Football / Preview / Topline 27 11 2010

Topline (27/11/2010)

This week's Topline contains 15 recommendations spread across Friday-Sunday and includes a pick in Atletico Madrid v Espanyol on Sunday evening.

Atletico Madrid's Kun Aguero


Romania: Uni Urziceni v Studentesc (Fri, 16:00)

Urziceni have finished in the top two for the past two seasons and while they’re 17th in the table this term they’ve still won 3/8 home games despite not facing a team currently in the bottom seven. Moreover, they’ve won 12/13 home games against bottom-six teams. Studentesc have lost all eight away games since their promotion as well as 8/9 home and away.

Recommendation: Unirea Win 1.91, Ladbrokes


Championship: Swansea v Portsmouth (Fri, 19:45)

All of Swansea’s last six home matches have had fewer than three goals while five of their nine this season have contained at most one score. Portsmouth have been extremely inconsistent so far. They lost their opening four away games, three of which were to nil, then gained seven points in their next three away fixtures before slipping to two consecutive away defeats to nil in their last two games. Since 2009/10, Swansea have kept clean sheets in 22/32 home fixtures and they have prevented their opponents netting in 13/16 games hosting bottom-half opposition.

Recommendation: Swansea Win to nil 2.80, Paddy Power


Argentina: Arsenal Sarandi v San Lorenzo (Sat, 00:15)

Arsenal Sarandi have kept clean sheets in 6/7 home matches while San Lorenzo have lost-to-nil in 4/4 away fixtures with three L/L doubles. Since the start of last season, the hosts have won to nil in 6/15 home games against middle-third opposition and they have kept clean sheets in four of their six such fixtures this season.

Recommendation: Arsenal Sarandi Win to nil 3.20, Bwin


Bundesliga: Hannover v Freiburg (Sat, 14:30)

There have been at least three goals in 14/16 Hannover home matches with 10 having at least four as they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those games. Moreover, there have been +3.5 goals in 5/7 Hannover home games against top-half non-Big Three teams and +2.5 goals in four of their final five trips to middle-third finishers last term. Freiburg have had +2.5 goals in 6/8 away matches and in 4/7 trips to top-half non-Big Three teams since the start of last season.

Recommendation: +3.0 goals 2.44, 10Bet


Championship: Crystal Palace v Doncaster (Sat, 15:00)

Crystal Palace have finally moved off the bottom of the Championship thanks to successive home victories. 6/9 of Palace’s home fixtures this season have had +2.5 goals and they have kept just two clean sheets. Doncaster, meanwhile, have netted in all of their last five away fixtures (scoring three goals on three occasions) and 7/9 of their away games this term have had +2.5 goals (5/9 +3.5 goals).

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 1.91, William Hill


Ukraine: Metalist Kharkiv v M Donetsk (Sat, 16:00)

All of Metalist Kharkiv’s home matches this season have had +2.5 goals while five have had +3.5 goals. M Donetsk have netted in 8/9 away fixtures but they have kept just one clean sheet in that spell (five +2.5 goals). Since the start of last season, 10/13 of the hosts home games against bottom-half sides have had +2.5 goals (seven +3.5 goals) as have 5/9 of M Donetsk’s trips to top-six teams.

Recommendation: Split Stakes: +2.5 goals 1.85, Bwin
                                                            +3.5 goals 3.20, Victor Chandler


Segunda: Huesca v Elche (Sat, 17:00)

Huesca haven’t been the most exciting team to watch this season. They have scored just one goal in their six home matches while conceding just three goals. The hosts have been goalless at HT in all six games and four of the matches have ended with the same scoreline. Elche are yet to score in the opening half of any of their six away fixtures and four of the games have been 0-0 at the break. Over a longer period, Huesca have drawn the first half of 8/12 home matches against middle-third sides while Elche have been tied at the interval in 9/16 trips to bottom-half sides.

Recommendation: HT draw 2.00, Stan James/Unibet


La Liga: Real Zaragoza v Villarreal (Sat, 17:00)

Four of Real Zaragoza’s six home matches this season have had +2.5 goals and three of the games have seen at least four scores. Similarly, 7/9 of their home fixtures against top-half non-Big Two sides have had +2.5 goals. Villarreal continue to impress this season, but their away form hasn’t matched their home. The main reason has been their concession rate. The visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their six on the road but they have scored in five of the games. 5/8 of their away matches against bottom-six sides have had +2.5 goals.

Recommendation: +3.0 goals 2.30, Bet365


Austria: Mattersburg v Sturm Graz (Sat, 17:30)

Mattersburg are struggling this season. They have lost 5/8 home matches with four defeats by two or more goals while their opponents Sturm Graz have exactly the opposite record on the road. They have won 5/8 of their away fixtures and four of their victories have been by two clear goals. The hosts have failed to net in seven head-to-head fixtures against Sturm and they have been beaten in 8/11 home games against top-half teams. Sturm have won 9/15 away games against bottom-half sides and they have scored in the first half of 7/8 matches generally.

Recommendation: Sturm Graz Win -1 2.38, Bet365


Romania: D Bucharesti v FC Timisoara (Sat, 19:45)

Dinamo Bucharesti have provided a lot of entertainment this season. Both sides have netted in all of their eight home games and each of the matches have had +2.5 goals (five +3.5 goals and four +4.5 goals). Timisoara are playing well and currently sit in second in the table. They have netted in 7/8 on the road but they have conceded in six of the games. Three of their last four away matches against top-six sides have had +2.5 goals.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.80, Bwin


Greece: PAOK v Atromitos (Sun, 15:15)

PAOK have lead at half-time in 15/32 home games including nine W/Ws in the last 17. Moreover, they’ve won 15/17 home games against bottom-half teams since 2008/09 with W/Ws in five of the last eight such matches. Atromitos have trailed at the break in 10/20 away games since their promotion including in six of the last nine with five L/Ls.

Recommendation: PAOK W/W 2.40, Victor Chandler


La Liga: Ath Bilbao v Osasuna (Sun, 16:00)

Bilbao have won 14/17 home games since the start of last season excluding against top-six finishers and current top-six teams with 13 W/Ws, including five in their last six hosting middle-third sides. Osasuna have taken just one point from their last 14 away games while failing to score 10 times and suffering four L/Ls in their last five road games.

Recommendation: Ath. Bilbao W/W 2.90, Bwin


Denmark: Brondby v Odense (Sun, 17:00)

Brondby haven’t kept a clean sheet in seven home games with three having at least four goals and all of their last five matches having had +2.5 goals. Furthermore, there have been +2.5 goals in 8/12 Brondby home matches against top-half teams with four or more goals in seven. Odense have had at least three goals in 12/16 away matches including in each their last seven (five +3.5 goals). Moreover, they’ve had +2.5 goals in 7/10 trips to top-half teams since the start of last season with a fourth goal in half the matches.

Recommendation: +2.5 gls at 1.93, Bet365


Portugal: Naval v Rio Ave (Sun, 16:00)

There have been fewer than two goals in 12/20 Naval home games since the start of last season including in 7/9 matches hosting bottom-half teams and they are the second lowest scorers in the league this season. Rio Ave have had -1.5 goals in half their 20 away games since 2009/10 as well as in 10/16 trips to bottom-six sides since 2008/09. Furthermore, three of their four meetings since 2008/09 have had -2.5 goals with two having either one or no goals.

Recommendation: -1.5 goals 2.70, Sportingbet


Atletico Madrid v Espanyol (Sun, 21:00)

Atletico Madrid have won 4/5 home games excluding against the Big Two and they’ve won 14/17 home matches against top-half non-Big Two teams with nine W/Ws and nine wins by at least two goals. Espanyol have lost 15/21 away games including 4/6 this season – three of which were by at least three goals. Moreover, they’ve lost 8/9 trips to top-eight non-Big Two teams since 2008/09 with four L/Ls, six defeats without scoring and three defeats by two-clear goals.

Recommendation: Atletico Madrid -1 2.19, 10Bet

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