Football / Preview / Topline 20 03 2010

Topline (20/03/2010)

Topline returns with 14 picks including a recommendation in Sunday's Premier League clash between Man Utd and Liverpool.

Everton's Mikel Arteta


Serie B: Reggina v Lecce (Fri, 20:00) - Result: 2-4

Over/Under: Seven of Reggina’s last 11 home matches have seen at least three goals as have nine of top-of-the-table Lecce’s 14 (64%) away fixtures this term (seven +3.5 goals). Further, all of the visitors four games at bottom-six teams have settled the +2.5 goals market (three +3.5 goals). We would be inclined to go for the +3.5 goals option at a juicier price, however we would have a small cover on the 1-1 correct score as that is how three of Lecce’s last five on the road have finished.

Recommendation: Split Stakes: 0.75pt +3.5 goals 4.50, Betfair
                                                            0.25pt Correct score 1-1 6.8, Betfair


Premier League: Everton v Bolton (Sat, 15:00) - Result: 2-0

Asian handicap: Everton have won their last six home games with five victories by two clear goals and they’ve won 18 of their 23 home games against bottom-half teams since 2007/08 with just one defeat. Moreover, they’ve had 11 W/Ws in those games including seven in the last 11 games. Bolton have lost 17 of their last 26 away games with 12 defeats by two clear goals as well as 12 of their 16 trips to top-half non-Big Four finishers since 2007/08 and teams currently in that position this term, with 10 L/Ls.

Recommendation: Everton Win -1.5 2.54, Bet365


Championship: Nottm Forest v Peterborough (Sat, 15:00) - Result: 1-0

Correct score: Forest have won 10 in-a-row at home with eight W/W doubles including recording the double result in each of their last five home matches against bottom-half teams. Interestingly, Forest have won either 1-0 or 2-0 in half (7/14) of their recent home fixtures. Peterborough have lost 13 of 18 away matches this season with eight by either the 1-0 or 2-0 score lines, including seven L/Ls in 10 trips to top-half teams (W0-D2-L8).

Recommendation: Split Stakes: Nottm Forest to Win 1-0 7.50, Victor Chandler
                                                            Nottm Forest to Win 2-0 7.80, Betfair


La Liga: Ath Bilbao v Getafe (Sat, 17:00) - Result: 2-2

HT/FT: Athletic Bilbao sit only one place above their opponents in the table despite being five points clear of them. The hosts have won all of their last five home matches with four W/Ws. Further, they have won seven of their last 13 games hosting teams placed 5th-11th in La Liga. Getafe are similar to Bilbao in that they are much stronger at home than on the road; they have gained just one point from their last five such games with three L/Ls. The visitors have also been beaten in 11 of their 20 trips to top-half non-Big Two teams since 2007/08 (nine L/Ls).

Recommendation: Athletic Bilbao W/W 3.70, Betfair


Ligue 1: Auxerre v Le Mans (Sat, 18:00) - Result: 2-1 (HT 1-0)

HT/FT: Auxerre are in excellent form and have won eight of 10 home matches against bottom-six finishers last season and teams currently in the bottom-six this term (W8-D2-L0) with four W/Ws and six wins-to-nil. Le Mans have lost 20 of their last 27 away games including seven of their last eight trips to top-six teams with four defeats without scoring and six L/Ls.

Recommendation: Auxerre W/W 2.66, Betfair


Eredivisie: Heracles v NAC Breda (Sat, 18:45) - Result: 3-0

Match outcome: Heracles have gained full-points from six of their last eight home matches with four W/Ws and they have won all of their last three home games against top-half non-Big Two teams. NAC Breda have been beaten in half (15/30) of their away fixtures since the start of last season and, moreover, they have a dreadful record travelling to top-six sides — W0-D1-L9 — over the same period.

Recommendation: Heracles Win 2.10, Bwin


Segunda: Real Sociedad v Levante (Sun, 11:00) - Result: 3-1

Match outcome: Real Sociedad have won 10 of their last 12 home matches and they have also gained full-points from all of their last three games hosting top-six sides. Levante have won just one of their last 10 on the road and they have been beaten in three of their last six games at top-six teams.

Recommendation: Real Sociedad Win 2.10, Skybet


Premier League: Man Utd v Liverpool (Sun, 13:30) - Result: 2-1

Win to nil: Man Utd have won their last seven home matches with a goals difference of +26 as they’ve scored at least three times in each game whilst not conceding once. In fact Utd have won 21 of 26 home matches against top-half teams since 2007/08 with 13 wins-to-nil, including three wins-to-nil (W5-D1-L1) against the Big Four. Moreover, while they’ve lost their last three meetings with Liverpool they’ve won four of their five home matches against them since 2004/05 with three wins-to-nil. Liverpool have scored just two goals in their last eight away games and have suffered five defeats without scoring in their last 12 away matches including both trips to Big Four teams this season.

Recommendation: Man Utd Win to nil 2.63, Bet365


Serie A: Bari v Parma (Sun, 14:00) - Result: 1-1

HT/FT: Both of these promoted sides are well-clear of the relegation zone. Bari recorded an impressive win at Lazio last weekend and the hosts have gained full-points from seven of their last nine home matches with six W/Ws. Parma have lost five of their last six on the road with three L/Ls.

Recommendation: Bari W/W 2.55, Betfair


Serie A: Cagliari v Lazio (Sun, 14:00) - Result: 0-2

Match outcome: Cagliari remain undefeated in 11 home matches with seven victories, five W/Ws and five wins-to-nil. Further, they have lost just one of their 13 home games against bottom-six teams since 2007/08 with six clean sheets. Lazio are a club in turmoil; they were beaten 2-0 at home to promoted Bari last and they have won just five games all season. The visitors have suffered defeat in six of their last eight trips to middle-third teams (four losses-to-nil) and also in all of their last five games when they have previously been on similar five-game away form (four points).

Recommendation: Cagliari Win to nil 3.75, Paddy Power


Championship: Cardiff v Watford (Sun, 15:00) - Result: 3-1 (HT 1-0)

HT/FT: Cardiff have won eight of their 17 home games this season with seven W/Ws and have won 12 of their last 16 matches hosting bottom-half teams with nine W/W doubles. Watford are in terrible form on the road having gone 11 matches without a win including eight defeats and five L/Ls (HT W0-D3-L8). Moreover, they’ve lost six of seven trips to top-six teams since 2008/09 with five L/Ls and also lost all six games at top-six finishers last season (five L/Ls).

Recommendation: Cardiff W/W 2.88, Betfair


La Liga: Mallorca v Atletico Madrid (Sun, 16:00) - Result: 4-1

Match outcome: Mallorca’s miraculous home form continued with a 3-0 victory over Gijon in their last game at the ONO Estadi. The hosts have won 11 of their 12 such games this term, keeping eight clean sheets in the process. Nine of the victories have been by two clear goals and six have been W/W doubles. Atletico Madrid have won just two away fixtures this term with seven defeats and seven HT losses in their 13 games. Furthermore, they have been beaten in six of nine winless trips to top-six sides with five L/Ls and four losses by two or more goals.

Recommendation: Mallorca Win 2.25, Skybet/Betfred


Super League: Kavala v Larissa (Sun, 17:00) - Result: 3-3

Match outcome: Kavala have won four of their last six matches overall and are unbeaten in 11 home games with six wins, and have won four of their five home games against bottom-half teams. Larissa have lost nine of their last 12 away games and have taken just one point from their six trips to top-half teams this season.

Recommendation: Kavala Win 2.56, Betfair


Super League: Panionios v Aris Salonika (Sun, 17:00) - Result: 1-1

Over/Under: Panionios have had three or more goals in 13 of their last 20 home matches as well as in eight of their 10 home games against top-half teams since 2008/09. Aris have had over-goals in 10 of their last 19 away games, as well as in eight of their last 13 trips to middle-third teams including in four of their last five.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.40, Sportingbet
























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