While the Canadian Masters had a history of surprises, that never materialised this year, Cincinnati has been dominated by the game's elite with Roger Federer a three-time champion and the current holder.
Key Stats
- All 20 winners since 1990 have been seeds, with 18 top-eight seeds and 10 top-four.
- 18/20 runners-up have been seeded, as have 68/80 semi-finalists.
- Since these Masters were played back-to-back in 1997 just 4/23 Canadian finalist have reached the final here, with 15/23 failing to make the semis and 12/23 losing before the quarters.
- In the past three years 10/11 semi-finalists here who played in Canada the week before were coming off a quarter-final showing or better (in recent years the leading players have performed much better in Canada).
- 16 of the last 17 Cincinnati winners had previously won at least one Masters Title.
- 16/20 winners had reached at least one semi-final in their last two events with 10 having had a win.
Quarter One
Rafael Nadal (5) looked a little rusty in Canada but fits the profile of a champion here where he has never won. The World Number One should be more comfortable with the heat than most and has a 7-0 record against potential Last 16 opponent Nicolas Almagro (176). After that he should face a big test in the shape of Tomas Berdych (17) – who also fits the winner’s profile having claimed the 2005 Paris Masters – but while the Czech continued his fine form last week he’s failed to win a single set in his last seven matches against Nadal.
Quarter Two
Roger Federer (4.5) has been handed a superb draw as he tries to defend his title here and shouldn’t have any problems reaching the semis with the horribly out of form Nikolay Davydenko (70) his scheduled quarter-final opponent. Considering the Swiss’ formidable record against the Russian he should have little problem in that match, although he may well find himself facing David Ferrer (176). However, given his 11-0 record and the fact Ferrer fell in the first round last week Federer will fancy his chances of progressing.
Quarter Three
Andy Murray (4) has also found a decent draw with his likely Last 16 opponent Jurgen Melzer (151) struggling for form right now and Fernando Verdasco (81) his scheduled quarter-finalist in terrible shape right now. In fact the Scot’s more likely quarter-final opponents are Gilles Simon (151) or Mardy Fish (56) and while he’s won his last four meetings with Simon, Fish has beaten him twice this year. However, just two people in the last 13 years have won back-to-back Masters here, with nine players falling before the quarters.
Quarter Four
Novak Djokovic (9) and Robin Soderling (22) look strong favourites to face-off in the quarters with the Swede’s most dangerous opponent being the out of form Andy Roddick (26), who’s been suffering from Glandular Fever in the past few months as he’s struggled to win a match. The Serb might have a slightly harder match in the Last 16 with John Isner (67), David Nalbandian (21), and Indian Wells champion Ivan Ljubicic (201) in his part of the draw. However, he’s won three of four meetings with Nalbandian and six of his last seven against Ljubicic, who has also lost five of his last six matches. Should Djokovic meet Soderling in the quarters he will carry a 5-1 head-to-head advantage into the match.
Our View
The Big Four are all back in form and all match the majority of the winner’s criteria, although with Murray and Federer in the Canada final that should give the edge to the other two. Also, should they all reach the semis again they will face different opponents than last week’s Last Four matches.
Of the other players David Nalbandian fits the winner’s profile, as does Tomas Berdych, however their draws are tough and the value looks to be with Nadal, who has reached the semis here the past two years, and the man who beat him in both those matches, Djokovic, before going on to lose the finals.
Recommendation: Split Stake – Nadal to win at 5.0, Paddy Power
Djokovic to win at 11, Sporting Bet