Football / Preview / Champions League 16 03 2010

Champions League

Following our successful efforts last week, here we preview the final four Last 16 ties as Chelsea attempt to overturn their first leg deficit to Inter Milan.

Barcelona's Andres Iniesta and Lionel Messi



Chelsea (Bettorlogic ranking 3) v Inter Milan (5) (Tues, 19:45)

HT outcome/score: Chelsea have lost just one of their 16 home knockout fixtures since 2003/04 and they have been leading at the break in nine of these games. Interestingly, they have been 1-0 up after 45 minutes in five of their last seven such matches. The Blues also have an impressive record hosting teams with a Bettorlogic rank of 1-5 over the same period — W5-D4-L1 with three W/Ws. Further, the hosts are undefeated in three second-legs following an away first-leg defeat — W2-D1-L0, HT W3-D0-L0. Inter Milan have a dreadful away record after the group stage; losing four of seven winless games since 2004/05, failing to score before the break on five occasions. Additionally, Inter have recorded L/Ls in five of their last seven trips to top-five sides.

Recommendation: Split Stakes: Chelsea HT Win 2.30, William Hill
                                                            HT Score: 1-0 3.60, Boyles


Sevilla (12) v CSKA Moscow (28) (Tues, 19:45)

HT/FT: Teams who have drawn 1-1 on the road in the first-leg of a Champions League fixture have qualified in 10 of the last 13 ties. Neither of these sides have reached the quarter-finals previously, however it is the hosts who are best placed to progress here. Sevilla have won six of their seven home matches in this competition and they have been leading at half-time in all of the games. Furthermore, teams ranked 6-15 have won nine of 13 games hosting teams ranked 16-30 in the knockout stages. CSKA Moscow have won just two away fixtures since 2004/05 with six defeats although six of the games have seen at least four scores.

Recommendation: Sevilla W/W 2.50, William Hill/Victor Chandler


Barcelona (1) v VfB Stuttgart (26) (Weds, 19:45)

Over/Under: Barcelona’s home record in the knockout stages is mediocre relative to their high standards; they have won just six of 11 games since 2004/05, seven of which saw no more than a brace of scores (five -1.5 goals). Barca have, however, won 11 of 14 undefeated home matches against teams ranked 16-30 with nine W/Ws and seven -2.5 goals games. Stuttgart have only played 10 away games in this competition with two wins and five defeats, although they were unbeaten on the road in Group G this season — W1-D2-L0 and all three games settled the -2.5 goals market.

Recommendation: -2.5 goals 2.64, Betfair


Bordeaux (9) v Olympiakos (30) (Weds, 19:45)

Win to nil: Teams who have won 1-0 in their away leg have qualified in 11/11 Champions League ties this century. Interestingly, the home team have won the second leg in eight of these matches with nine clean sheets and six W/Ws. Bordeaux are the only team in this competition to have won all of their last six fixtures; five of which were to nil. It should be noted, however, that this is Bordeaux’s first-ever home knockout match. The hosts have won all three of their home games against teams ranked 16-30 while Olympiakos have failed to net in all of their last four on the road with two L/Ls. Further, they have been beaten in six of nine trips to teams ranked 6-16 this century.

Recommendation: Bordeaux Win to nil 2.50, Bet365


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