NB Unless otherwise stated, all statistics refer to live (non-dead rubber) Tests not involving minnows played in the last 10 years.

Stumps: England 307/8 (Broad 26, Harmison 0)

There have been 101 instances in the last 10 years of a team making 285-330 for eight in its first innings and only 27 went on to reach 350. The average total made is 335 with two third of the teams making fewer than the lower spread of 343. England's average score from 19 such games is 327 with just three scores in excess of 350, while Australia's average total allowed is 337 from 13 matches (nine scores under 343).

The average value of the final two wickets in the first innings of the match when the batting side lost its eighth wicket for 285-330 is 39 runs, with a little under half (16/36) of the sides adding more than 42 runs for the ninth- and tenth-wicket partnerships. Just under a third (11/36) of the games were drawn with the bowling side winning 15 matches (42%) to the batters' 10 (28%).

Stuart Broad averages 62.3 once in the twenties in Tests (47 runs per innings), reaching his half-century as often as he has failed to make 40 (both 5/12), including scores of 55 and 61 in the series already.

Match odds: England 3.35, Australia 2.06, Draw 4.6 (Betfair)

England 1st Innings Runs 343-349 (SI)

England 350 Runs or more 2.0 (Betfair)

Broad Runs 40-44 (SI)

Harmison Runs 10-13 (SI)

Tea: England 180/3 (Bell 72, Trott 3)

Less than a third of teams reaching 170-190 for three in their first innings have made it up to the lower spread price of 416, with the average total made by teams in that position being 392. England were batting in 34 of the games in that sample, averaging 389 and making fewer than 416 in 65% (22/34) of their innings. The average score made by the 25 teams batting against Australia in that time is 379 (405 in eight games since the retirements of Warne and McGrath), with only seven teams making 416 or more (four of eight since the end of the last Ashes series).

Of the 85 teams reaching this position in the first innings of the match, 65% (55/85) failed to reach 416, averaging 394. 40% of those games ended in a draw, with the batting side winning slightly more (32% to 28%) of the remaining matches. The eight such games in England over the last five years all saw totals of 400 or more, with five scores of at least 500 — all made by England themselves. In all countries over the 10 years, England are W7-D9-L5 from the sample of 85, averaging 420 with 10 totals in excess of 431. Australia are W7-D3-L3 form 13 games in the field (W1-D2-L1 without Warne and McGrath), allowing an average score of 410 and six totals of 431 plus (three of four since the end of the last Ashes series).

This is Ian Bell's 13th highest score (against non-minnows) in Test cricket, averaging 143 from this position (108 runs per innings). He has made only one score of 120 or more in his career though in the previous 12 — 199 against South Africa last year — although that does include three unbeaten scores of 100, 106 and 109.

Match odds: England 3.55, Australia 3.3, Draw 2.36 (Betfair)

England 1st Innings Runs 416-431 (SI)

England 425 Runs or more 2.1 (Betfair)

Bell Runs 115-120 (SI)

Trott Runs 43-48 (SI)

Lunch: England 108/1 (Strauss 50, Bell 41)

The average score made by teams reaching 100-120 for the loss of one first innings wicket over the last 10 years is 421, with 55% of sides falling short of 442. England have been in a similar position 38 times in that period, making an average total of 403 and fewer than 442 in roughly two thirds (25/38) of those games. In that time, only 16 teams have got to 100-120 for one against Australia, with their average total 379 and just three sides going past 457.

There have been 80 Tests in the last 10 years in which the side batting first has reached 100-120 for one, producing an average total of 436 and only marginally more (39/80) falling short of 442 than going past 457 (37/80). A little over a third (29/80) of the games ended in a draw, with the team batting first winning roughly 40% (W31-D29-L20) of the time. England are W10-D8-L7 from this position, while teams batting against Australia are W3-D2-L4.

Strauss has converted 18 of his 32 Test 50s into hundreds (including an unbeaten 94), including 11 of his 19 in the first innings of a Test. He has been dismissed for fewer than 70 in five of those 19 innings — averaging 127 once in the seventies with average ton-ups of 30 — but has made 107 or more the majority (11/19) of the times he has got to this position. Ian Bell averages 106 once in the forties in his first innings (86 runs per innings) with six centuries. He has made fewer than 84 in 10 of 17 such innings, including in seven of his last 10.

Match odds: England 3.4, Australia 4.1, Draw 2.12 (Betfair)

England 1st Innings Runs 442-457 (SI)

England 450 Runs or more 2.0 (Betfair)

Strauss Runs 102-107 (SI)

Bell Runs 84-89 (SI)