Andy Murray (1.17) v Jeremy Chardy (5.5)

Murray has won both of his previous encounters with Chardy, although he did drop a set when beating the Frenchman in Cincinnati this year.

Murray has lost two of his last four matches when 1.05-1.25 to win and five of his 17 such matches since this year’s Australian Open. Furthermore, he’s won only eight of those matches in straight sets. However, the Scot’s record this year against players now ranked 26-100 on outdoor hard courts is a more impressive W10-L1 with eight wins in straight sets.

Chardy has had two impressive wins after coming through qualifying. However, since 2009 the Frenchman has won only one of eight Masters and Slam third round matches. Moreover, he’s lost 16 of 21 matches in this time against current top 10 players.

Recommendation: No Bet

David Ferrer (2.25) v Robin Soderling (1.73)

Ferrer beat Soderling last week in Beijing but trails their head-to-heads by three wins to seven. However, the Spaniard has won half the last six with all but the most recent of those six matches being very close.

Ferrer has been in good form since the US Open as he’s reached the semis in Kuala Lumpur and the final in Beijing. Furthermore, he’s won three of seven hard-court matches against players currently ranked 4-10 since 2009, with two of his three defeats going to a final set. While Ferrer has lost seven of 11 matches this year when a 2.0-3.0 underdog, all but one of the defeats went to a final set.

Soderling has lost early in his last two tournaments and while he played well against Tipsarevic he’s lost four of his last six matches against players currently in the top 25 while he hasn’t recorded a straight sets win in any of his last nine such matches. Moreover, he’s lost six of his last nine matches when a 1.4-1.8 favourite, with six of those matches going to a final set.

Recommendation: Split Stake – Ferrer to win at 2.38, Betfair
                                                           Three sets at 2.38, Boyles

Novak Djokovic (1.22) v Richard Gasquet (4.8)

Gasquet won their last meeting which happened in Shanghai three years ago. However, the Serb has won each of their other three meetings.

Djokovic is in superb form and has won 13 of his last 14 matches including seven consecutive wins against top 25 ranked players excluding Nadal. Moreover, Djokovic has won 20 consecutive matches against players now ranked 26-50, with 12 of the 19 completed matches being won in straight sets including five of the last six.

Gasquet has won his last two matches against the current top 10 but overall against the top 25 he’s lost 10 of his last 15 matches. Furthermore, since 2008 the Frenchman has lost all eight of his matches when a 3.0-6.0 underdog, with the last six defeats all in straight sets.

Recommendation: Djokovic to win 2-0 at 1.70, Betfair

Rafael Nadal (1.1) v Jurgen Melzer (9)

Nadal has won all three of their previous meetings without dropping a set and looked in great touch against Wawrinka in the previous round.

Nadal has won 11 of his last 13 matches against players currently ranked 11-25 with 10 of those wins coming in straight sets. Furthermore, Nadal has won 30 of his last 31 matches against left-handers with 29 wins in straight sets, and he’s won 28 of 30 hard-court matches this year when shorter than 1.2 to win with 15 2-0 victories in the 20 best-of-three set matches and 14 having 20 or fewer games.

Since August Melzer has not been on his best form as he’s managed to reach his seeding in only one of his last six events. Moreover, the Austrian has lost each of his 10 matches on hard courts against current top 10 players since 2008 with six defeats in straight sets. Also, Melzer has lost 10 of 19 matches against left-handers since 2009 and in the same period he’s lost four of five matches against number-one seeds with all four defeats being in straight sets.

Recommendation: Nadal to win -4.5 games at 1.8, Bwin

Roger Federer (1.07) v Andreas Seppi (11)

Federer has won all of his six previous matches against Seppi and will be pleased with his form in his opening round win against John Isner. Furthermore he’s won all 13 of the sets he’s contested with Seppi and all four of their best-of three set matches since 2008 have featured fewer than 20 games.

Federer has won 20 of 22 completed matches this year against players ranked 26-100, including all nine on hard courts, with 15 wins in straight sets.

Seppi has been in good recent form but this represents a major step up for the Italian. While Seppi does have a win against Nadal to his name he’s lost his last 19 matches against the current top 10, including his last 12 on hard courts during which he’s won just one set despite seven of the matches featuring at least one tie-break.

Recommendation: No Bet

Juan Monaco (1.9) v Mischa Zverev (2.1)

This is the third meeting between these two players, with Zverev having won on hard-courts the last time they met two years ago.

Monaco had little form coming into this tournament but came from behind to beat De Bakker in the previous round during a rain interrupted match. Monaco has lost seven of his nine third round matches since 2009, including two of three as the favourite. Furthermore, he’s lost three of four matches on hard courts since 2009 when a 1.7-2.0 to win and he’s lost seven of his last 10 matches against players ranked 51-200.

Zverev reached the Metz final last month and has now won four matches here this week, including good wins over Stakhovsky and Davydenko. The German has won five of his last seven matches against players now ranked 26-100 and five of his last seven against opponents who were ranked 26-75 at the time. Moreover, he’s won six of his last eight matches when a 2.0-2.5 underdog.

Recommendation: Zverev to win at 2.1, Betfair