NB Unless otherwise stated, all statistics refer to live (non-dead rubber) Tests not involving minnows played in the last 10 years.

Stumps: Australia 80/0 (Watson 31, Katich 42), require 466 runs to win

Excluding teams who made fewer than 400 without being bowled out, the average score made by sides on 70-90 for no wicket in their second innnigs is 337. Fewer than a third (12/37) of them made it past the higher spread of 409, with more than half of them (20/37) failing to make it to 300. Only 12 of those innings were the fourth of the match, with the average score in those just 226 with a maximum of 297.

Since 1946, there have been 50 sides begin a chase of 400 with a 50 partnership. In only 30 of those did the chasing side manage to bat out 150 overs without being dismissed or reaching their target, losing 27 of the 30 overall with two draws. Just one side made a total of 400 or more, when Sunil Gavaskar made 221 — at the Oval — as India totalled 429/8 in pursuit of 438. Nearly three quarters of the teams (22/30) failed to reach 300.

Simon Katich averages 87.7 once in the 40s in Tests, including an average of 113 in the second innings (87.9 runs per innings), although he has made more than 87 in only a third (9/27) of his times at the crease. Six of those nine have come in his 17 such innings as opener, all of them centuries (average ton-ups of 7.8 from this position).

Match odds: England 1.31, Australia 5.1, Draw 20 (Betfair)

Australia 2nd Innings Runs 394-409 (SI)

Australia 425 Runs or more 1.9 (Betfair)

Watson Runs 66-71 (SI)

Katich Runs 82-87 (SI)

Tea: England 290/7 (Trott 83, Swann 34), lead by 462 runs

The average score made by the 43 teams reaching 270-310 for seven in their second innings is 330, with more than half of them (27/47) not making it to 327and fewer than a third going past 335. England's average from 10 innings is 335, making more than that figure only three times. Australia have allowed only one score of 336 or more in eight innings in that sample, averaging a total of 315 conceded.

There have been 52 games in the last 30 years where a team has had to chase 450 or more and bat for at least 150 overs. Only one side managed to survive — Michael Atherton's Test at the Wanderers in 1995 — although england had to bat out only 165 overs in that game. The average score made by the chasing team is 262, reaching 300 less than a third (17/52) of the time and only just over half (28/52) making it to 250.

Match odds: England 1.2, Australia 8.2, Draw 18.5 (Betfair)

England 2nd Innings Runs 327-335 (SI)

England 350 Runs or more 2.0 (Betfair)

Trott Runs 103-107 (SI)

Swann Runs 42-45 (SI)

Lunch: England 157/4 (Trott 50, Prior 0), lead by 329 runs

Excluding teams who made fewer than 250 without being bowled out, the average score made by teams on 140-175 for four in the second innings is 281, with only just over a third (40/110) of them making more than 295 and more than half (62/110) totalling fewer than 285. England average 266 from 14 games in that sample, exceeding 295 as often a falling short of 285 (6/14). Only three of 11 sides batting in a similar position against Australia in that time have put on more than 295, averaging 260.

There have been 83 Tests over the last 30 years in which a team has been 280-380 ahead with six wickets remaining in the third innings of the match. Those teams went W52-D30-L1, including a W26-D9-L1 mark in the faster-scoring period of the last 10 years. Of the 42 Tests in that sample of 83 where the first two innings had totalled fewer than 600 runs the side batting third won 31, including 23 of their last 26. The  most recent entry on that list however, is England's loss in Chennai over the winter where India chased down 387 with six wickets to spare.

Match odds: England 1.26, Australia 7.8, Draw 11.5 (Betfair)

England 2nd Innings Runs 285-295 (SI)

England 325 Runs or more 2.02 (Betfair)

Trott Runs 79-83 (SI)

Prior Runs 28-32 (SI)