Football / Preview / Topline 27 02 2010

Topline (27/02/2010)

On the back of three successive profitable weeks, Topline returns with 18 selections including a recommendation in the Old Firm derby on Sunday.

Ajax's Luis Suarez

 

Serie B: Grosseto v Crotone (Sat, 13:00) - Result: 0-4

Over/Under: Grosseto have had three or more goals in 11 of their 13 home matches this season and are unbeaten in 12 at home with eight wins. Moreover, 76% of their 34 away games since the start of last season have had over-goals including 10 of 12 hosting middle-third teams of which Grosseto won 11. Crotone have had +2.5 goals in five of their last eight away matches, and have lost three of their last four away matches with their last seven defeats overall all featuring at least three goals.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.14, Betfair

 

Bundesliga: Mainz v Werder Bremen (Sat, 14:30) - Result: 1-2

DNB: Mainz are unbeaten at home this season with seven wins from 11 games including a win over Bayern. Bremen have lost three of their last four away games and while they’ve been improved on the road this season they’re winless away against teams placed 5th-11th since 2007/08 with four draws and 11 defeats. Furthermore they’ve won only one of their last six trips to promoted teams.

Recommendation: Mainz Win DNB 3.20, Betfair

 

Premier League: Birmingham v Wigan (Sat, 15:00) - Result: 1-0

Match outcome/Correct score: Birmingham are unbeaten in nine home games with five wins, and have won five of their seven home games against bottom-half teams this season, although all of their victories have been by a single score. Wigan have lost 61% of their away matches since 2007/08 including eight of the last 12. Furthermore, they’ve lost four of their last seven trips to middle-third sides whilst winning only once and their last two defeats were by the 2-1 score line. Since 2004/05 in home games 11-19 middle-third promoted teams have won 13 of 25 home matches against bottom-half teams (W13-D7-L5).

Recommendation: 0.75pt stake: Birmingham Win 2.00, Betfred
                                   0.25pt stake: Birmingham to win 2-1 10.0, Betfair

 

Championship: Middlesbrough v QPR (Sat, 15:00) - Result: 2-0 (HT 2-0)

HT/FT: Middlesbrough are unbeaten in five at home and have won five of their seven home games against bottom-half teams, with all five by the W/W double. Moreover, 11 of their 12 wins this season have been W/W doubles. QPR got their first win under Mick Harford last weekend to end a run of five consecutive defeats. However, they’ve taken just two points from their last eight away matches and have trailed at half-time in their last five away. Moreover, QPR have failed to win any of their last 14 away matches against teams placed 6th-12th losing eight times.

Recommendation: Middlesbrough W/W 2.75, Boyle Sports

 

Serie B: Empoli v Modena (Sat, 15:15) - Result: 3-0

Asian handicap: Empoli have the best home record in the league this season and are unbeaten in 17 at home with 13 wins. Of these victories nine have been by two or more goals, while they’ve won 12 of their last 15 hosting top-half teams with eight wins by two clear goals. Modena have not scored in four away matches and have lost seven of their last 15 away with four defeats by two or more goals. Since 2004/05 all-top-half clashes where the home team has won their last home match and the away side has not won in five away games have been won by the home team on 11 of 18 occasions (W11-D5-L2).

Recommendation: Empoli -1 2.78, Betfair

 

Serie A: Catania v Bari (Sat, 17:00) - Result: 4-0

Match outcome: Cagliari have been beaten in just one of their last six league fixtures. The hosts have won 12 of their last 16 home matches against middle-third sides and 10 of the victories have been W/W doubles. Bari have gained just one point from their last seven away fixtures and they have been beaten in both of their trips to bottom-six teams this term.

Recommendation: Catania Win 2.20, Various

 

La Liga: Getafe v Zaragoza (Sat, 17:00) - Result: 0-2 ((HT 0-2)

HT/FT: Getafe come into this match in good form. They are undefeated in six home matches with four victories and three W/Ws and they have also won four of their last six games hosting bottom-six opposition (three W/Ws). Zaragoza have gained four points from their last two away days, although both games were against fellow bottom-six clubs. Prior to them, the La Liga new-boys had been beaten in eight of 10 winless away fixtures with eight half-time losses.

Recommendation: Getafe W/W 3.30, Betfair

 

Super League: Xanthi v PAOK (Sat, 17:00) - Result: 0-3 (HT 0-2)

HT score: Xanthi have trailed at half-time in half their 12 home games this season and 12 of their 13 half-time losses at home since 2007/08 have been 1-0 at the break. Moreover they’ve trailed 1-0 at half-time in five of their 12 home games against top-six sides since 2007/08 (HT W3-D3-L6) as they’ve failed to score in nine of the 12 first halves. PAOK are unbeaten this season excluding the Big Three (W13-D5-L0) and are unbeaten in their last 11 against all teams with nine wins (HT W6-D5-L0). Moreover, they’ve not conceded a first half goal in their last 15 matches with seven 1-0s and seven 0-0s at half-time. They’ve also lead 1-0 in five of their last eight away matches with the other three goalless at the break, while against bottom-half teams they’re unbeaten away since 2008/09 (FT W6-D5-L0) and have lead 1-0 at half-time in six of the last eight.

Recommendation: HT score 0-1 4.00, Bet365

 

Segunda: Levante v Las Palmas (Sat, 17:00) - Result: 1-1 (HT 1-1)

HT/FT: Levante are in excellent form having gone eight matches unbeaten with four wins in the last five. Moreover, they’ve won 14 of their last 21 home games including each of their last four (three D/Ws), and have won nine of their 16 home games against bottom-half teams since 2008/09. Las Palmas have lost six of their last 11 away games, with seven HT draws, as well as half their 16 trips to top-half teams since the start of last season (nine HT draws) and have taken just two points from their last six trips to top-six sides (five HT draws). Since 2004/05, teams on a four-game home winning streak have won 20 of 28 (71%) home matches against bottom-half sides (W20-D4-L4) including 10 of the last 11.

Recommendation: Levante D/W 5.40, Betfair

 

Segunda: Hercules v Celta Vigo (Sat, 17:00) - Result: 1-0 (HT 0-0)

HT/FT: Hercules have won 19 of their last 23 home matches with 12 wins by two or more goals and 10 W/Ws. Moreover, they’ve won 12 of their last 16 home matches against bottom-half teams with eight wins by two clear goals and six W/Ws. Celta Vigo have lost five of their last nine trips to top-six teams with L/Ls. Since the start of last season top-three teams have won 14 of 16 home matches in the final 10 home games of the season against teams placed 12th-20th.

Recommendation: Hercules W/W 3.00, Betfair

 

Ligue 1: Nancy v Grenoble (Sat, 18:00) - Result: 0-2

Win to nil: Nancy have kept five clean sheets in their last eight home games against bottom-half teams as they’ve won four times and lost only once (four wins to-nil). Furthermore they’ve scored in the first half in three of their last four matches overall. Grenoble have lost 10 of 12 away games this season with nine L/Ls and nine defeats to-nil. Moreover, they’ve lost five of their last six trips to middle-third teams with five defeats to-nil and four L/Ls.

Recommendation: Nancy Win to nil 2.62, Paddy Power

 

Ligue 1: Toulouse v Lens (Sat, 18:00) - Result: 1-0 (HT 0-0)

HT score: Toulouse have drawn the first half in 66% of their 50 home matches since 2007/08, including nine of 12 this season, with 26 half-time 0-0s. Moreover, they’ve been level at the break in 14 of 18 home matches against middle-third sides since 2007/08 with 10 0-0s. Lens have had just one goal before half-time in their last five away matches and it has been goalless at the interval in each of their last three trips to middle-third sides.

Recommendation: HT score 0-0 2.40, Bet365/Bwin

 

Ligue 1: Valenciennes v St Etienne (Sat, 18:00) - Result: 1-0

Match outcome: Valenciennes have won four of their last 10 home matches while losing only once and since 2007/08 they’ve won 10 of 21 home games against bottom-half teams (W10-D7-L4). St Etienne have lost five of their last six away matches – only beating Grenoble – and since the start of last season have lost 10 of 13 away games against teams placed 5th-11th including eight defeats to-nil.

Recommendation: Valenciennes Win 2.27, SBOBET

 

Super Liga: Sporting Braga v Olhanense (Sat, 19:15) - Result: 3-1

HT/FT: Braga had conceded just eight league goals all season prior to their 5-1 defeat at Porto last weekend. The hosts do, however, have their incredible home record intact; they have won nine of their 10 such games this term, but they have been tied at the break on five occasions. Furthermore, they have won 1-0 or 2-0 in all of their last six games hosting bottom-six sides. Promoted Olhanense have drawn the first half of all of their nine away fixtures this term and, although they have only been beaten on three occasions, all of the defeats came against top-six placed teams.  

Recommendation: Split Stakes: Sporting Braga to win 1-0 7.00, Various
                                                            Sporting Braga to win 2-0 6.50, Betfred

 

Eredivisie: Ajax v Utrecht (Sun, 11:30) - Result: 4-0

Asian handicap: Ajax’s terrific run of form continued with their 4-0 thrashing of Vitesse last weekend. The hosts have now won all of their last 10 home fixtures and nine of the victories have been by three clear goals. Additionally, they have been successful in eight of their last 10 games hosting top-six opposition with five wins by three or more scores. Utrecht have won just one of their last nine on the road with three defeats by two clear goals. The visitors have also failed to win with the +1.5 goal handicap in five of their last seven trips to either of the Big Two.

Recommendation: Ajax Win -2 2.40, Betfair

 

SPL: Rangers v Celtic (Sun, 12:30) - Result: 1-0

Asian handicap: Rangers have been running away with the league this season and this represents a must-win game for Celtic. Rangers have won seven of their last eight home games and five of their last six matches hosting Celtic. Celtic are having a poor season and have lost four of their last 10 away matches. Moreover, they’ve won only four and lost five of their last 13 trips to top-half teams.

Recommendation: Rangers Win -0.25 2.04, Ladbrokes

 

Premier League: Liverpool v Blackburn (Sun, 15:00) - Result: 2-1

Asian handicap: Liverpool have conceded just two goals in their last nine matches and have won their last five home matches, while seven of their nine home wins this season have come to-nil. Moreover, since 2007/08 they’ve won 20 of 24 home matches against middle-third teams (W20-D4-L0) with 12 victories by two clear goals and seven by three or more. Blackburn have won four of their last six matches but have lost nine of 13 away games this season and have lost 13 of 15 winless trips to Big Four sides with 12 defeats by two clear goals and seven by three or more.

Recommendation: Liverpool Win -2 2.79, Bet365

 

La Liga: Sevilla v Ath Bilbao (Sun, 18:00) - Result: 0-0

Asian handicap: Sevilla have recorded W/Ws in all of their last three home matches and they have also been successful in eight of their last 10 games hosting top-half non-Big Two sides with five W/Ws and four victories by two clear goals. The hosts have defeated the -1.5 goal handicap in three of their last five home matches when they have been on similar current five-game home form (nine points). Bilbao have gained just one point from their last five on the road and they have been beaten by two or more goals in eight of their last 10 trips to top-six sides.

Recommendation: Sevilla Win -1 2.10, Bet365


















 

 
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