Tennis / Preview / Paris Masters Qf Preview

Paris Masters QF Preview

There are four quarter-finals today in Bercy and we preview all four matches including Andy Roddick's clash with Robin Soderling.

Robin Soderling


Andy Roddick (1.83) v Robin Soderling (2.14)

This is the fifth meeting between these two with each having won twice before. Roddick has won both their meetings this year, although both required a third set, while Soderling won both their previous indoor matches. Three of the four matches featured a tie-break while two had two breakers and all four matches had at least 22 games.

Roddick has looked in good touch this week and was a semi-finalist in Basel. The American number one has won 11 of 15 matches on hard courts against the current top 10 since Indian Wells last year with 11 of those matches having at least 23 games and eight going to a third set.

Soderling is also in good form and coming off a semi-final showing last week and furthermore has had most of his success indoors. However, the Swede has lost nine of 15 completed hard-court matches against current top 10 players back to this tournament a year ago, including six of the last seven. Also in this period, the Swede has played six matches where he’s been 1.9-2.5 to win and five have had at least 25 games and four have gone to a third set.

Recommendation: Split stakes – Over 24 games at 1.95, Boyles
                                                              Three sets at 2.3, Boyles

Nikolay Davydenko (1.8) v Michael Llodra (2.34)

Davydenko has won four of their previous five meetings, though Llodra did win their last encounter back in February 2008 on an indoor hard court.

Davydenko has been in terrible form since an injury back in February but looks to be playing better this week and is a former finalist here. Furthermore, he showed how dangerous he can be indoors when he won the Tour finals a year ago. Against players currently ranked 11-50 the Russian has actually lost seven of his last 11 matches, but those four wins did come in the seven such matches since the US Open. Moreover, he’s won 10 of 12 matches since 2009 when 1.6-2.0 to win.

Llodra was an impressive winner against Djokovic in the previous round and is having a very good year. However, he’s lost 10 of 16 completed matches against players now ranked 11-25 since 2009 and this is his first Masters level quarter-final.

While there is evidence to suggest Davydenko’s form has turned the corner and the value lies with him this tournament has a history of upsets and since 1990 there have been seven quarter-finals where a non-seed that knocked out a top-four seed in the previous round has played a seed and they’ve won on five occasions.

Recommendation: No Bet

Roger Federer (1.12) v Jurgen Melzer (9)

Federer has beaten Melzer in straight sets twice this year, at Wimbledon and then in the US Open. This tournament has not been kind to the Swiss in the past but given his recent form of 11 consecutive wins and finals in five of his last six tournaments he’s rightfully a massive favourite here. Furthermore, the Swiss Maestro has won the first set in 28 of his 30 matches since Wimbledon, with Andy Murray the only man to stop him, and he’s also claimed the first set 6/3 in eight of his last 24 matches when shorter than 1.2 to win.

Melzer has been greater than 4.0 to win on 12 occasions this year and has won an impressive five times. However, in 11 of those matches he’s received serve at the start, which coupled with Federer’s usual preference for serving first should mean the 6/3 first set score to Federer immediately becomes more appealing than the 6/4, and indeed that’s exactly what’s happened in both their previous meetings. Since Wimbledon 2009 Melzer has played 13 matches against the current top 10 and has lost the first set 6/3 on six separate occasions.

Recommendation: 1st Set Correct Score – 6/3 Federer at 4.5, Paddy Power


Andy Murray (1.42) v Gael Monfils (3.05)

Murray has a commanding lead in the head-to-head records between these two having won three of their four previous matches, including their most recent encounter, and with the Frenchman’s only victory coming in five sets at the French Open.

Murray has won 13 of 15 Masters level hard-court matches since 2009 against players currently ranked 11-25, with nine wins in straight sets. Furthermore, since 2008 he’s won nine of 12 Masters quarter-finals on hard courts, with seven 2-0 wins.

Monfils was below his best against Verdasco, despite winning, and the Frenchman has lost his last nine matches against the current top six with six straight-set defeats.

However, again we see that top-four seeds have a terrible record in this event in quarter-final matches against other seeds, as they’ve lost 14 of 22 such matches since 1990.

Recommendation: No Bet

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