four 2-0 victories.

Roddick produced his best result since the start of April yesterday but has won just two of six matches since 2009 when having had to play a current top 10 player the round after beating a top-tenner, including three straight-set defeats, while he’s also lost his last four matches when not the favourite having won his previous match having been the underdog.

Top four seeds have won 11 of 15 matches against 9-16 seeds in Cincinnati since 1990, including all five in straight sets when the lower seed had gone to a third set in the previous round.

Recommendation: Djokovic to win 2-0 at 2.5, Betfair


Rafael Nadal (1.28) v Marcos Baghdatis (4.5)

Nadal holds a perfect 6-0 record against Baghdatis and the Spanish ace has won 18 of his last 20 completed matches on hard courts when 1.2-1.4 to win, with 12 straight-set wins. Furthermore, Nadal has won 36 of his last 38 matches and top-four seeds have won 26 of 29 matches against non-seeds in the quarter-finals or later, including all 12 when the unseeded player beat a seed in their previous match. Of those 12 wins eight were by five or more games.

Baghdatis is in great form having reached the final in Washington and beating Berdych in the previous round here. However, he’s lost five of six matches against current top 10 players since 2008 when longer than 3.5 to win and he’s lost four of those by four or more games.

Recommendation: Nadal to win -3.5 games at 1.83, Ladbrokes


Svetlana Kuznetsova (1.36) V Jie Zheng (3.5)

Kuznetsova has won all six of their previous meetings, with four of the five completed matches finishing in straight sets and three won by four or more games.

The Russian has come out of a slump recently to win in San Diego and impress so far this week. Moreover, she’s won 11 of her 14 hard court matches since this time last year against players now ranked 11-25 with eight wins by four-clear games and six in straight sets. Furthermore, she’s won 10 of 13 completed Premier level quarter-final matches since 2007 with seven 2-0 wins.

Zheng has recorded two fine wins this week but this will be her hardest test and she’s lost 10 of 11 career matches when 3-4.5 to win, including eight 2-0 defeats in the 10 completed matches and eight by four or more games.

Since 1997 9-16 seeds have won seven of 10 Canadian Open quarter-finals against non-seeds, with six wins in straight sets and all by four or more games.

Recommendation: Kuznetsova to win 2-0 at 2.0, Betfair


Victoria Azarenka (1.44) v Marion Bartoli (3.25)

Azarenka has been impressive this week as she’s yet to drop a set. However, Bartoli has been even more devastating as she’s dropped just two games after two demolition jobs and a walkover.

With two finals in her past four tournaments Azarenka is one of the form players on Tour and she has a commanding 4-0 lead in her head-to-head with the Frenchwoman, including three 2-0 wins. Moreover, she’s won 12 of 16 completed hard court matches against current 11-25 ranked players, including nine straight-set wins, and she’s an even better 12-2 in such matches when shorter than 2.1 to win.

Bartoli reached the quarters last week before getting hammered by Sharapova and is yet to be tested this week. However, she’s lost nine of 13 matches this year against current top 25 players, including six of nine on hard courts, with six 2-0 defeats. While her total of 26 games played to reach this point is the lowest in the history of this tournament. Since 1997, six of the previous seven players to take 55 or fewer games to reach the quarters and then play a seed lost, with all the defeats in straight sets.

Since 1997 there have been 12 Canadian Open quarter-finals between seeds with a difference of 4-10 places and the higher seed has won nine times, including seven 2-0 wins.

Recommendation: Azarenka to win 2-0 at 2.1, Betfred

 
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