Group E: Basel (Bettorlogic rank 65) v CFR Cluj (164) (Tues, 19:45)
Both of these teams have gained just three points from their opening four games but such has been Bayern’s dominance so far that either could still qualify. As such, both teams should be gunning for a victory here. Basel are on a terrible run of five successive home defeats in this competition, but four of their opponents were in the top-25 and none were anywhere near as poor as Cluj. Interestingly, the hosts have never played a team lower-ranked than themselves at home. Eight of their 11 home matches since 2002/03 have had +2.5 goals while five have seen at least four scores. CFR Cluj have lost 6/7 Champions League matches – the other game was their 2-1 win in the reverse of this fixture – and all of the seven games have featured at least three goals while three have had +3.5 goals. The visitors netted twice at Bayern at once at Roma despite losing both games.
Recommendation: +3.0 goals 2.13, Canbet
Group E: Roma (15) v Bayern Munich (7) (Tues, 19:45)
Roma have a strong home record in group stage matches. They have won 7/11 since 2006/07, although they were embarrassed by lowly-ranked CFR Cluj in their last such game. Within this sample they have won 2/3 unbeaten games home games against teams with a Bettorlogic rank of 1-20. Bayern bring a 100% record into this match and if they avoid a three-goal defeat they will be assured of top-spot in Group E and a favourable draw in the first knockout stage. While they have been below-par domestically this term they continue to flourish on the European stage. The visitors have won 8/11 away group stage matches and they have scored in all of their last 15 such games.
Recommendation: No bet
Group F: Spartak Moscow (63) v Marseille (19) (Tues, 17:30)
The result of this game will surely decide who finishes second in Group F behind Chelsea, however it is a myth that Russia is a difficult country to travel to in the Champions League, particularly if the home team is Spartak Moscow. They have won just 1/11 home group matches since 2001/02 and they have trailed at the break in seven of the games (seven +2.5 goals). All of Marseille’s six points in this group came from their two games against minnows Zilina. They have won just 3/11 away group games since 2007/08 and they have been beaten on seven occasions, although two of their wins were from three trips to lower-ranked opposition. Russian teams have won 3/4 unbeaten home fixtures against French sides this century.
Recommendation: No bet
Group F: Chelsea (4) v MSK Zilina (168) (Tues, 19:45)
As one might expect, Chelsea have a fantastic home record in the Champions League. They have won 15/20 group games since 2004/05 with no defeats and 15 clean sheets. Their record drops slightly to five wins and three draws when hosting teams ranked outside the top-50 with just one victory by three clear goals and three by two or more. Zilina appear to be one of the worst team’s to ever grace this competition. They have lost all four games, scoring just one goal for the concession of 15.
Recommendation: Chelsea win to nil 1.84, Betfair