Tennis / Preview / Shanghai Masters Day Three Preview

Shanghai Masters Day Three Preview

A rain interrupted day in Shanghai couldn't stop Tipsarevic recording a straight-sets win and he's against one of five more matches previewed.

Robin Soderling

 

Robin Soderling (1.5) v Janko Tipsarevic (2.8)

Soderling won their only previous meeting, but that was over four years ago in a minor grass-court event.

Soderling has reached his seeding in only one of his last six events and has bettered it in none as his form has tailed off slightly. Soderling has lost two of his last five best-of-three set matches against players now ranked 26-50 and four of those matches have gone to a third set. Furthermore, Soderling has lost seven of his last 10 matches when 1.3-1.7 to win, including 7/8 excluding Grand Slam matches.

Tipsarevic was a comfortable winner in the first round and has won each of his last four second round matches. Furthermore he’s won two of his three matches against current top 10 players this year as well as three of his five matches when 2.5-3.5 to win since July.

Recommendation: Split Stake – Tipsarevic to win at 2.8, Boyles
                                                            Three sets at 2.5, Paddy Power


Jeremy Chardy (1.62) v Alexandr Dolgopolov (2.38)

Chardy has enjoyed a good recent run of form and has already won three matches this week after qualifying. However, he’s won only half his 12 matches this year against players now ranked 26-50, including three of seven when the favourite. Furthermore the burden of favouritism seems to be a heavy one for the Frenchman as he’s lost nine of his last 15 matches when 1.5-1.8 to win.

Dolgopolov has enjoyed a breakout year and beat Almagro in the first round. The Ukrainian has won 16 of 30 matches against players ranked 26-100 since 2009 and has won three of his last five matches when 2.0-2.8 to win while five of the seven such completed matches this year have gone to a third and deciding set.

Recommendation: Split Stake – Dolgopolov to win at 2.38, Sky Bet
                                                           Three sets at 2.38, Boyles


Thiemo de Bakker (1.6) v Juan Monaco (2.6)

These two have met twice before with De Bakker winning their most recent encounter this year. The Dutchman beat Verdasco in straight sets in the first round and won an opening set tie-break having lost 15 of his last 18 breakers.

Had it not been for his awful recent record in tie-breaks De Bakker’s recent record would probably be excellent and he’s certainly carrying good form. The Dutchman has won five of his last nine matches against players now ranked 26-50 including three of his last four when favourite. Furthermore, he’s won 9/12 matches when a 1.4-1.8 favourite.

Monaco has struggled since returning from injury as he’s lost six of eight matches with his only wins coming against the out-of-form Florent Serra and the world number 223 Greg Jones. Furthermore, he’s lost nine of his last 13 completed matches on hard courts against players ranked 26-50 and 11 of his last 16 matches as a 2.0-3.0 underdog.

Recommendation: See Below


Rafael Nadal (1.25) v Stanislas Wawrinka (4.5)

Wawrinka has lost all 13 sets in six previous meetings against Nadal, including two matches this year. The World Number One is in imperious form right now and has won 10 of his last 12 matches against players ranked 11-25 with nine straight-set wins.

Wawrinka produced a good performance in the first round but is still short of matches since the US Open and has struggled in the past against the game’s elite. Away from the Slams Wawrinka has lost 11 of his last 13 matches against top 10 players including nine defeats in straight sets.

Recommendation: Double with De Bakker to win and Nadal to win 2-0 at 2.6, Boyles


Kevin Anderson (1.73) v Florian Mayer (2.38)

Mayer beat Anderson in their only previous meeting back in January. However, the big-serving South African has improved his ranking by 100 places since then and after coming through qualifying has a couple of wins this week already. Furthermore, he’s won six of his last eight matches against players now ranked 26-100, including all six such matches since 2009 when the favourite. Moreover, he’s won all seven of his matches this year when a 1.6-1.9 favourite.

Mayer’s form has been dropping off recently and he’s lost his last four tournament matches. Moreover, he’s lost five of his last seven matches against players ranked 26-100 and his last five when a 2.0-2.8 underdog.

Recommendation: Anderson to win at 1.73, Betfred

 
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