Football / Preview / Fa Cup Fifth Round Replays

FA Cup: Fifth Round Replays

Analysis of the four FA Cup Fifth Round Replays taking place this Wednesday, including Man City's trip to the Brittania Stadium.

Stoke v Man City


All Premier League ties:- Stoke v Man City, Spurs v Bolton

Home teams in fifth round replays have enjoyed no significant advantage in top-flight matches – W6-D6-L4 – with an equal normal of losses in those that went to extra-time. Those results are a fair reflection for any all Premier League replay and the only difference for higher ranked teams, as Spurs will be, is that they’ve lost very few in normal time – only three of 25 with wins in 12. Three of the 10 all square at 90 minutes have gone to penalties with all three won by the away side. Six of the seven matches settled before a shoot out have been won by the hosts.

The only other point of interest is that lower ranked away teams have been level at half-time in 17/25 replays compared to 15/33 when they’ve been the hosts. Lower ranked home sides, as Stoke are, have a W9-D10-L14 record and have won only 2/10 in the additional thirty minutes but 4/5 that have been settled by penalties.

Stoke (3.25) have failed to win any of the three replays they’ve played at home in the Premier league era, two of which were all Championship clashes. Man City (2.5) have a 100% record in replays having won 10/10 of which four were on the road but only two against top flight opposition. A feature of those City replays is that only two were all square at half-time and eight have had three or more goals.

Spurs (1.44) have entertained six top flight teams in replays (W3-D1-L2), the most recent of which was three years ago when they lost to Chelsea. Their record in any home match against Premier League teams is a patchy W6-D5-L3, but an undefeated one when ranked higher than their opponents – W4-D5.  Bolton (9) have yet to beat a top-flight team away in the eight ties they’ve played since shocking Liverpool as a League One side back in 1993. Although, they lost at White Hart Lane eight years ago, they have drawn three of the four they’ve played since and been level at the break in all four.


Premier League v Championship:- Aston Villa v Crystal Place

Although Aston Villa will be focused on the Sunday’s Carling Cup Final, they should progress as Premier League sides have a W6-D2-L1 record in fifth round replays and a W34-D12-L7 in any replay. However, top flight teams have won only five of the 12 that went to extra time which includes one of the two settled by penalties. In 74% of the 53 ties, the full-time result has matched that at the break. 50% of the Premier League wins have been by two or more goals and 76% of the victories by the W/W double result.   

In such match-ups, Aston Villa (1.4) have won both their replays which includes a win against Doncaster last year. This is only the fifth time they’ve hosted a Championship side (W3-D1) and they’ve led at the break in all four. As a Championship team, Crystal Palace (9.5) have won just once when visiting a Premier League team – W1-D2-L4 – but they have accounted for one top flight side this year when they drew at Molineux before winning at Selhurst Park.


Championship v Championship:- West Brom v Reading

Championship teams have met in fifth round replays only twice before (both won by the home team) and in any replay featuring two teams from this division, the home team have a W12-D8-L9 record with two defeats in the eight requiring extra-time and a 3/4 success rate if settled by penalties. Home teams favoured by the rankings have a strong W10-D5-L3 record with wins in 3/5 that went the full distance.  

In same division ties, West Brom (1.75) have yet to lose at home in the Premier League era but three of the six have been draws including the only one that was a replay (they won on penalties). Reading (5) have never travelled for a same division replay (they’ve lost 3/4 played at home) and their record when visiting teams of a similar status is W0-D4-L3. The four draws have all been since 2003 and they’ve been all square at the break in six of the seven visits.


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