Tennis / Preview / Cincy Amp Montreal Day Three Preview

Cincy & Montreal Day Three Preview

After 4 of 5 calls coming in yesterday we highlight a further seven matches from today's play.

Robin Soderling

 

Francesca Schiavone (1.91) v Ekaterina Makarova (2) 17:00

Schiavone’s woes continued last week as the French Open champion lost her fourth match in five since Roland Garros (beating Anne Keothavong) as her career carries all the hallmarks of other one-off French Open champions from the recent past; Majoli, Gaudio and Gomez who made just one Slam quarter-final appearance between them after lifting the title in Paris. Moreover, she’s now lost six of her last 10 matches against players currently ranked 26-100, including each of the last four.

In contrast Makarova looks hungry for success and has won 18 of her last 22 matches including four so far this week to come through qualifying without dropping a set. Included in that sample are five wins in her last six matches against top-25 ranked players, with all those wins coming in straight sets.

Recommendation: Makarova to win at 2.0, Betfred


Flavia Pennetta (1.5) v Alisa Kleybanova (2.98) 17:00

Pennetta won 2-0 when these two met earlier this year and was ruthless in dispatching Hantuchova in round one. The Italian is showing her best form right now and leads the Tour in match wins this year. Remarkably her last 22 matches have all been settled in straight sets and she’s won 14 of 18 since Wimbledon. Conditions here should also help her with the tricky wind causing her opponents more problems as her excellent footwork allows her to compensate. Moreover, she’s won 20 of her last 29 hard court matches against players currently ranked 11-50, with 17 2-0 wins.

Kleybanova has reached just one quarter-final in her last 10 events and her win over Jankovic in San Diego is looking less impressive with every match the Serb plays. The Russian has lost seven of her last eight matches against players ranked 11-25 and 11 of her last 12 matches when 2.5-4.0 to win, including nine defeats in straight sets.

Recommendation: Pennetta to win 2-0 at 2.2, Stan James

 

Mardy Fish (1.7) v Fernando Verdasco (2.28) 17:30

Fish has won two of the three matches between these two, with Verdasco’s only win coming on clay last year. The American is currently in some of the best form of his career having won 18 of his last 21 matches on the way to three finals and two titles. Moreover, he’s won six of his last eight completed matches not on clay against current top 25 ranked players and 10 of 11 when 1.5-2.0 to win since February, including eight straight-set wins in the 10 best-of-three set matches. Furthermore, Fish beat a left-hander, Feliciano Lopez, in his opening match to make it 10 wins in his last 11 matches against lefties.

Verdasco is in a major slump having lost six of his last 10 matches back to his French Open exit and also seven of his last nine matches against players currently ranked 11-50. Furthermore, he lost in the first round here a year ago.

Recommendation: Fish to win at 1.7, Boyles


Ernests Gulbis (1.83) v Jurgen Melzer (2.1) 17:30

Gulbis performed well last week in Toronto as he showed signs of returning to the form he showed in the spring before pulling his hamstring in the first round of the French Open. Moreover, he’s won nine of his last 12 matches against players now ranked 11-25, including each of the last six all in straight sets.

Like Verdasco, Melzer has been struggling for form as he suffered disappointing losses in Stuttgart, Hamburg (in the final but he didn’t face a seed all week), Umag and in Toronto. The Austrian has lost seven of his last 12 matches against players currently ranked 11-50 and has also suffered defeats in 7/12 such matches since 2009 on outdoor hard courts.

Recommendation: Gulbis to win at 1.83, Sporting Bet


David Nalbandian (1.57) v John Isner (2.65) 19:00

Nalbandian continued his impressive run in the first round here to make it 17 consecutive wins excluding against the top four. Furthermore, he’s handed out four bagels in his last 11 matches. Moreover, his recent good form has seen him win his last five matches against players now ranked 11-25 for the loss of just one set, although two of the matches have had a tie-break with two of the other three having a 7/5 in the first set.

The marathon man has shown some good form since Wimbledon as he’s reached the final in Atlanta and claims to be feelings his freshest since London. The Tour-leading ace-hitter has had at least one tie-break in five of his seven matches since moving onto hard courts and he’s played a massive 42 tie-breaks in his 48 matches this year, with 30 matches featuring at least one tie-break. Moreover, he’s had 36 tie-breaks in his 36 career matches against current top 25 players (28 featuring at least one breaker). However, he’s ultimately lost 10 of the last 11 such matches, including five 2-1 defeats in the eight best-of three set matches.

Recommendation: Over 0.5 tie-breaks in the match at 2.1, Paddy Power


Robin Soderling (1.5) v Lleyton Hewitt (3) 00:05

Hewitt has won all three of their previous meetings, although two of those were over six years ago while his 2-1 win here a year ago came while the Swede was struggling with an elbow injury.

This time it is the Aussie who is returning from injury, and he’s now lost 18 of his last 22 matches against current top 10 players, including nine of 10 on hard courts (his win was the match against Soderling).

Soderling has won 13 of 18 matches against players now ranked 26-50 since 2009, and should be match sharp having had two tough three-setters last week in Toronto. Furthermore, he’s won 14 of his last 18 matches and has performed well in the outdoor hard court Masters earlier this year, with semi-final showings in both Indian Wells and Miami.

Recommendation: Double on Nalbandian and Soderling to both win at 2.25, Stan James


Nikolay Davydenko (1.44) v Robby Ginepri (3.25) 20:30

All four of their past meetings have come on hard courts with two wins apiece and three going to a final set, although this is their first match in almost two years.

Davydenko still looks some way from his best tennis after returning from a wrist injury and he was comfortably beaten by Chardy last week in Toronto, to add to recent losses to Chela, Golubev, Gimen-Traver, Nalbandian, Brands and Becker. Moreover, he’s lost 10 of 19 matches since Cincinnati last year when 1.3-1.6 to win, including four of his last seven.

Ginepri traditional plays well at this time of year, with all three of his career titles coming between Wimbledon and the US Open, while he’s a former semi-finalist here. Furthermore, he showed at the French Open that he still has the game to compete and he’s won five of his last 11 matches against players currently ranked inside the top 25.

Recommendation: Ginepri to win at 3.25, Sky Bet


 
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