Michael Llodra (2.65) v Robin Soderling (1.54)
Llodra has won both their previous meetings, which have both been on indoor hard courts including in Marseille back in February.
Llodra avoided any drop in his play as he added Davydenko to his list of victims this week. Since 2008 the Frenchman has won seven of nine semi-finals, although this represents a far bigger stage than any of those matches. Llodra has won five of his nine matches against the current top 10 since 2009 including all four indoors, with seven of those matches featuring a first set tie-break.
Soderling has been in dominant form this week and will be appearing in his fourth Masters semi-final. The Swede has won 41 of 56 matches since April 2009 against players now ranked 11-50. Also, Soderling has been faced with a first set tie-break in nine of his last 18 indoor hard matches against players now ranked 11-50, including nine of 15 when excluding the opening two rounds of tournaments.
Recommendation: First set tie-break at 3.5, Ladbrokes
Roger Federer (1.2) v Gael Monfils (5.6)
Federer has won all five of their previous matches, including 12 of 13 sets contested. The world number two is on a 12 match winning streak and has won 30 of 33 matches since Wimbledon. Furthermore, he’s won his last 11 matches against current 11-15 ranked players for the loss of just two sets, and has won 34 of 43 career Masters semis including six of the last seven.
Monfils is bidding to return to the final of his home tournament after narrowly missing out on the title a year ago. The Frenchman has now won nine of his last 10 matches including a recent title in Montpellier. He’s also won six of his last nine semi-finals, although he was the underdog in just two of those matches. Although Monfils beat Nadal in January 2009 he’s since lost 12 of 15 matches against the current top 10, with two of his wins coming against Andy Roddick and the other being against Murray in the previous round, and seven of the losses were in straight sets.
Recommendation: Federer to win 2-0 at 1.62, Betfair