Novak Djokovic (1.13) v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (8)

Djokovic has won all three of his past meetings with Garcia-Lopez, including a straight-sets win earlier this year on hard courts.

Djokovic destroyed Gasquet in the previous round and believes he’s playing some of the best tennis of his career having won 13 of his last 14 matches, including each of the six best-of-three set matches by at least five clear games. Furthermore, the Serbinator has won his last 21 matches against players currently ranked 26-50 and 16 of his last 21 Masters quarter-finals with 13 2-0 wins.

Garcia-Lopez recently beat Gulbis and Nadal on his way to taking the Bangkok title and this week he’s made it past Roddick and Berdych to improve to a W10-L1 record since the US Open. However, he was a set and a break down against Roddick when the American had to retire and he benefitted from a sick and out-of-form Berdych. However, he’s still lost 13 of his 14 matches against the current top six players with 10 defeats in straight sets.

Since 1990 six seeds have played non-seeds in third round or later matches at the first post-US Open Masters when they’ve won their previous round for the loss of no more than four games and they’ve all won in straight sets with four wins by at least five games. Moreover, top-four seeds have won 18 of 19 quarter-finals in these tournaments against non-seeds with 10 2-0 wins in the 17 completed matches.

Recommendation: No Bet

Jurgen Melzer (1.33) v Juan Monaco (3.92)

Monaco has won four of their previous five matches, although Melzer won their last meeting last week on hard courts. Furthermore, all of Monaco’s wins came on clay over three years ago.

Melzer stunned Nadal in the previous round and should be full of confidence. Moreover, he’s won nine of his last 12 matches not on clay against players now ranked 26-50. Also, the only other two players to beat the number one seed in the first post US Open Masters since 1990 and then play a non-seed next both won easily in straight sets.

Monaco thrashed Zverev to reach this point and is clearly improving each round. However, the Argentine has lost eight of his last 10 matches against players currently ranked 11-25 as well as all of his six such matches since 2008 on hard courts.

Recommendation: No Bet

Andy Murray (1.36) v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (3.5)

Murray has won three of his five previous matches with Tsonga, including most recently at Wimbledon this year. Their matches have generally been close affairs as four have featured a total of five tie-breaks.

Murray has lost three of his four Masters quarter-finals this year and he’s lost four of his last six matches against players ranked 11-25 with just three straight-set wins in 14 such completed matches this year.

Tsonga has just returned from a few months out injured but has played well this week as he looks to push for a place at the season ending championships. However, Tsonga’s recent record against the current top 10 is poor as he’s lost 10 of his last 12 such matches. The Frenchman has had at least one tie-break in eight of his last 12 completed matches, including in the first set in half the last 10, and in 17 of 30 matches against the current top 10 not on clay since 2007.

Recommendation: Over 0.5 Tie-Breaks at 2.37, Paddy Power
 

Roger Federer (1.33) v Robin Soderling (3.75)

Federer stamped his authority back on his rivalry with Soderling at the US Open when he won in straight sets to improve to W13-L2 against the Swede, having lost both of their other meetings this year. While neither of their last two matches have featured a tie-break none of the seven sets has been one by more than a single break and in the seven previous matches between the pair there were nine breakers in total and nine of their last 13 completed matches against each other have had at least one tie-break.

Federer’s won all three of his Masters quarter-finals this year and eight of nine since 2009, although five featured at least one tie-break and five went to a third set. Moreover, Federer’s won 11 of his last 15 Masters matches against current top 10 players, although eight have gone to a third set.

Soderling’s impressed in his opening two matches here as he’s recorded back-to-back straight-set wins. The Swede has won nine of 15 matches against top 10 players this year although the opening two sets have been split in six of the last 10 such matches.

Recommendation: Over 0.5 Tie-Breaks at 2.5, Paddy Power