Roger Federer (1.25) v Mardy Fish (4.5)

Federer leads Fish by five wins to one in their previous meetings, although like so many of his one-sided match-ups these days the Swiss lost the most recent meeting. However, in this case that match was over two years ago. Furthermore, all six of their matches have been pretty one-sided.

Federer is bidding to become the first back-to-back winner in Cincinnati since Andre Agassi won here in 1995 and 1996. Federer might have lost just the second of 14 outdoor hard court Masters finals since 2003 against Andy Murray last week but he still has a superb record and 11 of the matches have been settled in straight sets.

Fish has won four of his last five matches against current top 10 players as well as seven of his last eight matches against current top 25 players during his current run of excellent form. However, he has a poor record in Tour finals having lost 12 of 17 despite winning his two most recent, and he lost both of his previous Masters finals. Furthermore, he’s had two tough matches in the heat in the past two days.

There have been only two previous finals here since 1990 that have featured an unseeded player and both times they were defeated. Furthermore, top-four seeds have won all six of their semis or finals here against non-seeds.

11 of the 14 finals here where one player has not conceded a set on their way to the final have been settled in straight sets. Moreover, in the six finals between players who had won their semi in straight sets against a non-top seed that’d gone to a third set in theirs the fresher of the two won 2-0 on four occasions.

In fact Federer has played just 48 games to reach the final while Fish has played 134 – by far and away the biggest disparity in the past 20 years – with the only other finals where the difference was greater than 30 games being won in straight sets by the fresher player.

Recommendation: Federer to win 2-0 at 1.80, Betfair