NB Unless otherwise stated, all statistics refer to live (non-dead rubber) Tests not involving minnows played in the last 10 years.

Tea: Australia 265/5 (Hussey 77, Haddin 10), require 281 runs to win

Excluding teams who made fewer than 400 without being bowled out, there have been 41 sides reach 245-285 for five in their second innings, going on to an average score of 344. Only five of those 41 went on to make 400 or more, most recently Australia at Lord's chasing 522 in the second Test. 83% (34/41) of the sides failed to reach the lower spread price of 389 and more than half of them (23/41) totalled fewer than 350.

This is Mike Hussey's highest score in his last 23 Test innings, with Mr Cricket making 12 previous scores of more than 75 against non-minnows. His average from those 12 is 140.7 (117.3 runs per innings), going past 114 in seven of them and making six scores of 130 or more.

Match odds: England 1.05, Australia 32, Draw 38 (Betfair)

Australia 2nd Innings Runs 389-397 (SI)

Australia 375 Runs or more 1.7 (Betfair)

Hussey Runs 109-114 (SI)

Haddin Runs 41-45 (SI)

Lunch: Australia 171/2 (Ponting 44, Hussey 31), require 375 runs to win

Excluding teams who made fewer than 400 without being bowled out, the average score made by sides on 160-180 for two in their second innnigs is 377. Just over than a third (15/42) of them made it past the higher spread of 418, with 57% (24/42) not reaching the lower spread of 403. The average of the nine scores in that sample that were in the fourth innings is only 325, with none of those nine being in excess of 418.

Since 1946, there have been 34 sides reach 150-190 for two in pursuit of a target of 400 or more. In only 20 of those did the chasing side manage to bat out 150 overs without being dismissed or reach their target, losing all 20. The average score made by the chasers is 325, with just two sides making more than 418 and nearly half (9/20) not reaching 300.

Only five of Ricky Ponting's 36 Test centuries against non-minnows have been made in the second innings with his last coming more than three years ago. Over his career he does average 104.2 in the second innings once in the 40s (69.4 runs per innings), although he has gone past 90 in just seven of 22 such innings albeit with six not out scores of fewer than 90. In both innings, he has exceeded 90 in only four of his last 20 innings having already made 40, averaging 90.9 in that time.

Match odds: England 1.25, Australia 6.0, Draw 21 (Betfair)

Australia 2nd Innings Runs 403-418 (SI)

Australia 425 Runs or more 2.01 (Betfair)

Ponting Runs 85-90 (SI)

Hussey Runs 68-73 (SI)