Football / Preview / Topline 06 03 2010

Topline (06/03/2010)

This week's Topline produced a small 2% loss on 15 recommendations as league-leaders Inter Milan and Bordeaux failed to deliver.

Everton's Mikel Arteta



Super Lig: Kasimpasa v Kayserispor (Sat, 12:00) - Result: 2-2

Over/Under: Both of these sides come into this match in good form. Nine of promoted Kasimpasa’s 10 home matches this term have seen at least three goals while eight have featured four or more. 59% (10/17) of Kayserispor’s away matches since the start of last season when they have conceded have settled the +2.5 goals market since the start of last season.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.75, Various


Super League: Kavala v Aris Salonika (Sat, 14:45) - Result: 1-1

Asian handicap: Kavala have won their last four matches and are unbeaten at home since the first day of the season with six wins in 10 matches. Moreover, they’re unbeaten in their last five home games against top-half teams with two wins and three draws. Aris have lost their last two away games and eight of their last 13 away against top-half teams (W1-D4-L8). Furthermore, top-half promoted teams have won 12 and lost only five of 29 home games against top-half teams since 2004/05 (W12-D12-L5).

Recommendation: Kavala Win -0.25 2.19, Bet365


Premier League: Arsenal v Burnley (Sat, 15:00) - Result: 3-1

Asian handicap: Arsenal are right back in the title race and have won 10 of their last 11 at home against bottom-half teams with all their wins by two-clear goals and six by three or more. Since 2006/07 Arsenal have won by three or more goals in seven of their 11 home matches against bottom-three finishers and teams presently in the bottom three this term. Moreover, they’ve also won both halves in four of their last five home matches against bottom-six sides. Burnley have lost 13 of 14 away and seven of eight overall including at home against Portsmouth last weekend. Moreover they’ve lost six of seven away at top-half teams whilst conceding three or more goals every time and all six defeats being by three or more goals.

Recommendation: Arsenal Win -2.5 2.28, SBOBET


Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund v Borussia M’gladbach (Sat, 17:30) - Result: 3-0 (HT 1-0)

HT/FT: Dortmund have won six of their last eight home games with five W/Ws and have won 11 of their last 12 home matches against bottom-half teams with eight W/Ws. M’gladbach have lost seven of their last 11 away as well as 11 of their 13 trips to top-half teams since the start of last season with nine L/Ls. Since 2004/05, top-six teams hosting teams placed 10th-14th in the final eight home games of the season have won 67% (50/75) matches with 45% W/Ws.

Recommendation: Borussia Dortmund W/W 2.90, Betfair


Eredivisie: Groningen v VVV-Venlo (Sun, 13:30) - Result: 1-0 (HT 0-0)

HT/FT: Groningen have lost just one of their last seven home fixtures which has included four W/Ws and three clean sheets. Additionally, they have recorded W/Ws in half (7/14) of their home matches against middle-third sides since 2007/08 with six wins-to-nil. Promoted VVV-Venlo have suffered defeat in all of their last seven away fixtures and six of the losses were to nil and five were L/Ls.

Recommendation: Groningen W/W 2.62, Betfair


Serie A: Cagliari v Catania (Sun, 14:00) - Result: 2-2

Asian handicap: Cagliari remain undefeated in 10 home fixtures with seven victories. Additionally, they have gained full points from 16 of their last 22 (73%) games hosting bottom-half sides, losing just twice with 10 W/Ws. Catania, meanwhile, have won only three away fixtures since the start of last season with 19 losses (59%). Further, they have beaten in 10 of their last 13 trips to top-half non-Big Four sides, five of which were to nil.

Recommendation: Cagliari Win -1 2.96, Bet365


Serie A: Palermo v Livorno (Sun, 14:00) - Result: 1-0 (HT 0-0)

HT/FT: Palermo recorded a 2-0 victory at Juventus last weekend to catapult themselves into fourth position in the table. Incredibly, the hosts remain unbeaten in 19 home matches with 14 victories and eight W/Ws. Moreover, they have gained full-points from 10 of their last 11 home fixtures against bottom-six teams with six W/Ws. Promoted Livorno look likely to make an immediate return to Serie B. The visitors have been defeated in two-thirds (8/12) of their away fixtures this term which has included six L/L doubles.

Recommendation: Palermo W/W 2.50, Betfair


Bundesliga: Nurnberg v Bayer Leverkusen (Sun, 14:30) - Result: 3-2 (HT 2-0)

HT outcome, HT/FT: Nurnberg have only beaten Hannover in their last 11 games whilst suffering seven defeats and they’ve lost six of 11 home matches this season with five L/Ls. Leverkusen are unbeaten this season but have drawn too many matches. While they’ve won only four of 12 away matches they’ve led at half-time in half of them and they’ve won five of their last six trips to promoted teams with four W/Ws.

Recommendation: Split Stakes: 0.75 pt Leverkusen HT Win 2.42, Betfair
                                                            0.25 pt Nuremburg L/D 20.0, Betfair


Premier League: Everton v Hull (Sun, 16:00) - Result: 5-1

Asian handicap: Everton have been one of the best teams in the league since the start of the year and have won their last five home games, including three against the top five, with four wins by at least two goals. Moreover, they’re unbeaten in their last 11 home games against bottom-half teams with nine wins, including seven wins by two-clear goals and six W/Ws. Hull have trailed at half-time in 10 of their last 11 away games as they’ve suffered eight L/Ls and seven defeats by two clear goals. Moreover, they’ve lost six of their last nine trips to top-half non-Big Four teams.

Recommendation: Everton Win -1.5 2.14, SBOBET


La Liga: Mallorca v Gijon (Sun, 16:00) - Result: 3-0

Asian handicap: Mallorca had won 10 consecutive home matches before they succumbed to Sevilla last time out. The hosts have defeated the -1.5 goal handicap in 11 of their last 27 home games and also in seven of their last eight home matches against middle-third sides (FT W8-D0-L0). Gijon have lost four of their last five on the road with three defeats by two clear goals. Additionally, they have failed to win with the +1.5 goal handicap in three of their last seven games at top-six sides.

Recommendation: Mallorca Win -1 2.36, Bet365


Super Liga: Maritimo v Academica (Sun, 16:00) - Result: 0-0

Both teams to score: Seven of Maritimo’s last 13 home fixtures have seen at least three goals (four +3.5 goals) while both teams have netted in nine of their 15 home games against bottom-six clubs since 2007/08. Likewise, six of Academica’s last seven away fixtures have seen both teams score as have eight of their last nine trips to middle-third teams.

Recommendation: Both teams to score 2.20, Betfair


Segunda: Real Sociedad v Numancia (Sun, 16:00) - Result: 2-1 (HT 1-1)

Highest scoring half: Sociedad have had most goals after half-time in 56% of their 55 home matches since the start of 2007/08 including six of 10 games hosting top-six sides. Numancia have had most goals in the second half in eight of their 12 away games this season as they’ve scored just one first half goal on the road. Moreover, five of their six trips to top-half teams have finished with most goals in the second half as they’ve been goalless at half-time on four occasions.

Recommendation: Highest scoring half = Second 2.37, Bet Internet


La Liga: Ath. Bilbao v Valladolid (Sun, 18:00) - Result: 2-0 (HT 2-0)

HT/FT: Athletic Bilbao have won all of their last four home matches with three W/Ws, which included a 1-0 victory over Real Madrid. Impressively, they are undefeated in 17 games hosting bottom-six sides and they have won all of their last five such games with four W/Ws. Valladolid are winless in nine on the road with four L/Ls. They have also seen L/Ls in four of their last eight games at top-half non-Big Two teams.

Recommendation: Ath Bilbao W/W 3.00, Betfair


Serie A: Inter v Genoa (Sun, 19:45) - Result 0-0

HT/FT: Inter Milan have won five of their last six home matches with five clean sheets and three W/Ws. Additionally, they have been successful in six of their last seven games hosting middle-third opposition with six victories by two clear goals and four W/Ws. Genoa have picked up only two points in their last eight on the road with four L/Ls. Further, they have seen L/Ls in seven of 11 winless trips to Big Four sides (W0-D2-L9).

Recommendation: Inter W/W 2.20, Betfair


Ligue 1: Bordeaux v Montpellier (Sun, 20:00) - Result: 1-1

HT/FT: Bordeaux haven’t played for a few weeks after a couple of postponements but have an enviable recent record at home against top-six teams having won eight of their last 10 such matches without defeat and with six W/Ws. Moreover, seven of their last eight home wins (11 games) have been W/W doubles and they’ve lost only one of their last 45 home matches with 34 wins. Montpellier have lost five times on the road this season with four L/Ls, and have lost four of their seven trips to teams presently in the top half (W1-D2-L4) with all four defeats L/L doubles.

Recommendation: Bordeaux W/W 2.50, Various


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