Football / Preview / Champions League Gs5 Groups G Amp H

Champions League GS5: Groups G&H

Arsenal's surprise loss at Shakhtar and Braga's back-to-back victories over Partizan means that the Gunners can't afford to lose in Portugal tonight.

Arsenal's Cesc Fabregas



Group G: Ajax (Bettorlogic rank 30) v Real Madrid (2) (Tues, 19:45)

If Ajax fail to get a point here and AC Milan win at Auxerre then the Italians will qualify along with Real Madrid. Ajax have a great record in this competition, but this is the first year that they have qualified since 2005/06 and, as such, it has little consequence. They beat Auxerre in their last home game and gained a credible draw against Milan. Real Madrid look the finished article domestically. They are playing the exciting, attacking football that their fans desire and it is bringing great success. A point here will ensure they qualify as group winners and they have lost just 1/8 away group games since 2008/09. Furthermore, they have won 6/9 trips to teams with a Bettorlogic rank of 21-40 since 2001/02 with five W/W double results. Generally, teams ranked 21-40 have lost 11/19 home group fixtures against top-five ranked sides since 2005/06.

Recommendation: Real Madrid Win 2.25, Various


Group G: Auxerre (45) v AC Milan (10) (Tues, 19:45)

Auxerre must win this match if they are to keep any hopes of qualification alive, however they face an in-form AC Milan who are currently three points clear at the top of Serie A. The hosts are playing in their first Champions League since 2002/03, and they have beaten Ajax and lost to Real Madrid in their opening two home games. All of their three home matches in 2002/03 were goalless at the break as was their game against Madrid this term. Since 2005/06, Milan have won 5/14 away group games with four defeats and they have been tied at the break in half of the matches (eight -2.5 goals). Interestingly, the visitors have also drawn the first half of 9/11 matches against French opposition in this competition.

Recommendation: HT Draw 2.10, Various


Group H: Braga (47) v Arsenal (6) (Tues, 19:45)

Braga bounced back from defeats to Arsenal and Shakhtar with successive victories over Partizan Belgrade in this their maiden Champions League campaign. All of their four games so far have seen just one side net. Arsenal are not nearly as strong on the road as they are at home in this competition. They have won just 5/14 away group stage matches since 2006/07, but a draw here will be enough to see them through to the next round. Over a longer period, they have lost just 1/7 away games against sides with a Bettorlogic rank of 36-65 although they have tied four of the games with five HT stalemates. Portuguese sides have gone W6-D4-L5 hosting English opposition this century although they have drawn the first half in eight of the last 10 games.

Recommendation: No bet


Group H: Partizan Belgrade (82) v Shakhtar Donetsk (11) (Tues, 19:45)

Partizan are still searching for their first point of this campaign. The hosts have scored just one goal so far and their winless run in the Champions League has been extended to 10 – their only previous appearance was in 2003/04 when they drew all three home matches and lost all three away. Shakhtar have a good chance of topping Group H as they, arguably, have a better chance than Arsenal of grabbing six points in their final two games. They have won 4/5 Champions League fixtures and also three of their last five on the road. Teams ranked 51-100 have lost 20/29 home matches against sides ranked 6-15 since 2006/07 and seven of the last 10 losses have been by at least two goals.

Recommendation: No bet


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