Andy Murray (1.13) v Juan Monaco (6.5)

These two have met twice before, both in 2009; with one win apiece as both matches went to a deciding set.

Murray has improved with each match this week and looks to be back in the winning groove he often finds in hard-court Masters events. The Scot has won 40 of his last 46 matches in outdoor hard-court Masters including a particularly impressive five wins in his last six such semi-finals. Moreover, Murray has won 15 of 16 outdoor hard matches against players now ranked 26-50, including nine wins by at least five clear games in the 11 completed best-of-three matches and seven by six or more.

Monaco has made it to just his second Tour level semi-final on hard courts. However, he’s likely to find it tough to move any further this week as he’s lost 12 of 16 completed matches against current top 10 players since 2008, including all seven not on clay of which the four best-of-three set matches were all lost by five or more games.

Top-four seeds have played eight semi-finals against non-seeds in the first post-US Open Masters and have won six, including by four-clear games in all five completed wins.

Recommendation: Murray to win -4.5 games at 1.8, Bwin

Novak Djokovic (2.36) v Roger Federer (1.7)

Djokovic and Federer meet for the third time in two months and 17th time overall after both have cruised through to the semis. Djokovic has won six of their last 11 completed matches including four of six outside of the Slams, although five of those matches went the distance as did their last meeting at the US Open.

Djokovic has won three of his last four matches against current top 10 players, losing only to Nadal, and is in superb form. Furthermore, he’s won nine of 12 hard-court Masters semis, including going W8-L1 against the other top-four players in these matches.

Federer despatched Soderling in brutal fashion in the quarters and is showing the form he displayed when winning Cincinnati. Federer has won 31 of 39 Masters semis since 2003, although just seven of 13 since 2008 including losing four of six against Murray and Djokovic. Moreover, Federer has lost half his 12 matches against current top 10 players since March.

Recommendation: Djokovic to win at 2.4, Betfair