Football / Preview / Fa Cup Quarter Finals

FA Cup: Quarter-Finals

In-depth anaylsis of all of this weekend's FA Cup quarter-final clashes including Chelsea v Stoke at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea v Stoke


All Premier League ties

What is surprising about the quarter-finals is that in the Premier League era the away team have won the greatest number of games – 28 of the 68 (excluding replays) compared to 25 won by the hosts. That success rate is also applicable to all Premier League ties in which the home team’s record is W13-D10-L16 with a higher than league average of 54% for +2.5 goals.

Higher ranked teams, as Chelsea are, have a W12-D6-L6 record with wins in 6/7 when they been they’ve been the dominant team (ranked 50+). Lower ranked home teams, like Fulham and Portsmouth, have struggled to make the semi-finals, having won only one of the 15 played with four requiring a replay. The dominant team have won nine of the first halves and a similar number have been won to nil.


Fulham (Bettorlogic ranking 45) v Tottenham (39)

If Fulham (3.0) are victorious then it will the first time in seven all London quarter-finals that the home team have won at the first time of asking –D4-L2. Spurs drew at Stamford Bridge three years ago in the most recent of their travelling sixth round ties – W1-D1-L4. At any stage of the competition travelling to lower ranked Premier league sides, Spurs (2.5) have a W3-D4-L3 record but have lost two of their last three which includes a 4-0 drubbing three years ago in the fifth round at Craven Cottage. Whilst that win is only one of two for the Cottagers in five all Prem home ties, they did beat Man Utd 4-0 in the sixth round last year.


Portsmouth (127) v Birmingham (116)

Now that Premier League survival would appear to be beyond them, the Cup represents Portsmouth’s (2.63) only chance of redemption and considering the success of two years ago was a primary source for their current ills, it would be somewhat ironic if they repeated the feat. The 2008 run to Wembley involved an away win in the sixth round when they squeezed past Man Utd and is one of four from nine all Premier League matches that they’ve won (3/5 at home). Six of those nine matches, which include four defeats, have had three or more goals with both teams scoring in seven. Birmingham’s (2.8) away form at Premier League grounds is dominated by defeat (W3-D1-L7) but only three were from a position of divisional parity and they did win earlier this year at Goodison Park.


Chelsea (3) v Stoke (102)

What is perhaps surprising about Chelsea (1.3) in the quarter-finals is that they’ve won only one of the five played at Stamford Bridge. Their home record against Premier League sides at any stage of the competition is W6-D6-L3 and a more convincing W5-D4 as the higher ranked team with victory in 4/5 played in the Abramovich era. All four of those by the W/W double result. This is the first time Stoke (12) have made it to the quarter-finals in the Premier League era and only their fifth away tie to a team from the same division. Three of the four have been drawn, most notably earlier in this campaign at Man City.


Championship v Premier League:- Reading (315) v Aston Villa (37)

Championship teams at home have progressed to the semi-finals at the first time of asking on only four of the 21 occasions with another four requiring a replay. 15 of the 21 matches have had fewer than three goals and 10 less than two with the home team failing to score in six of the last 10.

Although this is a first quarter-final for Reading (4.3), they’ll be aware that two years ago, both Championship v Premier League quarter-finals  were won by the lower division team with Cardiff winning at the Riverside and Barnsley beating Chelsea at home. This is Reading’s fourth tie at the Madejski against a team from the higher division and they’ve yet to be defeated, drawing with Birmingham four years ago, Liverpool this season and beating Burnley in round four.

 It’s ten years since Aston Villa (1.85) were last in the quarter-finals when they won away at Goodison Park. Their record at any stage of the competition at Championship grounds is pretty exemplary – W6-D3-L2 – but they were held to a draw by Crystal Place this year and Doncaster last.     


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