Tennis / Preview / Paris Masters Tuesday Preview

Paris Masters Tuesday Preview

Tuesday's action from Paris features a number of potential champions and we highlight four of the matches.

Thomas Berdych

 

 

Gilles Simon (1.44) v Andrey Golubev (3)

Simon was a semi-finalist last week in Valencia, where he beat the out-of-form Davydenko and Verdasco. The Frenchman has a good record on home ground having won Metz in September and he’s won eight of 13 matches against players now ranked 26-50 since October last year. Moreover, he’s won 11 of 16 matches on indoor hard-courts against players now ranked 11-50 since 2009.

Golubev has suffered a slump since reaching the Kuala Lumpur final as he’s lost five of his last seven matches. Moreover, he’s lost four of five Tour matches this year where he’s been the underdog against a player now ranked 26-50 and has also lost eight of his last 11 matches when 2.5-4.0 to win.

Recommendation: See Below

 

Tomas Berdych (1.52) v Florent Serra (2.75)

This is the third meeting between these two with Berdych winning their most recent meeting, on hard-courts this year, although both previous matches went to a third set.

Berdych is a former champion here and while his form is awful with nine defeats in his last 11 matches he remains a dangerous threat. Moreover, just one of those matches was against a player ranked outside the top 50 and he’s won 10 of 13 matches against players currently ranked 51-100 in the past 12 months.

While Berdych’s form is poor so is Serra’s, as his final set tie-break win in the opening round here was just his third Tour win in his last 12 matches. Moreover, the Frenchman has lost 19 of his last 23 matches against current top 25 ranked players with three of his four wins coming against Albert Montanes. Furthermore, he’s lost 10 of his last 11 matches when 2.4-3.8 to win.

Recommendation: Double on Berdych and Simon to win at 2.16, Sky Bet

 

Philipp Kohlschreiber (1.53) v Thomaz Belluci (2.65)

This is their fourth career meeting and all have happened this year with the German leading by two wins to one.

Kohlschreiber was a recent semi-finalist in Metz and has won seven of his last eight matches when a 1.4-1.7 favourite, with four straight-sets win. Furthermore, he’s won nine of his last 14 matches against players now ranked 26-50 as well as 13 of his last 14 matches against left-handers when the favourite.

Bellucci reached the final of a Challenger on clay in Brazil a couple of weeks ago but the standard was very low and he’s lost nine of his last 12 matches on Tour despite some limited opposition. The Brazilian has lost eight of his 12 hard-court matches against players now ranked 26-50, including four of the last five, and has also lost eight of his 10 hard-court matches when a 2.4-3.3 underdog with six defeats in straight sets.

Recommendation: Kohlschreiber to win 2-0 at 2.56, Betfair

 

Ernests Gulbis (2.5) v Mikhail Youzhny (1.6)

Gulbis won their most recent meeting in May to level their head-to-head at one win apiece. The Latvian snapped a four match losing streak in the first round but is a fine indoor player with eight of his nine Challenger titles coming on either carpet or indoor hard. Gulbis has won eight of his last 15 matches against players now ranked 10-25 and four of his last eight matches when 2.0-3.0 to win. Also, Gulbis has had a tie-break in six of his last 10 Tour matches.

Youzhny pulled out of Valencia last week with a back injury and is now unlikely to qualify for London unless he wins this week. While he reached the final in St Petersburg two weeks ago he was shorter than 1.4 in all his matches that week (including the finals defeat) and required three final sets, and lost his opening matches in his two preceding tournaments. The Russian has won five of seven matches when a 1.3-1.8 favourite since the US Open, but the only two matches not to go to a third set were the two defeats. Furthermore, the last five of these matches have all featured at least one tie-break (seven in 13 sets).

Recommendation: Split Stakes – Gulbis win at 2.7, Betfair

                                                              Over 22.5 games at 1.90, 10Bet

 

 
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